Gregor von Schweinitz
Personal Details
First Name: | Gregor |
Middle Name: | |
Last Name: | von Schweinitz |
Suffix: | |
RePEc Short-ID: | pvo153 |
[This author has chosen not to make the email address public] | |
http://www.iwh-halle.de/en/about-the-iwh/people/detail/gregor-von-schweinitz/ | |
Terminal Degree: | 2013 Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH) (from RePEc Genealogy) |
Affiliation
Közgazdaságtan Intézet
Budapesti Corvinus Egyetem
Budapest, Hungaryhttps://www.uni-corvinus.hu/fooldal/egyetemunkrol/intezetek/kozgazdasagtan-intezet/
RePEc:edi:bkeeehu (more details at EDIRC)
Research output
Jump to: Working papers ArticlesWorking papers
- Camehl, Annika & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2023. "What explains international interest rate co-movement?," IWH Discussion Papers 3/2023, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), revised 2023.
- von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2023. "The importance of credit demand for business cycle dynamics," IWH Discussion Papers 21/2023, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
- Staffa, Ruben Marek & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2023. "Fiscal policy under the eyes of wary bondholders," IWH Discussion Papers 26/2023, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
- Claudio, João C. & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2020. "On the international dissemination of technology news shocks," IWH Discussion Papers 25/2020, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
- Makram El-Shagi & Gregor von Schweinitz, 2019. "Fiscal Policy and Fiscal Fragility: Evidence from the OECD," CFDS Discussion Paper Series 2019/5, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China.
- El-Shagi, Makram & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2019.
"Fiscal policy and fiscal fragility: Empirical evidence from the OECD,"
IWH Discussion Papers
13/2019, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
- El-Shagi, Makram & Schweinitz, Gregor von, 2021. "Fiscal policy and fiscal fragility: Empirical evidence from the OECD," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
- Crespo-Cuaresma, Jesus & Schweinitz, Gregor von & Wendt, Katharina, 2018.
"On the empirics of reserve requirements and economic growth,"
IWH Discussion Papers
8/2018, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
- Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus & von Schweinitz, Gregor & Wendt, Katharina, 2019. "On the empirics of reserve requirements and economic growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 253-274.
- Buchholz, Manuel & von Schweinitz, Gregor & Tonzer, Lena, 2018. "Did the Swiss exchange rate shock shock the market?," IWH Discussion Papers 9/2018, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
- Beutel, Johannes & List, Sophia & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2018.
"An evaluation of early warning models for systemic banking crises: Does machine learning improve predictions?,"
Discussion Papers
48/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
- Beutel, Johannes & List, Sophia & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2019. "An evaluation of early warning models for systemic banking crises: Does machine learning improve predictions?," IWH Discussion Papers 2/2019, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
- El-Shagi, Makram & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2017. "Why they keep missing: An empirical investigation of rational inattention of rating agencies," IWH Discussion Papers 1/2017, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), revised 2017.
- Sarlin, Peter & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2017.
"Optimizing policymakers' loss functions in crisis prediction: before, within or after?,"
Working Paper Series
2025, European Central Bank.
- Sarlin, Peter & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2021. "Optimizing Policymakers’ Loss Functions In Crisis Prediction: Before, Within Or After?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(1), pages 100-123, January.
- Sarlin, Peter & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2015. "Optimizing Policymakers' Loss Functions in Crisis Prediction: Before, Within or After?," IWH Discussion Papers 6/2015, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
- El-Shagi, Makram & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2016.
"The joint dynamics of sovereign ratings and government bond yields,"
Discussion Papers
13/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.
- El-Shagi, Makram & Schweinitz, Gregor von, 2018. "The joint dynamics of sovereign ratings and government bond yields," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 198-218.
- von Schweinitz, Gregor & El-Shagi, Makram, 2016. "The Joint Dynamics of Sovereign Ratings and Government Bond Yields," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145894, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- El-Shagi, Makram & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2015. "The Joint Dynamics of Sovereign Ratings and Government Bond Yields," IWH Discussion Papers 4/2015, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
- Dany, Geraldine & Gropp, Reint E. & Littke, Helge & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2015. "Germany's Benefit from the Greek Crisis," IWH Online 7/2015, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
- von Schweinitz, Gregor & Sarlin, Peter, 2015. "Signaling Crises: How to Get Good Out-of-Sample Performance Out of the Early Warning System," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112964, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- El-Shagi, Makram & Lindner, Axel & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2014.
"Real Effective Exchange Rate Misalignment in the Euro Area: A Counterfactual Analysis,"
IWH Discussion Papers
6/2014, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
- Makram El-Shagi & Axel Lindner & Gregor von Schweinitz, 2016. "Real Effective Exchange Rate Misalignment in the Euro Area: A Counterfactual Analysis," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 37-66, February.
- von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2013. "Flight Patterns and Yields of European Government Bonds," IWH Discussion Papers 10/2013, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
- El-Shagi, Makram & Knedlik, Tobias & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2012.
"Predicting Financial Crises: The (Statistical) Significance of the Signals Approach,"
IWH Discussion Papers
3/2012, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
- El-Shagi, M. & Knedlik, T. & von Schweinitz, G., 2013. "Predicting financial crises: The (statistical) significance of the signals approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 76-103.
- El-Shagi, Makram & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2012.
"Qual VAR Revisited: Good Forecast, Bad Story,"
IWH Discussion Papers
12/2012, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
- Makram El-Shagi & Gregor Von Schweinitz, 2016. "Qual Var Revisited: Good Forecast, Bad Story," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 293-321, November.
- Makram El-Shagi & Gregor von Schweinitz, 2016. "Qual VAR revisited: Good forecast, bad story," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 19, pages 293-322, November.
- Knedlik, Tobias & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2011.
"Macroeconomic Imbalances as Indicators for Debt Crises in Europe,"
IWH Discussion Papers
12/2011, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
- Tobias Knedlik & Gregor Von Schweinitz, 2012. "Macroeconomic Imbalances as Indicators for Debt Crises in Europe," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(5), pages 726-745, September.
Articles
- Makram El‐Shagi & Gregor von Schweinitz, 2022. "Why they keep missing: An empirical investigation of sovereign bond ratings and their timing," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 69(2), pages 186-224, May.
- Sarlin, Peter & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2021.
"Optimizing Policymakers’ Loss Functions In Crisis Prediction: Before, Within Or After?,"
Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(1), pages 100-123, January.
- Sarlin, Peter & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2015. "Optimizing Policymakers' Loss Functions in Crisis Prediction: Before, Within or After?," IWH Discussion Papers 6/2015, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
- Sarlin, Peter & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2017. "Optimizing policymakers' loss functions in crisis prediction: before, within or after?," Working Paper Series 2025, European Central Bank.
- Gregor von Schweinitz & Lena Tonzer & Manuel Buchholz, 2021. "Monetary policy through exchange rate pegs: The removal of the Swiss franc‐Euro floor and stock price reactions," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 21(4), pages 1382-1406, December.
