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Inflation uncertainty, growth uncertainty, oil prices, and output growth in the UK

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  • Ramprasad Bhar
  • Girijasankar Mallik

Abstract

This study examines the transmission and response of inflation uncertainty and output uncertainty on inflation and output growth in the UK using a bi-variate EGARCH model. Results suggest that inflation uncertainty has positive and significant effects on inflation before the inflation-targeting period, but that the effect is significantly negative after the inflation-targeting period. On the other hand, output uncertainty has a negative and significant effect on inflation and a positive effect on growth, while oil price rises significantly increase inflation for the UK. Results also indicate that inflation uncertainty significantly reduces output growth before and after the inflation-targeting period. These findings are robust and the Generalized impulse response functions corroborate the conclusions. These results have important implications for an inflation-targeting monetary policy, and for stabilization policy in general. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Ramprasad Bhar & Girijasankar Mallik, 2013. "Inflation uncertainty, growth uncertainty, oil prices, and output growth in the UK," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 1333-1350, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:45:y:2013:i:3:p:1333-1350
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-012-0650-9
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    2. Buncic, Daniel & Piras, Gion Donat, 2016. "Heterogeneous agents, the financial crisis and exchange rate predictability," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 313-359.
    3. KARGI, Bilal, 2014. "The Effects of Oil Prices On Inflation and Growth: Time Series Analysis In Turkish Economy For 1988:01-2013:04 Period," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 5(2), pages 29-36.
    4. Bernard Njindan Iyke & Sin-Yu Ho, 2019. "Inflation, Inflation Uncertainty, and Growth: Evidence from Ghana," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 13(2), June.
    5. Zakaria, Muhammad & Khiam, Shahzeb & Mahmood, Hamid, 2021. "Influence of oil prices on inflation in South Asia: Some new evidence," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    6. Borivoje Krušković, 2020. "Exchange Rate Targeting Versus Inflation Targeting: Empirical Analysis of the Impact on Employment and Economic Growth," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 9(2), pages 67-85.
    7. Rajeev K. Goel & Michael A. Nelson, 2021. "How do firms use innovations to hedge against economic and political uncertainty? Evidence from a large sample of nations," The Journal of Technology Transfer, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 407-430, April.
    8. Li, Lei & Yin, Libo & Zhou, Yimin, 2016. "Exogenous shocks and the spillover effects between uncertainty and oil price," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 224-234.
    9. Libo Yin, 2016. "Does oil price respond to macroeconomic uncertainty? New evidence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 921-938, November.
    10. Dimitrios Bakas & Georgios Chortareas & Georgios Magkonis, 2019. "Volatility and growth: a not so straightforward relationship," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 71(4), pages 874-907.
    11. Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2014. "Inflation and Inflation Volatility in Australia," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 33(2), pages 163-185, June.
    12. Buncic, Daniel & Moretto, Carlo, 2015. "Forecasting copper prices with dynamic averaging and selection models," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 1-38.
    13. Le, Thai-Ha & Le, Anh Tu & Le, Ha-Chi, 2021. "The historic oil price fluctuation during the Covid-19 pandemic: What are the causes?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    14. Le, Thai-Ha & Boubaker, Sabri & Bui, Manh Tien & Park, Donghyun, 2023. "On the volatility of WTI crude oil prices: A time-varying approach with stochastic volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    15. Afsin Sahin & Volkan Ulke, 2015. "Farkli Belirsizlik Duzeylerinde Faiz Oraninin Makroekonomik Degiskenlere Etkileri : Turkiye Uzerine Etkilesimli Vektor Otoregresif Modeli Uygulamasi," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 15(1), pages 65-93.
    16. Nora Abu Asab & Juan Carlos Cuestas & Alberto Montagnoli, 2018. "Inflation targeting or exchange rate targeting: Which framework supports the goal of price stability in emerging market economies?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(8), pages 1-21, August.
    17. Pradeep, Siddhartha, 2022. "Impact of diesel price reforms on asymmetricity of oil price pass-through to inflation: Indian perspective," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    18. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Stephen M. Miller & Rangan Gupta, 2019. "Time–frequency relationship between US inflation and inflation uncertainty: evidence from historical data," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 66(5), pages 673-702, November.
    19. Sun, Qingru & An, Haizhong & Gao, Xiangyun & Guo, Sui & Wang, Ze & Liu, Siyao & Wen, Shaobo, 2019. "Effects of crude oil shocks on the PPI system based on variance decomposition network analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    20. Harold Glenn A. Valera & Mark J. Holmes & Gazi M. Hassan, 2018. "Is inflation targeting credible in Asia? A panel GARCH approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 523-546, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; Inflation uncertainty; EGARCH; Impulse response; E31; E52; E63; E64;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • E64 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Incomes Policy; Price Policy

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