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The yield curve, recessions, and the credibility of the monetary regime: long-run evidence, 1875-1997

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
  2. Tobias Adrian & Arturo Estrella & Hyun Song Shin, 2019. "Risk‐taking channel of monetary policy," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 48(3), pages 725-738, September.
  3. Stefan Gerlach & Rebecca Stuart, 2024. "International co-movements of inflation, 1851–1913," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 76(4), pages 997-1013.
  4. Anna Florio, 2016. "The central bank as shaper and observer of events: The case of the yield spread," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 49(1), pages 320-346, February.
  5. Roberto Santis, 2015. "Quantity theory is alive: the role of international portfolio shifts," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 1401-1430, December.
  6. Kuosmanen, Petri & Vataja, Juuso, 2014. "Forecasting GDP growth with financial market data in Finland: Revisiting stylized facts in a small open economy during the financial crisis," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 90-97.
  7. B. De Backer & M. Deroose & Ch. Van Nieuwenhuyze, 2019. "Is a recession imminent? The signal of the yield curve," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue i, pages 69-93, June.
  8. Joseph G. Haubrich & George Pennacchi & Peter H. Ritchken, 2008. "Estimating real and nominal term structures using Treasury yields, inflation, inflation forecasts, and inflation swap rates," Working Papers (Old Series) 0810, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  9. Kuosmanen, Petri & Nabulsi, Nasib & Vataja, Juuso, 2015. "Financial variables and economic activity in the Nordic countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 368-379.
  10. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier, 2012. "Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series: A reappraisal," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 167-180.
  11. Olivier Darné & Amélie Charles, 2011. "Large shocks in U.S. macroeconomic time series: 1860-1988," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 5(1), pages 79-100, January.
  12. Hännikäinen, Jari, 2017. "When does the yield curve contain predictive power? Evidence from a data-rich environment," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 1044-1064.
  13. Junttila, Juha & Vataja, Juuso, 2018. "Economic policy uncertainty effects for forecasting future real economic activity," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 569-583.
  14. Gebka, Bartosz & Wohar, Mark E., 2018. "The predictive power of the yield spread for future economic expansions: Evidence from a new approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 181-195.
  15. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose, 2017. "Asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes: A survey," CAMA Working Papers 2017-76, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  16. Kang Kyu Ho & Kim Chang-Jin & Morley James, 2009. "Changes in U.S. Inflation Persistence," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(4), pages 1-23, September.
  17. Benati, Luca & Goodhart, Charles, 2008. "Investigating time-variation in the marginal predictive power of the yield spread," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1236-1272, April.
  18. Dias, Daniel A. & Marques, Carlos Robalo, 2010. "Using mean reversion as a measure of persistence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 262-273, January.
  19. De Santis, Roberto A., 2012. "Quantity theory is alive: the role of international portfolio shifts," Working Paper Series 1435, European Central Bank.
  20. Bordo, Michael D. & Haubrich, Joseph G., 2008. "Forecasting with the yield curve; level, slope, and output 1875-1997," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 48-50, April.
  21. Markus Baltzer & Gerhard Kling, 2005. "Predictability of future economic growth and the credibility of different monetary regimes in Germany, 1870 - 2003," Working Papers 5023, Economic History Society.
  22. Gerlach, Stefan & Stuart, Rebecca, 2018. "The Slope of the Term Structure and Recessions: The Pre-Fed Evidence, 1857-1913," CEPR Discussion Papers 13013, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  23. Leo Krippner, 2008. "A Macroeconomic Foundation for the Nelson and Siegel Class of Yield Curve Models," Research Paper Series 226, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  24. Dalu Zhang & Peter Moffatt, 2012. "The yield curve as a leading indicator in economic forecasting in the U.K," University of East Anglia Applied and Financial Economics Working Paper Series 035, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
  25. Huseyin Kaya, 2013. "On the Predictive Power of Yield Spread for Future Growth and Recession: The Turkish Case," Working Papers 010, Bahcesehir University, Betam, revised Mar 2013.
  26. Seok-Kyun Hur, 2005. "Money Growth and Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 11102, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  27. Petri Kuosmanen & Juuso Vataja, 2014. "Forecasting GDP growth with financial market data in Finland: Revisiting stylized facts in a small open economy during the financial crisis," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(2), pages 90-97, April.
  28. Evgenidis, Anastasios & Papadamou, Stephanos & Siriopoulos, Costas, 2020. "The yield spread's ability to forecast economic activity: What have we learned after 30 years of studies?," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 221-232.
  29. Azhar Iqbal & Sam Bullard & John Silvia, 2019. "Are yield-curve/monetary cycles’ approaches enough to predict recessions?," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 54(1), pages 61-68, January.
  30. Vides, José Carlos & Golpe, Antonio A. & Iglesias, Jesús, 2021. "The impact of the term spread in US monetary policy from 1870 to 2013," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 230-251.
  31. Chen, Guojin & Liu, Yanzhen & Zhang, Yu, 2021. "Systemic risk measures and distribution forecasting of macroeconomic shocks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 178-196.
  32. Joseph G. Haubrich, 2021. "Does the Yield Curve Predict Output?," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 13(1), pages 341-362, November.
  33. David C. Wheelock & Mark E. Wohar, 2009. "Can the term spread predict output growth and recessions? a survey of the literature," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 91(Sep), pages 419-440.
  34. Petri Kuosmanen & Juuso Vataja, 2017. "The return of financial variables in forecasting GDP growth in the G-7," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 259-277, August.
  35. Kuosmanen, Petri & Rahko, Jaana & Vataja, Juuso, 2019. "Predictive ability of financial variables in changing economic circumstances," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 37-47.
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