- El-Shagi, Makram & Schweinitz, Gregor von, 2021.
"Fiscal policy and fiscal fragility: Empirical evidence from the OECD,"
Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
- El-Shagi, Makram & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2019. "Fiscal policy and fiscal fragility: Empirical evidence from the OECD," IWH Discussion Papers 13/2019, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
- Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus & von Schweinitz, Gregor & Wendt, Katharina, 2019.
"On the empirics of reserve requirements and economic growth,"
Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 253-274.
- Crespo-Cuaresma, Jesus & Schweinitz, Gregor von & Wendt, Katharina, 2018. "On the empirics of reserve requirements and economic growth," IWH Discussion Papers 8/2018, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
- Beutel, Johannes & List, Sophia & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2019. "Does machine learning help us predict banking crises?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
- El-Shagi, Makram & Schweinitz, Gregor von, 2018.
"The joint dynamics of sovereign ratings and government bond yields,"
Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 198-218.
- von Schweinitz, Gregor & El-Shagi, Makram, 2016. "The Joint Dynamics of Sovereign Ratings and Government Bond Yields," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145894, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- El-Shagi, Makram & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2016. "The joint dynamics of sovereign ratings and government bond yields," Discussion Papers 13/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.
- El-Shagi, Makram & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2015. "The Joint Dynamics of Sovereign Ratings and Government Bond Yields," IWH Discussion Papers 4/2015, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
- Schultz, Birgit & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2017. "7. IWH/INFER-Workshop on Applied Economics and Economic Policy: "Challenges and Implications of Inflationary Dynamics"," Wirtschaft im Wandel, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), vol. 23(4), pages 83-83.
- Drygalla, Andrej & Littke, Helge & von Schweinitz, Gregor & Ćumurović, Aida & Dany, Geraldine & Kim, Chi Hyun & Müller, Juliane, 2017. "22. Spring Meeting of Young Economists in Halle (Saale) - ein Tagungsbericht," Wirtschaft im Wandel, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), vol. 23(2), pages 41-42.
- Makram El-Shagi & Gregor Schweinitz, 2016. "The Diablo 3 Economy: An Agent Based Approach," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 47(2), pages 193-217, February.
- Schultz, Birgit & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2016. "6th IWH/INFER-Workshop on Applied Economics and Economic Policy: "(Ending) Unconventional Monetary Policy"," Wirtschaft im Wandel, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), vol. 22(6), pages 133-133.
- Makram El-Shagi & Axel Lindner & Gregor von Schweinitz, 2016.
"Real Effective Exchange Rate Misalignment in the Euro Area: A Counterfactual Analysis,"
Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 37-66, February.
- El-Shagi, Makram & Lindner, Axel & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2014. "Real Effective Exchange Rate Misalignment in the Euro Area: A Counterfactual Analysis," IWH Discussion Papers 6/2014, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
- Makram El-Shagi & Gregor von Schweinitz, 2016.
"Qual VAR revisited: Good forecast, bad story,"
Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 19, pages 293-322, November.
- Makram El-Shagi & Gregor Von Schweinitz, 2016. "Qual Var Revisited: Good Forecast, Bad Story," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 293-321, November.
- El-Shagi, Makram & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2012. "Qual VAR Revisited: Good Forecast, Bad Story," IWH Discussion Papers 12/2012, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
- El-Shagi, Makram & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2015. "Negative Bonitätsbewertungen und Zinsen auf Staatsanleihen – Gibt es einen Teufelskreis?," Wirtschaft im Wandel, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), vol. 21(3), pages 44-47.
- El-Shagi, Makram & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2015. "Risk and return—Is there an unholy cycle of ratings and yields?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 49-51.
- El-Shagi, Makram & Lindner, Axel & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2014. "Geriet die preisliche Wettbewerbsfähigkeit von Euroraum-Ländern nach Gründung der Währungsunion aus dem Gleichgewicht?," Wirtschaft im Wandel, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), vol. 20(3), pages 46-49.
- Schultz, Birgit & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2014. "4. IWH/INFER-Workshop on Applied Economics and Economic Policy: “A New Fiscal Capacity for the EU?“," Wirtschaft im Wandel, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), vol. 20(2), pages 30-31.
- El-Shagi, M. & Knedlik, T. & von Schweinitz, G., 2013.
"Predicting financial crises: The (statistical) significance of the signals approach,"
Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 76-103.
- El-Shagi, Makram & Knedlik, Tobias & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2012. "Predicting Financial Crises: The (Statistical) Significance of the Signals Approach," IWH Discussion Papers 3/2012, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
- Tobias Knedlik & Gregor Von Schweinitz, 2012.
"Macroeconomic Imbalances as Indicators for Debt Crises in Europe,"
Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(5), pages 726-745, September.
- Knedlik, Tobias & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2011. "Macroeconomic Imbalances as Indicators for Debt Crises in Europe," IWH Discussion Papers 12/2011, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
- Knedlik, Tobias & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2011. "Zur Aussagekraft von Frühindikatoren für Staatsschuldkrisen in Europa," Wirtschaft im Wandel, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), vol. 17(10), pages 364-368.
Citations
Many of the citations below have been collected in an experimental project, CitEc, where a more detailed citation analysis can be found. These are citations from works listed in RePEc that could be analyzed mechanically. So far, only a minority of all works could be analyzed. See under "Corrections" how you can help improve the citation analysis.Blog mentions
As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:- Makram El-Shagi & Axel Lindner & Gregor von Schweinitz, 2016.
"Real Effective Exchange Rate Misalignment in the Euro Area: A Counterfactual Analysis,"
Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 37-66, February.
- El-Shagi, Makram & Lindner, Axel & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2014. "Real Effective Exchange Rate Misalignment in the Euro Area: A Counterfactual Analysis," IWH Discussion Papers 6/2014, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
Mentioned in:
- ExIT: reflections of a mainstreamer
by Alberto Bagnai in Goofynomics on 2017-03-16 22:37:00 - L'economia è la continuazione della guerra con altri mezzi (articolati)
by Alberto Bagnai in Goofynomics on 2017-09-06 12:44:00
- Author Profile
- L'economia è la continuazione della guerra con altri mezzi (articolati)
by Alberto Bagnai in Goofynomics on 2017-09-06 12:44:00
- L'economia è la continuazione della guerra con altri mezzi (articolati)
Working papers
- El-Shagi, Makram & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2019.
"Fiscal policy and fiscal fragility: Empirical evidence from the OECD,"
IWH Discussion Papers
13/2019, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
- El-Shagi, Makram & Schweinitz, Gregor von, 2021. "Fiscal policy and fiscal fragility: Empirical evidence from the OECD," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
Cited by:
- M. Ayhan Kose & Sergio Kurlat & Franziska Ohnsorge & Naotaka Sugawara, 2017.
