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Investing in mutual funds when returns are predictable

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Cited by:

  1. Davide Benedetti & Enrico Biffis & Fotis Chatzimichalakis & Luciano Lilloy Fedele & Ian Simm, 2021. "Climate change investment risk: optimal portfolio construction ahead of the transition to a lower-carbon economy," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 299(1), pages 847-871, April.
  2. Avramov, Doron & Chordia, Tarun, 2006. "Predicting stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 387-415, November.
  3. Anwen Yin, 2022. "Does the kitchen‐sink model work forecasting the equity premium?," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 223-247, March.
  4. Ľuboš Pástor & Robert F. Stambaugh & Lucian A. Taylor, 2017. "Do Funds Make More When They Trade More?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(4), pages 1483-1528, August.
  5. Lee, Jaeram & Jeon, Hyunglae & Kang, Jangkoo & Lee, Changjun, 2020. "Do actively managed mutual funds exploit stock market mispricing?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
  6. Wang, Xiaoxiao & Zhang, Xueyong, 2024. "Bank affiliation and timing ability of mutual funds: Evidence from China," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
  7. Wu, Jyh-Lin & Wang, Yi-Chiuan, 2013. "Fundamentals, forecast combinations and nominal exchange-rate predictability," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 129-145.
  8. Kim, Sangbae & In, Francis & Ji, Philip Inyeob & Park, Raphael Jonghyeon, 2014. "False discoveries in the performance of Australian managed funds," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 244-256.
  9. Doron Avramov & Si Cheng & Lior Metzker & Stefan Voigt, 2023. "Integrating Factor Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(3), pages 1593-1646, June.
  10. Hunter, David & Kandel, Eugene & Kandel, Shmuel & Wermers, Russ, 2014. "Mutual fund performance evaluation with active peer benchmarks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(1), pages 1-29.
  11. Travis Sapp, 2011. "The 52-week high, momentum, and predicting mutual fund returns," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 149-179, August.
  12. Banegas, Ayelen & Gillen, Ben & Timmermann, Allan & Wermers, Russ, 2009. "The performance of European equity mutual funds," CFR Working Papers 09-03, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
  13. Fisher, Mark & Jensen, Mark J., 2022. "Bayesian nonparametric learning of how skill is distributed across the mutual fund industry," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 230(1), pages 131-153.
  14. Jeffrey Hobbs & Vivek Singh, 2015. "A comparison of buy‐side and sell‐side analysts," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 24(1), pages 42-51, January.
  15. Ferson, Wayne E., 2013. "Investment Performance: A Review and Synthesis," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 969-1010, Elsevier.
  16. Wermers, Russ, 2006. "Performance evaluation with portfolio holdings information," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 207-230, August.
  17. Smith, Simon C., 2021. "International stock return predictability," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
  18. Laurent Barras & Olivier Scaillet & Russ Wermers, 2010. "False Discoveries in Mutual Fund Performance: Measuring Luck in Estimated Alphas," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(1), pages 179-216, February.
  19. Marcin Kacperczyk & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Laura Veldkamp, 2009. "Rational Attention Allocation Over the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 15450, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Petr Parshakov, 2014. "Russian Mutual Funds: Skill vs. Luck," HSE Working papers WP BRP 40/FE/2014, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
  21. Victor DeMiguel & Javier Gil-Bazo & Francisco J. Nogales & André A. P. Santos, 2021. "Can Machine Learning Help to Select Portfolios of Mutual Funds?," Working Papers 1245, Barcelona School of Economics.
  22. Qiang Bu, 2018. "Long-term negative fund alpha: Is it caused by bad skill or bad luck?," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 32(1), pages 1-16, February.
  23. Ľuboš Pástor & Robert F. Stambaugh, 2012. "On the Size of the Active Management Industry," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(4), pages 740-781.
  24. Shanken, Jay & Tamayo, Ane, 2012. "Payout yield, risk, and mispricing: A Bayesian analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 131-152.
  25. Christiansen, Charlotte & Grønborg, Niels S. & Nielsen, Ole L., 2020. "Mutual fund selection for realistically short samples," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 218-240.
