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The scapegoat theory of exchange rates: the first tests

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  1. Exchange rates and scapegoats
    by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2012-07-20 20:02:00

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Cited by:

  1. Rossi, José Luiz Júnior, 2013. "Liquidity and Exchange Rates," Insper Working Papers wpe_325, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
  2. Foroni, Claudia & Guérin, Pierre & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2018. "Using low frequency information for predicting high frequency variables," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 774-787.
  3. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2017. "Exchange rate expectations and economic policy uncertainty," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 148-162.
  4. Rossi Junior, Jose Luiz & Felicio, Wilson Rafael de Oliveira, 2014. "Common Factors and the Exchange Rate: Results From the Brazilian Case," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 68(1), April.
  5. Joscha Beckmann & Rainer Schüssler, 2014. "Forecasting Exchange Rates under Model and Parameter Uncertainty," CQE Working Papers 3214, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
  6. Filippou, Ilias & Taylor, Mark P., 2017. "Common Macro Factors and Currency Premia," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(4), pages 1731-1763, August.
  7. Amat, Christophe & Michalski, Tomasz & Stoltz, Gilles, 2018. "Fundamentals and exchange rate forecastability with simple machine learning methods," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 1-24.
  8. Agnieszka P. Markiewicz & Ralph C. Verhoeks & Willem F. C. Verschoor & Remco C. J. Zwinkels, 2023. "Inattentive Search for Currency Fundamentals," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(4), pages 907-952, December.
  9. Brown, Martin & De Haas, Ralph & Sokolov, Vladimir, 2013. "Regional Inflation and Financial Dollarization," Working Papers on Finance 1327, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
  10. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert L., 2020. "Fundamental determinants of exchange rate expectations," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224617, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  11. Lu, Man & Wang, Wei & Chen, Fengwen & Li, Hongmei, 2024. "Dynamic impacts of multidimensional uncertainty on the renminbi exchange rate: Insights from time-varying analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
  12. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2017. "The impact of uncertainty on professional exchange rate forecasts," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PB), pages 296-316.
  13. Eric Hillebrand & Jakob Guldbæk Mikkelsen & Lars Spreng & Giovanni Urga, 2023. "Exchange rates and macroeconomic fundamentals: Evidence of instabilities from time‐varying factor loadings," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(6), pages 857-877, September.
  14. Kim, Young Min & Lee, Seojin, 2020. "Exchange rate predictability: A variable selection perspective," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 117-134.
  15. Felício, Wilson Rafael de Oliveira & Rossi, José Luiz Júnior, 2013. "Common factors and the exchange rate: results from the Brazilian case," Insper Working Papers wpe_318, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
  16. Beckmann, Joscha & Schüssler, Rainer, 2016. "Forecasting exchange rates under parameter and model uncertainty," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 267-288.
  17. Joseph P. Byrne & Dimitris Korobilis & Pinho J. Ribeiro, 2018. "On The Sources Of Uncertainty In Exchange Rate Predictability," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 59(1), pages 329-357, February.
  18. Kouwenberg, Roy & Markiewicz, Agnieszka & Verhoeks, Ralph & Zwinkels, Remco C. J., 2017. "Model Uncertainty and Exchange Rate Forecasting," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(1), pages 341-363, February.
  19. Bacchetta, Philippe & van Wincoop, Eric, 2013. "On the unstable relationship between exchange rates and macroeconomic fundamentals," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 18-26.
  20. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Wang, Wenhao, 2022. "Uncovered interest rate parity redux: Non-uniform effects," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 133-151.
  21. F. Pancotto & G. Pignataro & D. Raggi, 2014. "Higher order beliefs and the dynamics of exchange rates," Working Papers wp957, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
  22. Joscha Beckmann & Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis & Rainer Alexander Schüssler, 2020. "Exchange rate predictability and dynamic Bayesian learning," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(4), pages 410-421, June.
  23. Ioannis Litsios & Keith Pilbeam, 2017. "The long-run determination of the real exchange rate. Evidence from an intertemporal modelling framework using the dollar-pound exchange rate," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(5), pages 1011-1028, November.
  24. Gaglianone, Wagner Piazza & Marins, Jaqueline Terra Moura, 2017. "Evaluation of exchange rate point and density forecasts: An application to Brazil," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 707-728.
  25. Granziera, Eleonora & Sihvonen, Markus, 2024. "Bonds, currencies and expectational errors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
  26. Victor Shevchuk & Roman Kopych, 2021. "Exchange Rate Volatility, Currency Misalignment, and Risk of Recession in the Central and Eastern European Countries," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-19, May.
  27. de Haas, R. & Brown, M. & Sokolov, V., 2015. "Regional Inflation, Financial Integration and Dollarization (This is a revision of CentER DP 2013-073)," Discussion Paper 2015-012, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  28. Felício, Wilson Rafael de Oliveira & Rossi, José Luiz J., 2012. "The Usefulness of factor models in forecasting the exchange rate: results from the Brazilian case," Insper Working Papers wpe_273, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
