IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bpj/bejmac/v19y2019i1p18n2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Is risk shock a key factor driving business cycles in China?

Author

Listed:
  • Li Zhe

    (School of Economics and Key Laboratory of Mathematical Economics, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, 777 Guoding Road, Shanghai 200433, China)

  • Luo Shuixing

    (School of Economics, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, Shanghai 200433, China)

Abstract

This paper studies the impact of risk shock on the Chinese economy using a New-Keynesian model with financial frictions. The study shows that risk shock is an important driving force for the fluctuations of GDP, investment, capital, credit, and credit spread in China. However, the role of risk shock in driving China’s business cycles is not as crucial as in the US economy (see Christiano, Motto, and Rostagno 2014). There are three main reasons that explain the different performance of risk shocks in China and the US: the volatility of risk shock, the effect of equity shock, and the influence of macroeconomic policies are all different in China and in the US. Our paper contributes to an understanding of the business cycles in China during the period from 1999 to 2015, particularly in comparison with business cycles in the US.

Suggested Citation

  • Li Zhe & Luo Shuixing, 2019. "Is risk shock a key factor driving business cycles in China?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(1), pages 1-18, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:bejmac:v:19:y:2019:i:1:p:18:n:2
    DOI: 10.1515/bejm-2017-0010
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1515/bejm-2017-0010
    Download Restriction: For access to full text, subscription to the journal or payment for the individual article is required.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1515/bejm-2017-0010?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393, Elsevier.
    2. Jones, John Bailey, 2002. "Has fiscal policy helped stabilize the postwar U.S. economy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 709-746, May.
    3. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Pablo Guerron-Quintana & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Martin Uribe, 2011. "Risk Matters: The Real Effects of Volatility Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2530-2561, October.
    4. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
    5. Anders C. Johansson & Xunan Feng, 2016. "The state advances, the private sector retreats? Firm effects of China’s great stimulus programme," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 40(6), pages 1635-1668.
    6. Carlstrom, Charles T & Fuerst, Timothy S, 1997. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(5), pages 893-910, December.
    7. Du, Jun & Liu, Xiaoxuan & Zhou, Ying, 2014. "State advances and private retreats? — Evidence of aggregate productivity decomposition in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 459-474.
    8. Backus, David & Ferriere, Axelle & Zin, Stanley, 2015. "Risk and ambiguity in models of business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 42-63.
    9. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Balke, Nathan S. & Martínez-García, Enrique & Zeng, Zheng, 2021. "In no uncertain terms: The effect of uncertainty on credit frictions and monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    2. Waters, George A., 2013. "Quantity rationing of credit and the Phillips curve," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 68-80.
    3. Meixing Dai & Frédéric Dufourt & Qiao Zhang, 2013. "Large Scale Asset Purchases with segmented mortgage and corporate loan markets," Working Papers of BETA 2013-20, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    4. Yasuo Hirose & Takushi Kurozumi, 2012. "Do Investment-Specific Technological Changes Matter For Business Fluctuations? Evidence From Japan," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(2), pages 208-230, May.
    5. Meh, Césaire A. & Moran, Kevin, 2010. "The role of bank capital in the propagation of shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 555-576, March.
    6. Lawrence J. Christiano & Roberto Motto & Massimo Rostagno, 2003. "The Great Depression and the Friedman-Schwartz hypothesis," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 1119-1215.
    7. Adam Brzezinski & Yao Chen & Nuno Palma & Felix Ward, 2019. "The vagaries of the sea: evidence on the real effects of money from maritime disasters in the Spanish Empire," Working Papers 0170, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).
    8. Zhang, Yahong, 2019. "Household debt, financial intermediation, and monetary policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 230-257.
    9. Fiorella De Fiore & Oreste Tristani, 2011. "Credit and the Natural Rate of Interest," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(2‐3), pages 407-440, March.
    10. Ethan Cohen-Cole & Enrique Martínez-García, 2011. "The Balance Sheet Channel," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Rodrigo Alfaro (ed.),Financial Stability, Monetary Policy, and Central Banking, edition 1, volume 15, chapter 9, pages 255-297, Central Bank of Chile.
    11. Ali Dib & Ian Christensen, 2005. "Monetary Policy in an Estimated DSGE Model with a Financial Accelerator," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 314, Society for Computational Economics.
    12. Francisco Covas & Yahong Zhang, 2010. "Price‐level versus inflation targeting with financial market imperfections," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(4), pages 1302-1332, November.
    13. Juan Pablo Medina & Claudio Soto, 2007. "The Chilean Business Cycles Through the Lens of a Stochastic General Equilibrium Model," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 457, Central Bank of Chile.
    14. Reiter Michael & Sveen Tommy & Weinke Lutz, 2020. "Agency costs and the monetary transmission mechanism," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(1), pages 1-11, January.
    15. Erica X. N. Li & Haitao Li & Shujing Wang & Shujing Wang, 2019. "Macroeconomic Risks and Asset Pricing: Evidence from a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(8), pages 3585-3604, August.
    16. Jorge Alberto Fornero & Roque Esteban Montero & Andrés J. Yany, 2017. "Reassessing the Effects of Foreign Monetary Policy on Output: New Evidence from Structural and Agnostic Identification Procedures," Investigación Conjunta-Joint Research, in: Ángel Estrada García & Alberto Ortiz Bolaños (ed.), International Spillovers of Monetary Policy, edition 1, chapter 3, pages 31-72, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA.
    17. Anna Belianska & Aurélien Eyquem & Céline Poilly, 2021. "The Transmission Channels of Government Spending Uncertainty," AMSE Working Papers 2115, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    18. Kirchner Philipp, 2020. "On Shadow Banking and Financial Frictions in DSGE Modeling," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 71(2), pages 101-133, August.
    19. Blattner Tobias S. & Swarbrick Jonathan M., 2021. "Monetary Policy and Cross-Border Interbank Market Fragmentation: Lessons from the Crisis," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(1), pages 323-368, January.
    20. Alejandro Justiniano & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2008. "The Time-Varying Volatility of Macroeconomic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 604-641, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    financial frictions; New Keynesian; risk shocks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bpj:bejmac:v:19:y:2019:i:1:p:18:n:2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.degruyter.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.