"A cross-country database of fiscal space,"
CAMA Working Papers
2017-48, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Kose, M. Ayhan & Kurlat, Sergio & Ohnsorge, Franziska & Sugawara, Naotaka, 2022. "A cross-country database of fiscal space," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
- M. Ayhan Kose & Sergio Kurlat & Franziska Ohnsorge & Naotaka Sugawara, 2017. "A Cross-Country Database of Fiscal Space," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1713, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
- Kose, M. Ayhan & Kurlat , Sergio & Ohnsorge, Franziska & Sugawara, Naotaka, 2017. "A Cross-Country Database of Fiscal Space," CEPR Discussion Papers 12196, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Kose,Ayhan & Kurlat,Sergio Andres & Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte & Sugawara,Naotaka, 2017. "A cross-country database of fiscal space," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8157, The World Bank.
- Zócimo Campos & Juan Tapia Gertosio & Paulina Natalia Gudaris, 2021. "Country Risk Premium: The Case of Chile," Revista Finanzas y Politica Economica, Universidad Católica de Colombia, vol. 13(2), pages 317-344, September.
- Crespo-Cuaresma, Jesus & Schweinitz, Gregor von & Wendt, Katharina, 2018.
"On the empirics of reserve requirements and economic growth,"
IWH Discussion Papers
8/2018, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
- Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus & von Schweinitz, Gregor & Wendt, Katharina, 2019. "On the empirics of reserve requirements and economic growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 253-274.
Cited by:
- De Grauwe, Paul & Ji, Yuemei, 2024. "How to conduct monetary policies. The ECB in the past, present and future," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
- Glocker, Christian, 2019. "Do reserve requirements reduce the risk of bank failure?," MPRA Paper 95634, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Buchholz, Manuel & von Schweinitz, Gregor & Tonzer, Lena, 2018.
"Did the Swiss exchange rate shock shock the market?,"
IWH Discussion Papers
9/2018, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
Cited by:
- Schelling, Tan & Towbin, Pascal, 2022. "What lies beneath—Negative interest rates and bank lending," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
- Raphael Auer & Ariel Burstein & Katharina Erhardt & Sarah M. Lein, 2019.
"Exports and Invoicing: Evidence from the 2015 Swiss Franc Appreciation,"
AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 109, pages 533-538, May.
- Auer, Raphael & Burstein, Ariel & Erhardt, Katharina & Lein, Sarah, 2020. "Exports and Invoicing: Evidence from the 2015 Swiss Franc Appreciation," Working papers 2020/14, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
- Beutel, Johannes & List, Sophia & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2018.
"An evaluation of early warning models for systemic banking crises: Does machine learning improve predictions?,"
Discussion Papers
48/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
- Beutel, Johannes & List, Sophia & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2019. "An evaluation of early warning models for systemic banking crises: Does machine learning improve predictions?," IWH Discussion Papers 2/2019, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
Cited by:
- Hristov, Nikolay & Roth, Markus, 2019.
"Uncertainty shocks and financial crisis indicators,"
Discussion Papers
36/2019, Deutsche Bundesbank.
- Nikolay Hristov & Markus Roth, 2019. "Uncertainty Shocks and Financial Crisis Indicators," CESifo Working Paper Series 7839, CESifo.
- Aleksei Kipriyanov, 2022. "Comparison of Models for Growth-at-Risk Forecasting," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 81(1), pages 23-45, March.
- Hinterlang, Natascha & Hollmayr, Josef, 2022. "Classification of monetary and fiscal dominance regimes using machine learning techniques," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
- Chris Reimann, 2024. "Predicting financial crises: an evaluation of machine learning algorithms and model explainability for early warning systems," Review of Evolutionary Political Economy, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 51-83, June.
- Umberto Collodel, 2021. "Finding a needle in a haystack: Do Early Warning Systems for Sudden Stops work?," Working Papers halshs-03185520, HAL.
- Tarkocin, Coskun & Donduran, Murat, 2024. "Constructing early warning indicators for banks using machine learning models," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(PB).
- Hyeongwoo Kim & Wen Shi, 2020.
"Forecasting Financial Vulnerability in the US: A Factor Model Approach,"
Auburn Economics Working Paper Series
auwp2020-04, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
- Hyeongwoo Kim & Wen Shi, 2018. "Forecasting Financial Vulnerability in the US: A Factor Model Approach," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2018-07, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
- Kim, Hyeongwoo & Shi, Wen, 2018. "Forecasting Financial Vulnerability in the US: A Factor Model Approach," MPRA Paper 89766, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Hyeongwoo Kim & Wen Shi, 2021. "Forecasting financial vulnerability in the USA: A factor model approach," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(3), pages 439-457, April.
- Hyeongwoo Kim & Wen Shi, 2016. "Forecasting Financial Vulnerability in the US: A Factor Model Approach," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2016-15, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
- Petr Jakubik & Bogdan Gabriel Moinescu, 2023. "What is the optimal capital ratio implying a stable European banking system?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(3), pages 324-343, December.
- Mr. Jorge A Chan-Lau, 2020. "UnFEAR: Unsupervised Feature Extraction Clustering with an Application to Crisis Regimes Classification," IMF Working Papers 2020/262, International Monetary Fund.
- Bluwstein, Kristina & Buckmann, Marcus & Joseph, Andreas & Kapadia, Sujit & Şimşek, Özgür, 2021.
"Credit growth, the yield curve and financial crisis prediction: evidence from a machine learning approach,"
Working Paper Series
2614, European Central Bank.
- Bluwstein, Kristina & Buckmann, Marcus & Joseph, Andreas & Kang, Miao & Kapadia, Sujit & Simsek, Özgür, 2020. "Credit growth, the yield curve and financial crisis prediction: evidence from a machine learning approach," Bank of England working papers 848, Bank of England.
- Bluwstein, Kristina & Buckmann, Marcus & Joseph, Andreas & Kapadia, Sujit & Şimşek, Özgür, 2023. "Credit growth, the yield curve and financial crisis prediction: Evidence from a machine learning approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
- Maria Ludovica Drudi & Stefano Nobili, 2021. "A liquidity risk early warning indicator for Italian banks: a machine learning approach," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1337, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Sondermann, David & Zorell, Nico, 2019. "A macroeconomic vulnerability model for the euro area," Working Paper Series 2306, European Central Bank.
- du Plessis, Emile & Fritsche, Ulrich, 2022. "New forecasting methods for an old problem: Predicting 147 years of systemic financial crises," WiSo-HH Working Paper Series 67, University of Hamburg, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences, WISO Research Laboratory.
- Tihana Škrinjarić, 2023. "Credit-to-GDP Gap Estimates in Real Time: A Stable Indicator for Macroprudential Policy Making in Croatia," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 65(3), pages 582-614, September.
- Alonso-Alvarez, Irma & Molina, Luis, 2023. "How to foresee crises? A new synthetic index of vulnerabilities for emerging economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
- Hinterlang, Natascha & Hollmayr, Josef, 2020. "Classification of monetary and fiscal dominance regimes using machine learning techniques," Discussion Papers 51/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
- Umberto Collodel, 2021. "Finding a needle in a haystack: Do Early Warning Systems for Sudden Stops work?," PSE Working Papers halshs-03185520, HAL.
