IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/jorssa/v184y2021i1p179-200.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Bayesian structural time series analysis of the effect of basic income on crime: Evidence from the Alaska Permanent Fund

Author

Listed:
  • Richard Dorsett

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of Alaska’s Permanent Fund Dividend on crime. The Dividend has been payable annually to state residents since 1982 and is the world’s longest‐running example of a basic income. Initially universal, from 1989 onwards eligibility was withdrawn from an increasing proportion of those in prison. A Bayesian structural time series estimator is used to simulate Alaskan crime rates in the counterfactual no‐Dividend case. A comparison with actual rates provides an estimate of the Dividend’s impact. This does not provide strong evidence of an effect. However, incorporating information on Dividend amounts suggests the size of payments is important, with larger amounts reducing crime. There is no evidence that this effect is reinforced by the 1989 change to eligibility. The results demonstrate the potential for a basic income to encourage positive outcomes and lend support to payment being universal rather than conditional.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Dorsett, 2021. "A Bayesian structural time series analysis of the effect of basic income on crime: Evidence from the Alaska Permanent Fund," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 184(1), pages 179-200, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssa:v:184:y:2021:i:1:p:179-200
    DOI: 10.1111/rssa.12619
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/rssa.12619
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/rssa.12619?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gary S. Becker, 1974. "Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach," NBER Chapters, in: Essays in the Economics of Crime and Punishment, pages 1-54, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. David S. Lee & Justin McCrary, 2017. "The Deterrence Effect of Prison: Dynamic Theory and Evidence," Advances in Econometrics, in: Regression Discontinuity Designs, volume 38, pages 73-146, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    3. Brett Watson & Mouhcine Guettabi & Matthew Reimer, 2020. "Universal Cash and Crime," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 678-689, October.
    4. Hum, Derek & Simpson, Wayne, 1993. "Economic Response to a Guaranteed Annual Income: Experience from Canada and the United States," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 11(1), pages 263-296, January.
    5. Alberto Abadie & Javier Gardeazabal, 2003. "The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case Study of the Basque Country," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 113-132, March.
    6. David S. Blakeslee & Ram Fishman, 2018. "Weather Shocks, Agriculture, and Crime: Evidence from India," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 53(3), pages 750-782.
    7. Damon Jones & Ioana Marinescu, 2022. "The Labor Market Impacts of Universal and Permanent Cash Transfers: Evidence from the Alaska Permanent Fund," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 315-340, May.
    8. Chang-Tai Hsieh, 2003. "Do Consumers React to Anticipated Income Changes? Evidence from the Alaska Permanent Fund," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 397-405, March.
    9. Evans, William N. & Moore, Timothy J., 2011. "The short-term mortality consequences of income receipt," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(11), pages 1410-1424.
    10. Choe, Jongmook, 2008. "Income inequality and crime in the United States," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 31-33, October.
    11. Philip K. Robins, 1985. "A Comparison of the Labor Supply Findings from the Four Negative Income Tax Experiments," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 20(4), pages 567-582.
    12. Abadie, Alberto & Diamond, Alexis & Hainmueller, Jens, 2010. "Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California’s Tobacco Control Program," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(490), pages 493-505.
    13. Hilary Hoynes & Jesse Rothstein, 2019. "Universal Basic Income in the United States and Advanced Countries," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 11(1), pages 929-958, August.
    14. Scott Goldsmith, 2012. "The Economic and Social Impacts of the Permanent Fund Dividend on Alaska," Exploring the Basic Income Guarantee, in: Karl Widerquist & Michael W. Howard (ed.), Alaska’s Permanent Fund Dividend, chapter 0, pages 49-63, Palgrave Macmillan.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Guettabi, Mouhcine & Witman, Allison, 2023. "Universal cash transfers and prescription utilization: Evidence from the Alaska permanent fund dividend," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    2. Yonzan, Nishant & Timilsina, Laxman & Kelly, Inas Rashad, 2024. "Economic incentives surrounding fertility: Evidence from Alaska’s permanent fund dividend," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    3. Damon Jones & Ioana Marinescu, 2022. "The Labor Market Impacts of Universal and Permanent Cash Transfers: Evidence from the Alaska Permanent Fund," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 315-340, May.
    4. Nishant Yonzan & Laxman Timilsina & Inas Rashad Kelly, 2020. "Economic Incentives Surrounding Fertility: Evidence from Alaska's Permanent Fund Dividend," NBER Working Papers 26712, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Ioana Marinescu, 2018. "No Strings Attached: The Behavioral Effects of U.S. Unconditional Cash Transfer Programs," NBER Working Papers 24337, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Fuchs-Schündeln, N. & Hassan, T.A., 2016. "Natural Experiments in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 923-1012, Elsevier.
    7. Lepage, Louis-Pierre, 2020. "Are criminals strategic? Offender responses to drug sentencing cutoffs," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    8. Gonzalez, Felipe & Prem, Mounu, 2020. "Police Repression and Protest Behavior: Evidence from Student Protests in Chile," SocArXiv 3xk5r, Center for Open Science.
    9. Morita, Hatsuru, 2018. "Criminal prosecution and physician supply," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 1-11.
    10. Paolo Pinotti, 2012. "The economic costs of organized crime: evidence from southern Italy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 868, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    11. Ryan Abman & Hisham Foad, 2022. "Border Walls and Crime: Evidence From the Secure Fence Act," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 48(2), pages 167-197, April.
    12. Diego Zambiasi & Steven Stillman, 2020. "The Pot Rush: Is Legalized Marijuana A Positive Local Amenity?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 58(2), pages 667-679, April.
    13. Andrew Bibler & Mouhcine Guettabi & Matthew N. Reimer, 2023. "Universal Cash Transfers and Labor Market Outcomes," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(1), pages 198-224, January.
    14. Saloni Khurana & Kanika Mahajan, 2022. "Public Safety for Women: Is Regulation of Social Drinking Spaces Effective?," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(1), pages 164-182, January.
    15. Hyunwoong Pyun, 2019. "Exploring causal relationship between Major League Baseball games and crime: a synthetic control analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 365-383, July.
    16. Brett Watson & Mouhcine Guettabi & Matthew Reimer, 2020. "Universal Cash and Crime," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 678-689, October.
    17. Robert M. Feinberg & Daniel Kuehn, 2020. "Does a Guaranteed Basic Income Encourage Entrepreneurship? Evidence from Alaska," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 57(3), pages 607-626, November.
    18. John S. Heywood & Bryan Weber, 2019. "University-provided transit and crime in an urban neighborhood," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 62(3), pages 467-495, June.
    19. Alexander James & Nathaly Rivera & Brock Smith, 2022. "Cash Transfers and Voter Turnout," Working Papers 2022-01, University of Alaska Anchorage, Department of Economics.
    20. John A. List & James J. Murphy & Michael K. Price & Alexander G. James, 2019. "Do Appeals to Donor Benefits Raise More Money than Appeals to Recipient Benefits? Evidence from a Natural Field Experiment with Pick.Click.Give," NBER Working Papers 26559, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jorssa:v:184:y:2021:i:1:p:179-200. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rssssea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.