  26. Zia-ur-Rehman Rao & Tanveer Ahsan & Muhammad Zubair Tauni & Muhammad Umar, 2018. "Performance and Persistence in Performance of Actively Managed Chinese Equity Funds," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 16(3), pages 727-747, September.
  27. Matthew Spiegel & Harry Mamaysky & Hong Zhang, 2005. "Improved Forecasting of Mutual Fund Alphas and Betas," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2361, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Mar 2006.
  28. Bianchi, Daniele & Babiak, Mykola, 2022. "On the performance of cryptocurrency funds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
  29. Leland E. Farmer & Lawrence Schmidt & Allan Timmermann, 2023. "Pockets of Predictability," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(3), pages 1279-1341, June.
  30. Omneya Abdelsalam & Meryem Duygun & Juan Carlos Matallín-Sáez & Emili Tortosa-Ausina, 2014. "Is Ethical Money Sensitive to Past Returns? The Case of Portfolio Constraints and Persistence of Islamic and Socially Responsible Funds," Working Papers 2014/19, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
  31. Jon A. Fulkerson, 2013. "Is Timing Everything? The Value of Mutual Fund Manager Trades," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 42(2), pages 243-261, June.
  32. Pedraza, Alvaro & Pulga, Fredy & Vasquez, Jose, 2020. "Costly index investing in foreign markets," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
  33. Lubos Pastor & Pietro Veronesi, 2009. "Learning in Financial Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 361-381, November.
  34. Scott Bennett & David R. Gallagher & Graham Harman & Geoffrey J. Warren & Yuki Xi, 2018. "A new perspective on performance persistence: evidence using portfolio holdings," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 58(1), pages 91-125, March.
  35. Chune Young Chung & Doojin Ryu & Kainan Wang & Blerina Bela Zykaj, 2018. "Optionable Stocks and Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(3), pages 390-412, March.
  36. Banegas, Ayelen & Gillen, Ben & Timmermann, Allan & Wermers, Russ, 2013. "The cross section of conditional mutual fund performance in European stock markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(3), pages 699-726.
  37. Qiang Bu, 2020. "Investor Sentiment and Mutual Fund Alpha," Journal of Behavioral Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 57-65, January.
  38. Yee Loon, 2011. "Model uncertainty, performance persistence and flows," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 153-205, February.
  39. Rossi, Alberto G. & Blake, David & Timmermann, Allan & Tonks, Ian & Wermers, Russ, 2015. "Network centrality and pension fund performance," CFR Working Papers 15-16, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
  40. Glode, Vincent, 2011. "Why mutual funds "underperform"," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(3), pages 546-559, March.
  41. Ľuboš Pástor & Robert F. Stambaugh, 2009. "Predictive Systems: Living with Imperfect Predictors," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(4), pages 1583-1628, August.
  42. Caporin, Massimiliano & Lisi, Francesco, 2013. "A Conditional Single Index model with Local Covariates for detecting and evaluating active portfolio management," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 236-249.
  43. Levy, Haim & Levy, Moshe, 2021. "The cost of diversification over time, and a simple way to improve target-date funds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
  44. Yin, Anwen, 2020. "Equity premium prediction and optimal portfolio decision with Bagging," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
  45. DeMiguel, Victor & Gil-Bazo, Javier & Nogales, Francisco J. & Santos, André A.P., 2023. "Machine learning and fund characteristics help to select mutual funds with positive alpha," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(3).
  46. Doron Avramov & Si Cheng & Allaudeen Hameed, 2020. "Mutual Funds and Mispriced Stocks," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(6), pages 2372-2395, June.
  47. Jiang, George J. & Yao, Tong & Yu, Tong, 2007. "Do mutual funds time the market? Evidence from portfolio holdings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(3), pages 724-758, December.
  48. Joenväärä, Juha & Kauppila, Mikko & Kahra, Hannu, 2021. "Hedge fund portfolio selection with fund characteristics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
  49. Cuthbertson, Keith & Nitzsche, Dirk & O'Sullivan, Niall, 2016. "A review of behavioural and management effects in mutual fund performance," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 162-176.
