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The Baby Boom and Baby Bust

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Author Info
Jeremy Greenwood
Ananth Seshadri
Guillaume Vandenbroucke

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Abstract

What caused the baby boom? And can it be explained within the context of the secular decline in fertility that has occurred over the last 200 years? The hypothesis is that:(a) The secular decline in fertility is due to the relentless rise in real wages that increased the opportunity cost of having children;(b) The baby boom is explained by an atypical burst of technological progress in the household sector that occurred in the middle of the last century. This lowered the cost of having children.A model is developed in an attempt to account, quantitatively, for both the baby boom and bust.

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Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 95 (2005)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 183-207
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Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:95:y:2005:i:1:p:183-207

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  1. Gary S. Becker & Robert J. Barro, 1988. "A Reformulation of the Economic Theory of Fertility," NBER Working Papers 1793, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Benhabib, Jess & Rogerson, Richard & Wright, Randall, 1991. "Homework in Macroeconomics: Household Production and Aggregate Fluctuations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(6), pages 1166-87, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. David Andolfatto & Glenn MacDonald, 1998. "Technology Diffusion and Aggregate Dynamics," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(2), pages 338-370, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Oded Galor & David N. Weil, 2000. "Population, Technology, and Growth: From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and Beyond," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 806-828, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. David Andolfatto & Glenn M. MacDonald, 1998. "Technology Diffusion and Aggregate Dynamics," Working Papers 98005, University of Waterloo, Department of Economics, revised Jan 1998. [Downloadable!]
  6. Matthias Doepke, 2004. "Accounting for Fertility Decline During the Transition to Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 347-383, 09. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Galor, Oded & Weil, David N, 1996. "The Gender Gap, Fertility, and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(3), pages 374-87, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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