- Hinterlang, Natascha & Hollmayr, Josef, 2021. "Classification of monetary and fiscal dominance regimes using machine learning techniques," IMFS Working Paper Series 160, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
- Denis Shibitov & Mariam Mamedli, 2019. "The finer points of model comparison in machine learning: forecasting based on russian banks’ data," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps43, Bank of Russia.
- El-Shagi, Makram & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2017.
"Why they keep missing: An empirical investigation of rational inattention of rating agencies,"
IWH Discussion Papers
1/2017, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), revised 2017.
Cited by:
- El-Shagi, Makram & Schweinitz, Gregor von, 2018.
"The joint dynamics of sovereign ratings and government bond yields,"
Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 198-218.
- von Schweinitz, Gregor & El-Shagi, Makram, 2016. "The Joint Dynamics of Sovereign Ratings and Government Bond Yields," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145894, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- El-Shagi, Makram & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2016. "The joint dynamics of sovereign ratings and government bond yields," Discussion Papers 13/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.
- El-Shagi, Makram & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2015. "The Joint Dynamics of Sovereign Ratings and Government Bond Yields," IWH Discussion Papers 4/2015, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
- Bagattini, Giulio & Fecht, Falko & Weber, Patrick, 2019. "The fire-sale channels of universal banks in the European sovereign debt crisis," Discussion Papers 43/2019, Deutsche Bundesbank.
- El-Shagi, Makram & Schweinitz, Gregor von, 2018.
"The joint dynamics of sovereign ratings and government bond yields,"
Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 198-218.
- Sarlin, Peter & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2017.
"Optimizing policymakers' loss functions in crisis prediction: before, within or after?,"
Working Paper Series
2025, European Central Bank.
- Sarlin, Peter & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2021. "Optimizing Policymakers’ Loss Functions In Crisis Prediction: Before, Within Or After?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(1), pages 100-123, January.
- Sarlin, Peter & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2015. "Optimizing Policymakers' Loss Functions in Crisis Prediction: Before, Within or After?," IWH Discussion Papers 6/2015, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
Cited by:
- Quentin Bro de Comères, 2022. "Predicting European Banks Distress Events: Do Financial Information Producers Matter?," Working Papers hal-03752678, HAL.
- Casabianca, Elizabeth Jane & Catalano, Michele & Forni, Lorenzo & Giarda, Elena & Passeri, Simone, 2022.
"A machine learning approach to rank the determinants of banking crises over time and across countries,"
Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
- Elizabeth Jane Casabianca & Michele Catalano & Lorenzo Forni & Elena Giarda & Simone Passeri, 2019. "An Early Warning System for banking crises: From regression-based analysis to machine learning techniques," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0235, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
- Tran Huynh & Silke Uebelmesser, 2022.
"Early warning models for systemic banking crises: can political indicators improve prediction?,"
Jena Economics Research Papers
2022-007, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
- Huynh, Tran & Uebelmesser, Silke, 2024. "Early warning models for systemic banking crises: Can political indicators improve prediction?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
- Makram El‐Shagi & Gregor von Schweinitz, 2022. "Why they keep missing: An empirical investigation of sovereign bond ratings and their timing," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 69(2), pages 186-224, May.
- Beutel, Johannes & List, Sophia & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2019. "Does machine learning help us predict banking crises?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
- Beutel, Johannes & List, Sophia & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2019.
"An evaluation of early warning models for systemic banking crises: Does machine learning improve predictions?,"
IWH Discussion Papers
2/2019, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
- Beutel, Johannes & List, Sophia & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2018. "An evaluation of early warning models for systemic banking crises: Does machine learning improve predictions?," Discussion Papers 48/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
- Donato Ceci & Andrea Silvestrini, 2023.
"Nowcasting the state of the Italian economy: The role of financial markets,"
Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(7), pages 1569-1593, November.
- Donato Ceci & Andrea Silvestrini, 2022. "Nowcasting the state of the Italian economy: the role of financial markets," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1362, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- El-Shagi, Makram, 2017. "Dealing with small sample bias in post-crisis samples," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 1-8.
- El-Shagi, Makram & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2016.
"The joint dynamics of sovereign ratings and government bond yields,"
Discussion Papers
13/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.
- El-Shagi, Makram & Schweinitz, Gregor von, 2018. "The joint dynamics of sovereign ratings and government bond yields," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 198-218.
- von Schweinitz, Gregor & El-Shagi, Makram, 2016. "The Joint Dynamics of Sovereign Ratings and Government Bond Yields," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145894, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- El-Shagi, Makram & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2015. "The Joint Dynamics of Sovereign Ratings and Government Bond Yields," IWH Discussion Papers 4/2015, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
Cited by:
- de Haan, Leo & Vermeulen, Robert, 2021. "Sovereign debt ratings and the country composition of cross-border holdings of euro area sovereign debt," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
- El-Shagi, Makram, 2016. "Much ado about nothing: Sovereign ratings and government bond yields in the OECD," IWH Discussion Papers 22/2016, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
- Dumitriu, Ramona & Stefanescu, Răzvan, 2020. "Iluzii financiare, Partea întâi [Financial Illusions, Part 1]," MPRA Paper 101201, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 17 Jun 2020.
- Hansen, Daniel, 2020. "The effectiveness of fiscal institutions: International financial flogging or domestic constraint?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
- Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Maia, João Pedro Neves, 2023. "Who speaks louder, financial instruments or credit rating agencies? Analyzing the effects of different sovereign risk measures on interest rates in Brazil," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
- Julio Cezar Soares Silva & Diogo Ferreira de Lima Silva & Luciano Ferreira & Adiel Teixeira de Almeida-Filho, 2022. "A dominance-based rough set approach applied to evaluate the credit risk of sovereign bonds," 4OR, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 139-164, March.
- El-Shagi, Makram & Schweinitz, Gregor von, 2021.
"Fiscal policy and fiscal fragility: Empirical evidence from the OECD,"
Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
- El-Shagi, Makram & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2019. "Fiscal policy and fiscal fragility: Empirical evidence from the OECD," IWH Discussion Papers 13/2019, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
- Dany, Geraldine & Gropp, Reint E. & Littke, Helge & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2015.
"Germany's Benefit from the Greek Crisis,"
IWH Online
7/2015, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
Cited by:
- Athanasios Orphanides, 2020.
"The fiscal–monetary policy mix in the euro area: challenges at the zero lower bound,"
Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 35(103), pages 461-517.
- Orphanides, Athanasios, 2017. "The Fiscal-Monetary Policy Mix in the Euro Area: Challenges at the Zero Lower Bound," CEPR Discussion Papers 12039, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Athanasios Orphanides, 2017. "The Fiscal-Monetary Policy Mix in the Euro Area: Challenges at the Zero Lower Bound," European Economy - Discussion Papers 060, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
- Orphanides, Athanasios, 2017. "Central Bank Policies and the Debt Trap," CEPR Discussion Papers 11834, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Boeing-Reicher, Claire A. & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens, 2017. "Estimating the effects of the "flight to quality", with an application to German bond yields and interest payments," Kiel Working Papers 2086, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
- Kapeller, Jakob & Gräbner, Claudius & Heimberger, Philipp, 2019.