  50. Kadan, Ohad & Madureira, Leonardo & Wang, Rong & Zach, Tzachi, 2012. "Analysts' industry expertise," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 95-120.
  51. Manuel Ammann & Michael Steiner, 2009. "The Performance of Actively and Passively Managed Swiss Equity Funds," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 145(I), pages 1-36, March.
  52. Omneya Abdelsalam & Meryem Duygun & Juan Carlos Matallín-Sáez & Emili Tortosa-Ausina, 2017. "Is Ethical Money Sensitive to Past Returns? The Case of Portfolio Constraints and Persistence in Islamic Funds," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 51(3), pages 363-384, June.
  53. Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan G. Timmermann & Rossen I. Valkanov, 2008. "Return Predictability under Equilibrium Constraints on the Equity Premium," Working Papers 37, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School.
  54. Moraes, Fernando & Cavalcante-Filho, Elias & De-Losso, Rodrigo, 2021. "Unskilled fund managers: Replicating active fund performance with few ETFs," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
  55. Doron Avramov & Guofu Zhou, 2010. "Bayesian Portfolio Analysis," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 2(1), pages 25-47, December.
  56. Anwen Yin, 2019. "Equity Premium Prediction with Structural Breaks: A Two-Stage Forecast Combination Approach," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 11(12), pages 1-50, December.
  57. Chengbo Fu, 2018. "Alpha Beta Risk and Stock Returns—A Decomposition Analysis of Idiosyncratic Volatility with Conditional Models," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-11, October.
  58. Harry Mamaysky & Matthew Spiegel & Hong Zhang, 2007. "Improved Forecasting of Mutual Fund Alphas and Betas," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 11(3), pages 359-400.
  59. Korteweg, Arthur & Sorensen, Morten, 2017. "Skill and luck in private equity performance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(3), pages 535-562.
  60. Galatis Nikolaos & Nitsi Ekaterini & Theloura Chrysoula, 2020. "Investigating Financial Performance of Low-and High-Rated ETFs During the QE-Tapering," HOLISTICA – Journal of Business and Public Administration, Sciendo, vol. 11(1), pages 107-123, April.
  61. Massa, Massimo & Cheng, Si & Zhang, Hong, 2017. "The Unexpected Activeness of Passive Investors: A World-Wide Analysis of ETFs," CEPR Discussion Papers 11988, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  62. Kelsey D. Wei & Russ Wermers & Tong Yao, 2015. "Uncommon Value: The Characteristics and Investment Performance of Contrarian Funds," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(10), pages 2394-2414, October.
  63. Pettenuzzo, Davide & Timmermann, Allan & Valkanov, Rossen, 2014. "Forecasting stock returns under economic constraints," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(3), pages 517-553.
  64. Daniel R. Cavagnaro & Berk A. Sensoy & Yingdi Wang & Michael S. Weisbach, 2016. "Measuring Institutional Investors’ Skill from Their Investments in Private Equity," NBER Working Papers 22547, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  65. Yamani, Ehab, 2023. "The informational role of fund flow in the profitable predictability of mutual funds," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
  66. Grønborg, Niels S. & Lunde, Asger & Timmermann, Allan & Wermers, Russ, 2021. "Picking funds with confidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(1), pages 1-28.
  67. Gillen, Benjamin J., 2014. "An empirical Bayesian approach to stein-optimal covariance matrix estimation," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 402-420.
  68. Jeffrey Hobbs & Vivek Singh & Madhumita Chakraborty, 2021. "Institutional underperformance: Should managers listen to the sell-side before trading?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 389-410, July.
  69. Hobbs, Jeffrey & Singh, Vivek, 2015. "A comparison of buy-side and sell-side analysts," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 42-51.
  70. Victoria Sevcenko & Sendil Ethiraj, 2018. "How Do Firms Appropriate Value from Employees with Transferable Skills? A Study of the Appropriation Puzzle in Actively Managed Mutual Funds," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(5), pages 775-795, October.
  71. Nucera, Federico & Valente, Giorgio, 2013. "Carry trades and the performance of currency hedge funds," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 407-425.
