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Predicting Experimental Choice Behavior and Life Outcomes from a Survey Measure of Present Bias

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  • Pia Rosina Pinger

    (University of Bonn)

Abstract

Using a representative sample of the German adult population, this paper investigates the extent to which a survey measure of present bias predicts present-biased choice behavior in incentive-compatible experiments and real-world outcomes related to investments in financial assets and human capital. The results are threefold. First, the survey and experimental measures of present bias are significantly related. Second, the survey measure predicts choices between immediate and delayed monetary payoffs in an incentive-compatible experiment, but not between payoffs at two future points in time. Third, the survey measure of present bias is a good predictor of the propensity to save money, to obtain a university degree, and to maintain a healthy life style. In most specifications, the survey measure tends to be a stronger predictor of real life outcomes than the experimentally elicited measure of present bias.

Suggested Citation

  • Pia Rosina Pinger, 2017. "Predicting Experimental Choice Behavior and Life Outcomes from a Survey Measure of Present Bias," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(3), pages 2162-2172.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-17-00185
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Tim Friehe & Markus Pannenberg, 2020. "Time preferences and political regimes: evidence from reunified Germany," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 33(1), pages 349-387, January.
    3. Steve Briand, 2018. "Time Inconsistency and Delayed Retirement Decision: the French Pension Bonus," Working Papers hal-01891755, HAL.
    4. Thomas Meissner & Xavier Gassmann & Corinne Faure & Joachim Schleich, 2023. "Individual characteristics associated with risk and time preferences: A multi country representative survey," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 66(1), pages 77-107, February.
    5. Schröder Carsten & König Johannes & Fedorets Alexandra & Goebel Jan & Grabka Markus M. & Lüthen Holger & Metzing Maria & Schikora Felicitas & Liebig Stefan, 2020. "The economic research potentials of the German Socio-Economic Panel study," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 21(3), pages 335-371, September.
    6. Kaufmann, Marc & Machado, Joël & Verheyden, Bertrand, 2021. "Why Do Migrants Stay Unexpectedly? Misperceptions and Implications for Integration," IZA Discussion Papers 14155, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    time discounting; present bias; self-control; education; health behavior;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D9 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics
    • C9 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments

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