"Economic polarisation in Europe: Causes and policy options,"
ifso working paper series
5, University of Duisburg-Essen, Institute for Socioeconomics (ifso).
- Jakob Kapeller & Claudius Graebner & Philipp Heimberger, 2019. "Economic Polarisation in Europe: Causes and Policy Options," ICAE Working Papers 99, Johannes Kepler University, Institute for Comprehensive Analysis of the Economy.
- Pablo G. Bortz, 2015. "The Greek "Rescue": Where Did the Money Go? An Analysis," Working Papers Series 29, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
- Bikramaditya Ghosh & Spyros Papathanasiou & Dimitrios Kenourgios, 2022. "Cross-Country Linkages and Asymmetries of Sovereign Risk Pluralistic Investigation of CDS Spreads," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-10, October.
- Ehrhold, Frank & Rahausen, Christian, 2015. "Zinsersparnisse des Bundes im Zeitraum 2009 - 06/2015 und als Szenariobetrachtung bis 2019," Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Diskussionspapiere 02/2015, University of Greifswald, Faculty of Law and Economics.
- Baumann, Alexendra & Wohlrabe, Klaus, 2019. "Publikationen von Wirtschaftsforschungsinstituten im deutschsprachigen Raum - Eine bibliometrische Analyse [Publications of Economic Research Insitutes in the German Speaking Area - A bibliometric ," MPRA Paper 92240, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Athanasios Orphanides, 2020.
"The fiscal–monetary policy mix in the euro area: challenges at the zero lower bound,"
Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 35(103), pages 461-517.
- El-Shagi, Makram & Lindner, Axel & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2014.
"Real Effective Exchange Rate Misalignment in the Euro Area: A Counterfactual Analysis,"
IWH Discussion Papers
6/2014, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
- Makram El-Shagi & Axel Lindner & Gregor von Schweinitz, 2016. "Real Effective Exchange Rate Misalignment in the Euro Area: A Counterfactual Analysis," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 37-66, February.
Cited by:
- Alberto Bagnai & Christian Alexander Mongeau Ospina, 2017. "Neoclassical versus Post-Keynesian Explanations of the Pre-Great Recession Productivity Slowdown: Panel Evidence," a/ Working Papers Series 1704, Italian Association for the Study of Economic Asymmetries, Rome (Italy).
- Samba Diop & Simplice A. Asongu & Vanessa S. Tchamyou, 2021.
"The Macroeconomic Impact of Recent Political Conflicts in Africa: Generalized Synthetic Counterfactual Evidence,"
Working Papers
21/060, European Xtramile Centre of African Studies (EXCAS).
- Samba Diop & Simplice A. Asongu & Vanessa S. Tchamyou, 2021. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Recent Political Conflicts in Africa: Generalized Synthetic Counterfactual Evidence," Research Africa Network Working Papers 21/060, Research Africa Network (RAN).
- Diop, Samba & Asongu, Simplice & Tchamyou, Vanessa, 2021. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Recent Political Conflicts in Africa: Generalized Synthetic Counterfactual Evidence," MPRA Paper 110696, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Samba Diop & Simplice A. Asongu & Vanessa S. Tchamyou, 2021. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Recent Political Conflicts in Africa: Generalized Synthetic Counterfactual Evidence," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 21/060, African Governance and Development Institute..
- Aytuğ, Hüseyin, 2017.
"Does the reserve options mechanism really decrease exchange rate volatility? The synthetic control method approach,"
International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 405-416.
- Aytug, Huseyin, 2016. "Does the Reserve Options Mechanism really decrease exchange rate volatility? The Synthetic Control Method Approach," MPRA Paper 71400, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Fidora, Michael & Giordano, Claire & Schmitz, Martin, 2017.
"Real exchange rate misalignments in the euro area,"
Working Paper Series
2108, European Central Bank.
- Michael Fidora & Claire Giordano & Martin Schmitz, 2021. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignments in the Euro Area," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 71-107, February.
- Michael Fidora & Claire Giordano & Martin Schmitz, 2018. "Real exchange rate misalignments in the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1162, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Baccaro, Lucio & D'Antoni, Massimo, 2020. "Has the "external constraint" contributed to Italy's stagnation? A critical event analysis," MPIfG Discussion Paper 20/9, Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies.
- Razek, Noha H.A. & McQuinn, Brian, 2021. "Saudi Arabia's currency misalignment and international competitiveness, accounting for geopolitical risks and the super-contango oil market," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
- Jaromir Baxa & Michal Paulus, 2020.
"Exchange Rate Misalignments, Growth, and Institutions,"
Working Papers IES
2020/27, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Aug 2020.
- Jaromír Baxa & Michal Paulus, 2024. "Exchange rate misalignments, growth, and institutions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 67(4), pages 1705-1799, October.
- Buchholz, Manuel & von Schweinitz, Gregor & Tonzer, Lena, 2018. "Did the Swiss exchange rate shock shock the market?," IWH Discussion Papers 9/2018, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
- El-Shagi, Makram & Schweinitz, Gregor von, 2018.
"The joint dynamics of sovereign ratings and government bond yields,"
Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 198-218.
- von Schweinitz, Gregor & El-Shagi, Makram, 2016. "The Joint Dynamics of Sovereign Ratings and Government Bond Yields," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145894, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- El-Shagi, Makram & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2016. "The joint dynamics of sovereign ratings and government bond yields," Discussion Papers 13/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.
- El-Shagi, Makram & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2015. "The Joint Dynamics of Sovereign Ratings and Government Bond Yields," IWH Discussion Papers 4/2015, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
- Campos, Nauro F. & Eichenauer, Vera Z. & Sturm, Jan-Egbert, 2020.
"Close encounters of the European kind: Economic integration, sectoral heterogeneity and structural reforms,"
European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
- Nauro F. Campos & Vera Z. Eichenauer & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2020. "Close Encounters of the European Kind: Economic Integration, Sectoral Heterogeneity and Structural Reforms," CESifo Working Paper Series 8582, CESifo.
- Jan-Egbert Sturm & Vera Eichenauer & Nauro Campos, 2020. "Close Encounters of the European Kind: Economic Integration, Sectoral Heterogeneity and Structural Reforms," KOF Working papers 20-482, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
- Campos, Nauro F. & Eichenauer, Vera Z. & Sturm, Jan-Egbert, 2020. "Close Encounters of the European Kind: Economic Integration, Sectoral Heterogeneity and Structural Reforms," IZA Discussion Papers 13706, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
- Caccavale, Oscar Maria & Giuffrida, Valerio, 2020. "The Proteus composite index: Towards a better metric for global food security," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
- Beutel, Johannes & List, Sophia & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2019. "Does machine learning help us predict banking crises?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
- Amélie Barbier-Gauchard & Meixing Dai & Claire Mainguy & Jamel Saadaoui & Moïse Sidiropoulos & Isabelle Terraz & Jamel Trabelsi, 2020.