  72. Campbell R. Harvey & Yan Liu, 2016. "Rethinking Performance Evaluation," NBER Working Papers 22134, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  73. Roberto Stein, 2022. "‘Smart’ copycat mutual funds: on the performance of partial imitation strategies," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-31, December.
  74. Yin, Anwen, 2019. "Out-of-sample equity premium prediction in the presence of structural breaks," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
  75. Bruce Vanstone & Tobias Hahn & Dean Earea, 2021. "Industry momentum: an exchange‐traded funds approach," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 61(3), pages 4007-4024, September.
  76. Kingsley Fong & David R. Gallagher & Adrian D. Lee, 2008. "Benchmarking benchmarks: measuring characteristic selectivity using portfolio holdings data," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 48(5), pages 761-781, December.
  77. Avramov, Doron & Kosowski, Robert & Naik, Narayan Y. & Teo, Melvyn, 2011. "Hedge funds, managerial skill, and macroeconomic variables," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(3), pages 672-692, March.
  78. Urbi Garay & Enrique Ter Horst & German Molina & Abel Rodriguez, 2016. "Bayesian Nonparametric Measurement of Factor Betas and Clustering with Application to Hedge Fund Returns," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 4(1), pages 1-23, March.
  79. Jennifer Huang & Kelsey D. Wei & Hong Yan, 2022. "Investor learning and mutual fund flows," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 51(3), pages 739-765, September.
  80. Jun Tu, 2010. "Is Regime Switching in Stock Returns Important in Portfolio Decisions?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 56(7), pages 1198-1215, July.
  81. Rytchkov, Oleg, 2010. "Expected returns on value, growth, and HML," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 552-565, September.
  82. Brown, Keith C. & Garlappi, Lorenzo & Tiu, Cristian, 2010. "Asset allocation and portfolio performance: Evidence from university endowment funds," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 268-294, May.
  83. Scott Cederburg & Travis L Johnson & Michael S O’Doherty, 2023. "On the Economic Significance of Stock Return Predictability," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 27(2), pages 619-657.
  84. André de Souza & Anthony W. Lynch, 2012. "Does Mutual Fund Performance Vary over the Business Cycle?," NBER Working Papers 18137, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  85. Hansen, Erwin, 2022. "Economic evaluation of asset pricing models under predictability," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 50-66.
  86. Monika Mościbrodzka, 2021. "Alternative investment funds – the evaluation of managers’ abilities in the light of the amendments to the Act on Investment Fund," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 52(6), pages 517-544.
  87. Timothy B. Riley, 2021. "Portfolios of actively managed mutual funds," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 205-230, May.
  88. Fletcher, Jonathan & Basu, Devraj, 2016. "An examination of the benefits of dynamic trading strategies in U.K. closed-end funds," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 109-118.
  89. Benoît Dewaele, 2013. "Portfolio Optimization for Hedge Funds through Time-Varying Coefficients," Working Papers CEB 13-032, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  90. Goh, Jeremy C. & Jiang, Fuwei & Tu, Jun & Wang, Yuchen, 2013. "Can US economic variables predict the Chinese stock market?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 69-87.
  91. Y. Chung & Thomas Kim, 2015. "The win–loss ratio as an ability signal of mutual fund managers: a measure that is less influenced by luck," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 29(4), pages 301-335, November.
  92. Ekholm, Anders G., 2012. "Portfolio returns and manager activity: How to decompose tracking error into security selection and market timing," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 349-358.
  93. Vidal-García, Javier, 2013. "The persistence of European mutual fund performance," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 45-67.
  94. Ľuboš Pástor & Robert F. Stambaugh, 2012. "On the Size of the Active Management Industry," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(4), pages 740-781.
  95. Kosowski, Robert & Naik, Narayan Y. & Teo, Melvyn, 2007. "Do hedge funds deliver alpha? A Bayesian and bootstrap analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 229-264, April.
  96. Jiang, George J. & Zaynutdinova, Gulnara R. & Zhang, Huacheng, 2021. "Stock-selection timing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
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