  29. Shakill Hassan & Merrisa Paul & Siobhan Redford, 2015. "Vulnerability to Normalization of Global Financing Conditions An Operational Approach," Working Papers 6941, South African Reserve Bank.
  30. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2017. "Exchange rate expectations since the financial crisis: Performance evaluation and the role of monetary policy and safe haven," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 283-300.
  31. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
  32. Abid, Abir, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty and exchange rates in emerging markets: Short and long runs evidence," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
  33. Jair N. Ojeda-Joya, 2014. "A Consumption-Based Approach to Exchange Rate Predictability," Borradores de Economia 857, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  34. Hai Long Vo & Duc Hong Vo, 2023. "The purchasing power parity and exchange‐rate economics half a century on," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 446-479, April.
  35. Francesca Pancotto & Giuseppe Pignataro & Davide Raggi, 2015. "Social Learning and Higher Order Beliefs: A Structural Model of Exchange Rates Dynamics," LEM Papers Series 2015/24, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
  36. Beckmann, Joscha & Reitz, Stefan, 2020. "Information rigidities and exchange rate expectations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
  37. Ribeiro, Pinho J., 2017. "Selecting exchange rate fundamentals by bootstrap," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 894-914.
  38. Wagner Piazza Gaglianone & Jaqueline Terra Moura Marins, 2014. "Risk Assessment of the Brazilian FX Rate," Working Papers Series 344, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  39. Pilbeam, K. & Litsios, I., 2018. "Long-run determination of the nominal exchange rate in the presence of national debts: Evidence from the yen-dollar exchange rate," Working Papers 18/01, Department of Economics, City University London.
  40. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose, 2017. "Asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes: A survey," CAMA Working Papers 2017-76, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  41. Kwas, Marek & Beckmann, Joscha & Rubaszek, Michał, 2024. "Are consensus FX forecasts valuable for investors?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 268-284.
  42. Dr. Fabian Fink & Dr. Lukas Frei & Dr. Oliver Gloede, 2020. "Short-term determinants of bilateral exchange rates: A decomposition model for the Swiss franc," Working Papers 2020-21, Swiss National Bank.
  43. Ioannis Litsios & Keith Pilbeam, 2019. "The Role Of National Debts In The Determination Of The Yen‐Dollar Exchange Rate," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 57(2), pages 1182-1195, April.
  44. Mordechai E. Schwarz, 2023. "A master of two servants: lessons from the israeli experience about the effect of separation of powers on public accountability and social welfare," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 59-87, March.
  45. de Haas, R. & Brown, M. & Sokolov, V., 2015. "Regional Inflation, Financial Integration and Dollarization," Other publications TiSEM ef569549-635c-490c-b44c-2, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  46. repec:fgv:epgrbe:v:68:n:1:a:3 is not listed on IDEAS
  47. Bacchetta, Philippe & Chikhani, Pauline, 2020. "On the Weakness of the Swedish Krona," CEPR Discussion Papers 15468, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  48. Gulati, Vishal, 2023. "Bibliometric review of research on exchange rate predictability and fundamentals," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PA).
  49. Vito Cormun & Kim Ristolainen, 2024. "Exchange Rate Narratives," Discussion Papers 167, Aboa Centre for Economics.
  50. Haskamp, Ulrich, 2017. "Forecasting exchange rates: The time-varying relationship between exchange rates and Taylor rule fundamentals," Ruhr Economic Papers 704, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
  51. David Alan Peel & Pantelis Promponas, 2016. "Forecasting the nominal exchange rate movements in a changing world. The case of the U.S. and the U.K," Working Papers 144439514, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
  52. Eric Hillebrand & Jakob Mikkelsen & Lars Spreng & Giovanni Urga, 2020. "Exchange Rates and Macroeconomic Fundamentals: Evidence of Instabilities from Time-Varying Factor Loadings," CREATES Research Papers 2020-19, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  53. Pignataro, Giuseppe & Raggi, Davide & Pancotto, Francesca, 2024. "On the role of fundamentals, private signals, and beauty contests to predict exchange rates," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 687-705.
  54. Rossi, José Luiz Júnior, 2014. "The Usefulness of Financial Variables in Predicting Exchange Rate Movements," Insper Working Papers wpe_332, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
  55. Mordechai E. Schwarz, 2020. "A Master of Two Servants: The Effect of Separation of Powers on Public Accountability and Social Welfare," Proceedings of International Academic Conferences 10612466, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
  56. Fink, Fabian & Frei, Lukas & Gloede, Oliver, 2022. "Global risk sentiment and the Swiss franc: A time-varying daily factor decomposition model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
  57. Lorenzo Pozzi & Barbara Sadaba, 2017. "Detecting Scapegoat Effects in the Relationship Between Exchange Rates and Macroeconomic Fundamentals," Staff Working Papers 17-22, Bank of Canada.
  58. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2011. "Modeling Exchange Rates with Incomplete Information," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 11.03, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie.
  59. Enzo Cassino & David Oxley, 2013. "How Does the Exchange Rate Affect the Real Economy? A Literature Survey," Treasury Working Paper Series 13/26, New Zealand Treasury.
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