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Survey measures of expected inflation : revisiting the issues of predictive content and rationality

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  1. Billio, Monica & Casarin, Roberto & Ravazzolo, Francesco & van Dijk, Herman K., 2013. "Time-varying combinations of predictive densities using nonlinear filtering," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 213-232.
  2. Cornand, Camille & Hubert, Paul, 2020. "On the external validity of experimental inflation forecasts: A comparison with five categories of field expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
  3. Berge, Travis J., 2018. "Understanding survey-based inflation expectations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 788-801.
  4. Martinsen, Kjetil & Ravazzolo, Francesco & Wulfsberg, Fredrik, 2014. "Forecasting macroeconomic variables using disaggregate survey data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 65-77.
  5. Paolo Gelain & Kevin J. Lansing & Caterina Mendicino, 2013. "House Prices, Credit Growth, and Excess Volatility: Implications for Monetary and Macroprudential Policy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(2), pages 219-276, June.
  6. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2010. "Combining predictive densities using Bayesian filtering with applications to US economics data," Working Paper 2010/29, Norges Bank.
  7. Sarah M. Lein & Thomas Maag, 2011. "The Formation Of Inflation Perceptions: Some Empirical Facts For European Countries," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 58(2), pages 155-188, May.
  8. Richard Curtin, 2019. "Consumer expectations: a new paradigm," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 54(4), pages 199-210, October.
  9. Nibbering, Didier & Paap, Richard & van der Wel, Michel, 2018. "What do professional forecasters actually predict?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 288-311.
  10. Pablo Pincheira Brown & Nicolás Hardy, 2024. "The mean squared prediction error paradox," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(6), pages 2298-2321, September.
  11. Gelain, Paolo & Lansing, Kevin J., 2014. "House prices, expectations, and time-varying fundamentals," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 3-25.
  12. Grishchenko, Olesya V. & Vanden, Joel M. & Zhang, Jianing, 2016. "The informational content of the embedded deflation option in TIPS," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 1-26.
  13. Jonsson, Thomas & Österholm, Pär, 2011. "The forecasting properties of survey-based wage-growth expectations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 113(3), pages 276-281.
  14. Martin Nordström, 2020. "A forecast evaluation of the Riksbank's policy‐rate projections," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 49(3), September.
  15. Michael F. Bryan & Stefan Palmqvist, 2005. "Testing near-rationality using detailed survey data," Working Papers (Old Series) 0502, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  16. Fabio Canova & Luca Gambetti, 2010. "Do Expectations Matter? The Great Moderation Revisited," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 183-205, July.
  17. Ang, Andrew & Bekaert, Geert & Wei, Min, 2007. "Do macro variables, asset markets, or surveys forecast inflation better?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1163-1212, May.
  18. Stefan Palmqvist & Michael F. Bryan, 2005. "Testing Near-Rationality Using Detail Survey Data," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 371, Society for Computational Economics.
  19. Gene Birz & Sandip Dutta & Han Yu, 2022. "Economic forecasts, anchoring bias, and stock returns," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 51(1), pages 169-191, March.
  20. Bryan, Michael F. & Palmqvist, Stefan, 2005. "Testing Near-Rationality using Detailed Survey Data," Working Paper Series 183, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  21. Gbaguidi, David, 2012. "La courbe de Phillips : temps d’arbitrage et/ou arbitrage de temps," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 88(1), pages 87-119, mars.
  22. Andolfatto, David & Hendry, Scott & Moran, Kevin, 2008. "Are inflation expectations rational?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 406-422, March.
  23. Ghysels, Eric & Wright, Jonathan H., 2009. "Forecasting Professional Forecasters," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 504-516.
  24. Pamela Jervis, 2007. "Inflation Compensation and Its Components in Chile," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 10(2), pages 27-56, August.
  25. Jon Faust & Jonathan H. Wright, 2011. "Efficient Prediction of Excess Returns," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(2), pages 647-659, May.
  26. Leite, André Luís & Filho, Romeu Braz Pereira Gomes & Vicente, José Valentim Machado, 2010. "Forecasting the yield curve: A statistical model with market survey data," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 108-112, March.
  27. El-Shagi, Makram, 2011. "Inflation expectations: Does the market beat econometric forecasts?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 298-319.
  28. Fuhrer, Jeff, 2017. "Expectations as a source of macroeconomic persistence: Evidence from survey expectations in a dynamic macro model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 22-35.
  29. Benjamin Beckers & Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Dirk Ulbricht, 2017. "Reading between the Lines: Using Media to Improve German Inflation Forecasts," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1665, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  30. Xu, Yingying & Chang, Hsu-Ling & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona & Su, Chi-Wei, 2016. "Modeling heterogeneous inflation expectations: empirical evidence from demographic data?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 153-163.
  31. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2011. "Combining Predictive Densities using Nonlinear Filtering with Applications to US Economics Data," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-172/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  32. Simon Richards & Matthieu Verstraete, 2016. "Understanding Firms' Inflation Expectations Using the Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey," CESifo Working Paper Series 6090, CESifo.
  33. Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Michael F. Bryan & Simon M. Potter & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert Van der Klaauw, 2008. "Rethinking the measurement of household inflation expectations: preliminary findings," Staff Reports 359, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  34. Halina Kowalczyk & Tomasz Lyziak & Ewa Stanisławska, 2013. "A new approach to probabilistic surveys of professional forecasters and its application in the monetary policy context," NBP Working Papers 142, Narodowy Bank Polski.
  35. Simon Richards & Matthieu Verstraete, 2016. "Understanding Firms' Inflation Expectations Using the Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey," Staff Working Papers 16-7, Bank of Canada.
  36. Gelain, Paolo & Iskrev, Nikolay & J. Lansing, Kevin & Mendicino, Caterina, 2019. "Inflation dynamics and adaptive expectations in an estimated DSGE model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 258-277.
  37. Kim, Insu & Kim, Minsoo, 2009. "Irrational Bias in Inflation Forecasts," MPRA Paper 16447, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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