"Towards a more resilient European Union after the COVID-19 crisis,"
Working Papers of BETA
2020-33, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
- Amélie Barbier-Gauchard & Meixing Dai & Claire Mainguy & Jamel Saadaoui & Moïse Sidiropoulos & Isabelle Terraz & Jamel Trabelsi, 2021. "Towards a more resilient European Union after the COVID-19 crisis," Post-Print hal-03196689, HAL.
- Amélie Barbier-Gauchard & Meixing Dai & Claire Mainguy & Jamel Saadaoui & Moïse Sidiropoulos & Isabelle Terraz & Jamel Trabelsi, 2021. "Towards a more resilient European Union after the COVID-19 crisis," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 11(2), pages 321-348, June.
- Mpho Bosupeng & Janet Dzator & Andrew Nadolny, 2019. "Exchange Rate Misalignment and Capital Flight from Botswana: A Cointegration Approach with Risk Thresholds," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-26, June.
- Puzzello, Laura & Gomis-Porqueras, Pedro, 2018. "Winners and losers from the €uro," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 129-152.
- Beutel, Johannes & List, Sophia & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2019.
"An evaluation of early warning models for systemic banking crises: Does machine learning improve predictions?,"
IWH Discussion Papers
2/2019, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
- Beutel, Johannes & List, Sophia & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2018. "An evaluation of early warning models for systemic banking crises: Does machine learning improve predictions?," Discussion Papers 48/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
- Constantin Colonescu, 2017. "Macroeconomic Effects of the European Monetary Union: A Counterfactual Analysis," Athens Journal of Business & Economics, Athens Institute for Education and Research (ATINER), vol. 3(2), pages 171-186, April.
- Bagnai, Alberto & Granville, Brigitte & Mongeau Ospina, Christian A., 2017. "Withdrawal of Italy from the euro area: Stochastic simulations of a structural macroeconometric model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 524-538.
- Hope, David, 2016. "Estimating the effect of the EMU on current account balances: A synthetic control approach," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 20-40.
- Baak, SaangJoon, 2017. "Is the yen misaligned more during the Abenomics period?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 26-34.
- Hong Zhuang & Miao Grace Wang & Imre Ersoy & Mesut Eren, 2023. "Does joining the European monetary union improve labor productivity? A synthetic control approach," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 59(3), pages 287-306, June.
- Börger, Carina & Kempa, Bernd, 2024. "Real exchange rate convergence in the euro area: Evidence from a dynamic factor model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PA), pages 213-224.
- Gregor von Schweinitz & Lena Tonzer & Manuel Buchholz, 2021. "Monetary policy through exchange rate pegs: The removal of the Swiss franc‐Euro floor and stock price reactions," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 21(4), pages 1382-1406, December.
- Florentin Kerschbaumer & Andreas Maschke, 2021. "The Implications of Monetary Union for Income Inequality: An Empirical Assessment," Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft - WuG, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik, vol. 47(4), pages 537-574.
- El-Shagi, Makram & Knedlik, Tobias & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2012.
"Predicting Financial Crises: The (Statistical) Significance of the Signals Approach,"
IWH Discussion Papers
3/2012, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
- El-Shagi, M. & Knedlik, T. & von Schweinitz, G., 2013. "Predicting financial crises: The (statistical) significance of the signals approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 76-103.
Cited by:
- Sarlin, Peter, 2013.
"On policymakers' loss function and the evaluation of early warning systems,"
Working Paper Series
1509, European Central Bank.
- Sarlin, Peter, 2013. "On policymakers’ loss functions and the evaluation of early warning systems," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 1-7.
- Knedlik, Tobias & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2011.
"Macroeconomic Imbalances as Indicators for Debt Crises in Europe,"
IWH Discussion Papers
12/2011, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
- Tobias Knedlik & Gregor Von Schweinitz, 2012. "Macroeconomic Imbalances as Indicators for Debt Crises in Europe," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(5), pages 726-745, September.
- Geraldine Dany-Knedlik & Martina Kämpfe & Tobias Knedlik, 2021.
"The appropriateness of the macroeconomic imbalance procedure for Central and Eastern European Countries,"
Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 48(1), pages 123-139, February.
- Dany-Knedlik, Geraldine & Kämpfe, Martina & Knedlik, Tobias, 2021. "The appropriateness of the macroeconomic imbalance procedure for Central and Eastern European Countries," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 48(1), pages 123-139.
- Kämpfe, Martina & Knedlik, Tobias, 2017. "The appropriateness of the macroeconomic imbalance procedure for Central and Eastern European countries," IWH Discussion Papers 16/2017, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
- Hyeongwoo Kim & Wen Shi & Hyun Hak Kim, 2020.
"Forecasting financial stress indices in Korea: a factor model approach,"
Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(6), pages 2859-2898, December.
- Hyeongwoo Kim & Wen Shi & Hyun Hak Kim, 2018. "Forecasting Financial Stress Indices in Korea: A Factor Model Approach," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2018-06, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
- Kim, Hyeongwoo & Shi, Wen & Kim, Hyun Hak, 2018. "Forecasting Financial Stress Indices in Korea: A Factor Model Approach," MPRA Paper 89768, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Hyeongwoo Kim & Hyun Hak Kim & Wen Shi, 2015. "Forecasting Financial Stress Indices in Korea: A Factor Model Approach," Working Papers 2015-30, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
- Hyeongwoo Kim & Wen Shi & Hyun Hak Kim, 2016. "Forecasting Financial Stress Indices in Korea: A Factor Model Approach," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2016-10, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
- Hyeongwoo Kim & Wen Shi & Hyun Hak Kim, 2019. "Forecasting Financial Stress Indices in Korea: A Factor Model Approach," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2019-02, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
- Yamarik, Steven & El-Shagi, Makram & Yamashiro, Guy, 2016.
"Does inequality lead to credit growth? Testing the Rajan hypothesis using state-level data,"
Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 63-67.
- Steven Yamarik & Makram El Shagi, 2016. "Does Inequality Lead to Credit Growth? Testing the Rajan Hypothesis Using State-Level Data," Working Papers 2016.01, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
- El-Shagi, Makram & Kelly, Logan, 2019. "What can we learn from country-level liquidity in the EMU?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 75-83.
- Knedlik, Tobias, 2013.
"The European Commission's Scoreboard of Macroeconomic Imbalances: The impact of preferences on an early warning system,"
VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order
80028, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Knedlik, Tobias, 2012. "The European Commission’s Scoreboard of Macroeconomic Imbalances – The Impact of Preferences on an Early Warning System," IWH Discussion Papers 10/2012, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
- Hyeongwoo Kim & Kyunghwan Ko, 2017.
