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Inflationary Expectations In Ethiopia: Some Preliminary Results

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Author Info
LOENING, Josef ()
TAKADA, Hideki ()
Abstract

We analyze short-run dynamics of inflation in Ethiopia, using a parsimonious error-correction model fitted with monthly observations. Our findings show that increased money supply and the nominal exchange rate significantly affect inflation in the short-run. Agricultural output shocks, proxied by a cereal-weighted agricultural production index, are also important. By providing an accommodative financial environment, our findings suggest that monetary policy in Ethiopia triggers price inertia, which has large and persistent effects. A simulation suggests that monetary policy alone may be unfeasible to control inflation effectively. To circumvent an extreme tightening with discouraging impacts on growth, additional measures are needed. These should improve the transparency and credibility of monetary policy, and reduce structural barriers that affect price formation and market efficiency.

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Article provided by Euro-American Association of Economic Development in its journal Applied Econometrics and International Development.

Volume (Year): 8 (2008)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 159-176
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Handle: RePEc:eaa:aeinde:v:8:y:2008:i:2_13

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Related research
Keywords: Ethiopia; Error-correction Model; Inflation; Inertia.;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
O55 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa

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  1. Batini, Nicoletta & Nelson, Edward, 2001. "The Lag from Monetary Policy Actions to Inflation: Friedman Revisited," International Finance, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 4(3), pages 381-400, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Alexis Anagnostopoulos & Omar Licandro & Italo Bove & Karl Schlag, 2007. "An Evolutionary Theory of Inflation Inertia," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(2-3), pages 433-443, 04-05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Conrad, C. & Karanasos, M., 2005. "On the inflation-uncertainty hypothesis in the USA, Japan and the UK: a dual long memory approach," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 327-343, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Ball, Laurence, 1992. "Why does high inflation raise inflation uncertainty?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 371-388, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Dexter, Albert S. & Levi, Maurice D. & Nault, Barrie R., 2002. "Sticky prices: the impact of regulation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 797-821, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Dick Durevall & Njuguna S. Ndung'u, 1999. "A Dynamic Model of Inflation for Kenya, 1974-1996," IMF Working Papers 99/97, International Monetary Fund.
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  7. Almeida, Heitor & Bonomo, Marco, 2002. "Optimal state-dependent rules, credibility, and inflation inertia," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(7), pages 1317-1336, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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