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Should Investors Avoid All Actively Managed Mutual Funds? A Study in Bayesian Performance Evaluation

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Klaas P. Baks

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Abstract

This paper analyzes mutual-fund performance from an investor's perspective. We study the portfolio-choice problem for a mean-variance investor choosing among a risk-free asset, index funds, and actively managed mutual funds. To solve this problem, we employ a Bayesian method of performance evaluation; a key innovation in our approach is the development of a flexible set of prior beliefs about managerial skill. We then apply our methodology to a sample of 1,437 mutual funds. We find that some extremely skeptical prior beliefs nevertheless lead to economically significant allocations to active managers. Copyright The American Finance Association 2001.

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Article provided by American Finance Association in its journal The Journal of Finance.

Volume (Year): 56 (2001)
Issue (Month): 1 (02)
Pages: 45-85
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Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:56:y:2001:i:1:p:45-85

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Lubos Pastor & Robert F. Stambaugh, . "Evaluating and Investing in Equity Mutual Funds," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 10-00, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Gray, Wesley & Kern, Andrew, 2008. "Fundamental Value Investors: Characteristics and Performance," MPRA Paper 12620, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  3. Randolph Cohen & Joshua Coval & Lubos Pastor, 2002. "Judging Fund Managers by the Company They Keep," NBER Working Papers 9359, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Luboš Pástor & Robert F. Stambaugh, . "Investing in Equity Mutual Funds," CRSP working papers 532, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Jennifer Huang & Clemens Sialm & Hanjiang Zhang, 2009. "Risk Shifting and Mutual Fund Performance," NBER Working Papers 14903, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Malcolm Baker & Lubomir Litov & Jessica A. Wachter & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2004. "Can Mutual Fund Managers Pick Stocks? Evidence from the Trades Prior to Earnings Announcements," NBER Working Papers 10685, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Dariusz Stanko, 2003. "Performance Evaluation of Public Pension Funds: The Reformed Pension System in Poland," Finance 0306002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  8. Lubos Pastor & Robert F. Stambaugh, 2007. "Predictive Systems: Living with Imperfect Predictors," NBER Working Papers 12814, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Missaka Warusawitharana & Jessica A. Wachter, 2009. "What is the chance that the equity premium varies over time? evidence from predictive regressions," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2009-26, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  10. Marcin Kacperczyk & Clemens Sialm & Lu Zheng, 2005. "Unobserved Actions of Mutual Funds," NBER Working Papers 11766, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Christopher S. Jones & Jay Shanken, 2002. "Mutual Fund Performance with Learning Across Funds," NBER Working Papers 9392, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Colm Kearney & Valerio Poti, 2004. "Idiosyncratic Risk, Market Risk and Correlation Dynamics in European Equity Markets," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp015, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
  13. Colm Kearney & Valerio Poti, 2005. "Correlation Dynamics in European Equity Markets," Finance 0507008, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Marcin Kacperczyk & Clemens Sialm & Lu Zheng, 2004. "On the Industry Concentration of Actively Managed Equity Mutual Funds," NBER Working Papers 10770, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. JOSHUA D. COVAL & David Hirshleifer & TYLER G. SHUMWAY, 2004. "Can Individual Investors Beat the Market?," Finance 0412005, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  16. Jay Shanken & Ane Tamayo, 2001. "Risk, Mispricing, and Asset Allocation: Conditioning on Dividend Yield," NBER Working Papers 8666, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Goriaev, A.P. & Nijman, T.E. & Werker, B.J.M., 2002. "The dynamics of the impact of past performance on mutual fund flows," Discussion Paper 2, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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