"Improving Forecast Accuracy of Financial Vulnerability: PLS Factor Model Approach,"
Auburn Economics Working Paper Series
auwp2017-03, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
- Hyeongwoo Kim & Kyunghwan Ko, 2019. "Improving Forecast Accuracy of Financial Vulnerability: PLS Factor Model Approach," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2019-03, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
- Kim, Hyeongwoo & Ko, Kyunghwan, 2018. "Improving Forecast Accuracy of Financial Vulnerability: PLS Factor Model Approach," MPRA Paper 89449, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Kim, Hyeongwoo & Ko, Kyunghwan, 2020. "Improving forecast accuracy of financial vulnerability: PLS factor model approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 341-355.
- Hyeongwoo Kim & Wen Shi, 2020.
"Forecasting Financial Vulnerability in the US: A Factor Model Approach,"
Auburn Economics Working Paper Series
auwp2020-04, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
- Hyeongwoo Kim & Wen Shi, 2018. "Forecasting Financial Vulnerability in the US: A Factor Model Approach," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2018-07, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
- Kim, Hyeongwoo & Shi, Wen, 2018. "Forecasting Financial Vulnerability in the US: A Factor Model Approach," MPRA Paper 89766, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Hyeongwoo Kim & Wen Shi, 2021. "Forecasting financial vulnerability in the USA: A factor model approach," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(3), pages 439-457, April.
- Hyeongwoo Kim & Wen Shi, 2016. "Forecasting Financial Vulnerability in the US: A Factor Model Approach," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2016-15, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
- Knedlik, Tobias, 2014. "The impact of preferences on early warning systems — The case of the European Commission's Scoreboard," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 157-166.
- Sarlin, Peter & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2017.
"Optimizing policymakers' loss functions in crisis prediction: before, within or after?,"
Working Paper Series
2025, European Central Bank.
- Sarlin, Peter & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2015. "Optimizing Policymakers' Loss Functions in Crisis Prediction: Before, Within or After?," IWH Discussion Papers 6/2015, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
- Sarlin, Peter & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2021. "Optimizing Policymakers’ Loss Functions In Crisis Prediction: Before, Within Or After?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(1), pages 100-123, January.
- Stefan Eichler, 2017. "How Do Political Factors Shape the Bank Risk–Sovereign Risk Nexus in Emerging Markets?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 451-474, August.
- Popescu, Alexandra & Turcu, Camelia, 2017.
"Sovereign debt and systemic risk in the eurozone,"
Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 275-284.
- Alexandra Popescu & Camélia Turcu, 2017. "Sovereign debt and systemic risk in the eurozone," Post-Print hal-02521449, HAL.
- El-Shagi, Makram & Fidrmuc, Jarko & Yamarik, Steven, 2020.
"Inequality and credit growth in Russian regions,"
Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 550-558.
- Makram El-Shagi & Jarko Fidrmuc & Steven Yamarik, 2019. "Inequality and credit growth in Russian regions," CFDS Discussion Paper Series 2019/6, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China.
- Hyeongwoo Kim & Wen Shi, 2015. "Forecasting Financial Market Vulnerability in the U.S.: A Factor Model Approach," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2015-04, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
- Beutel, Johannes & List, Sophia & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2019. "Does machine learning help us predict banking crises?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
- von Schweinitz, Gregor & Sarlin, Peter, 2015. "Signaling Crises: How to Get Good Out-of-Sample Performance Out of the Early Warning System," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112964, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Markus Holopainen & Peter Sarlin, 2015. "Toward robust early-warning models: A horse race, ensembles and model uncertainty," Papers 1501.04682, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2016.
- Tsionas, Mike G. & Mamatzakis, Emmanuel & Ongena, Steven, 2020. "Does risk aversion affect bank output loss? The case of the Eurozone," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 282(3), pages 1127-1145.
- Beutel, Johannes & List, Sophia & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2019.
"An evaluation of early warning models for systemic banking crises: Does machine learning improve predictions?,"
IWH Discussion Papers
2/2019, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
- Beutel, Johannes & List, Sophia & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2018. "An evaluation of early warning models for systemic banking crises: Does machine learning improve predictions?," Discussion Papers 48/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
- Hyeongwoo Kim & Kyunghwan Ko, 2017. "Improving Forecast Accuracy of Financial Vulnerability: Partial Least Squares Factor Model Approach," Working Papers 2017-14, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
- Makram El-shagi & Logan J Kelly, 2014.
"Liquidity in the liquidity crisis: evidence from Divisia monetary aggregates in Germany and the European crisis countries,"
Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(1), pages 63-72.
- El-Shagi, Makram & Kelly, Logan, 2013. "Liquidity in the Liquidity Crisis: Evidence from Divisia Monetary Aggregates in Germany and the European Crisis Countries," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79935, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Zhi-Qiang Jiang & Gang-Jin Wang & Askery Canabarro & Boris Podobnik & Chi Xie & H. Eugene Stanley & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2016.
"Short term prediction of extreme returns based on the recurrence interval analysis,"
Papers
1610.08230, arXiv.org.
- Zhi-Qiang Jiang & Gang-Jin Wang & Askery Canabarro & Boris Podobnik & Chi Xie & H. Eugene Stanley & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2018. "Short term prediction of extreme returns based on the recurrence interval analysis," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(3), pages 353-370, March.
- Christian Dreger & Konstantin A. Kholodilin, 2018. "Early Warning System of Government Debt Crises," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1724, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Makram El-Shagi & Axel Lindner & Gregor von Schweinitz, 2016.
"Real Effective Exchange Rate Misalignment in the Euro Area: A Counterfactual Analysis,"
Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 37-66, February.
- El-Shagi, Makram & Lindner, Axel & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2014. "Real Effective Exchange Rate Misalignment in the Euro Area: A Counterfactual Analysis," IWH Discussion Papers 6/2014, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
- Tomáš Domonkos & Filip Ostrihoň & Ivana Šikulová & Maria Širaňová, 2016. "Analyzing macroeconomic imbalances in the EU," EcoMod2016 9660, EcoMod.
- Magnus Saß, 2024. "Detecting excessive credit growth: An approach based on structural counterfactuals," Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers 0046, Berlin School of Economics.
- Panayotis Michaelides & Mike Tsionas & Panos Xidonas, 2020. "A Bayesian Signals Approach for the Detection of Crises," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 18(3), pages 551-585, September.
- El-Shagi, Makram & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2012.
"Qual VAR Revisited: Good Forecast, Bad Story,"
IWH Discussion Papers
12/2012, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
- Makram El-Shagi & Gregor Von Schweinitz, 2016. "Qual Var Revisited: Good Forecast, Bad Story," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 293-321, November.
- Makram El-Shagi & Gregor von Schweinitz, 2016. "Qual VAR revisited: Good forecast, bad story," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 19, pages 293-322, November.
Cited by:
- Michael W. McCracken & Joseph T. McGillicuddy & Michael T. Owyang, 2022.
"Binary Conditional Forecasts,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 1246-1258, June.
- Michael W. McCracken & Joseph McGillicuddy & Michael T. Owyang, 2019. "Binary Conditional Forecasts," Working Papers 2019-029, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised Apr 2021.
- Aßhoff, Sina & Belke, Ansgar & Osowski, Thomas, 2021.
"Unconventional monetary policy and inflation expectations in the Euro area,"
Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
- Aßhoff, Sina & Belke, Ansgar & Osowski, Thomas, 2020. "Unconventional monetary policy and inflation expectations in the euro area," Ruhr Economic Papers 837, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
- Knedlik, Tobias & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2011.
"Macroeconomic Imbalances as Indicators for Debt Crises in Europe,"
IWH Discussion Papers
12/2011, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
- Tobias Knedlik & Gregor Von Schweinitz, 2012. "Macroeconomic Imbalances as Indicators for Debt Crises in Europe," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(5), pages 726-745, September.
Cited by:
- Makram El-Shagi & Gregor von Schweinitz, 2016.
"Qual VAR revisited: Good forecast, bad story,"
Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 19, pages 293-322, November.
- Makram El-Shagi & Gregor Von Schweinitz, 2016. "Qual Var Revisited: Good Forecast, Bad Story," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 293-321, November.
- El-Shagi, Makram & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2012. "Qual VAR Revisited: Good Forecast, Bad Story," IWH Discussion Papers 12/2012, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
- Geraldine Dany-Knedlik & Martina Kämpfe & Tobias Knedlik, 2021.
"The appropriateness of the macroeconomic imbalance procedure for Central and Eastern European Countries,"
Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 48(1), pages 123-139, February.
- Dany-Knedlik, Geraldine & Kämpfe, Martina & Knedlik, Tobias, 2021. "The appropriateness of the macroeconomic imbalance procedure for Central and Eastern European Countries," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 48(1), pages 123-139.
- Kämpfe, Martina & Knedlik, Tobias, 2017. "The appropriateness of the macroeconomic imbalance procedure for Central and Eastern European countries," IWH Discussion Papers 16/2017, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
- El-Shagi, Makram & Kelly, Logan, 2019. "What can we learn from country-level liquidity in the EMU?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 75-83.
- Allado, Armin Paul & Lim, Lance Nicklaus & Tulauan, Nerie Angeli & Abreu, Marvin Kyle & Agabin, Patricia Louise & Regio, Joaquin Charles, 2022. "Construction of an Index Tracker for Debt Sustainability Assessment in the Philippines," ADBI Working Papers 1339, Asian Development Bank Institute.
- Knedlik, Tobias, 2013.
"The European Commission's Scoreboard of Macroeconomic Imbalances: The impact of preferences on an early warning system,"
VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order
80028, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Knedlik, Tobias, 2012. "The European Commission’s Scoreboard of Macroeconomic Imbalances – The Impact of Preferences on an Early Warning System," IWH Discussion Papers 10/2012, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
- Wenting Zhang & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2020. "Do Machine Learning Techniques and Dynamic Methods Help Forecast US Natural Gas Crises?," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-22, May.
- Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2014. "Gemeinschaftsdiagnose Frühjahr 2014: Deutsche Konjunktur im Aufschwung – aber Gegenwind von der Wirtschaftspolitik," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 67(08), pages 03-64, April.
- Knedlik, Tobias, 2014. "The impact of preferences on early warning systems — The case of the European Commission's Scoreboard," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 157-166.
- Sarlin, Peter & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2017.
"Optimizing policymakers' loss functions in crisis prediction: before, within or after?,"
Working Paper Series
2025, European Central Bank.
- Sarlin, Peter & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2015. "Optimizing Policymakers' Loss Functions in Crisis Prediction: Before, Within or After?," IWH Discussion Papers 6/2015, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
- Sarlin, Peter & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2021. "Optimizing Policymakers’ Loss Functions In Crisis Prediction: Before, Within Or After?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(1), pages 100-123, January.
- Stefan Eichler, 2017. "How Do Political Factors Shape the Bank Risk–Sovereign Risk Nexus in Emerging Markets?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 451-474, August.
- Sarlin, Peter & Holopainen, Markus, 2016. "Toward robust early-warning models: a horse race, ensembles and model uncertainty," Working Paper Series 1900, European Central Bank.
- Popescu, Alexandra & Turcu, Camelia, 2017.
"Sovereign debt and systemic risk in the eurozone,"
Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 275-284.
- Alexandra Popescu & Camélia Turcu, 2017. "Sovereign debt and systemic risk in the eurozone," Post-Print hal-02521449, HAL.
- El-Shagi, Makram & Knedlik, Tobias & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2012.
"Predicting Financial Crises: The (Statistical) Significance of the Signals Approach,"
IWH Discussion Papers
3/2012, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
- El-Shagi, M. & Knedlik, T. & von Schweinitz, G., 2013. "Predicting financial crises: The (statistical) significance of the signals approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 76-103.
- Dermot Hodson, 2013. "The Eurozone in 2012: ‘Whatever It Takes to Preserve the Euro'?," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51, pages 183-200, September.
- Creel, Jérôme & Hubert, Paul & Saraceno, Francesco, 2012. "The European Fiscal Compact: A Counterfactual Assessment," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 27, pages 537-563.
- Beutel, Johannes & List, Sophia & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2019. "Does machine learning help us predict banking crises?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
- von Schweinitz, Gregor & Sarlin, Peter, 2015. "Signaling Crises: How to Get Good Out-of-Sample Performance Out of the Early Warning System," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112964, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Markus Holopainen & Peter Sarlin, 2015. "Toward robust early-warning models: A horse race, ensembles and model uncertainty," Papers 1501.04682, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2016.
- Barbara Jarmulska, 2022.
"Random forest versus logit models: Which offers better early warning of fiscal stress?,"
Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(3), pages 455-490, April.
- Jarmulska, Barbara, 2020. "Random forest versus logit models: which offers better early warning of fiscal stress?," Working Paper Series 2408, European Central Bank.
- Buch, Claudia M. & Holtemöller, Oliver, 2014.
"Do We Need New Modelling Approaches in Macroeconomics?,"
IWH Discussion Papers
8/2014, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
- Claudia M. Buch & Oliver Holtemöller, 2014. "Do we need new modelling approaches in macroeconomics?," Chapters, in: Ewald Nowotny & Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald & Peter Backé (ed.), Financial Cycles and the Real Economy, chapter 3, pages 36-58, Edward Elgar Publishing.
- Beutel, Johannes & List, Sophia & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2019.
"An evaluation of early warning models for systemic banking crises: Does machine learning improve predictions?,"
IWH Discussion Papers
2/2019, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
- Beutel, Johannes & List, Sophia & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2018. "An evaluation of early warning models for systemic banking crises: Does machine learning improve predictions?," Discussion Papers 48/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
- Makram El-shagi & Logan J Kelly, 2014.
"Liquidity in the liquidity crisis: evidence from Divisia monetary aggregates in Germany and the European crisis countries,"
Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(1), pages 63-72.
- El-Shagi, Makram & Kelly, Logan, 2013. "Liquidity in the Liquidity Crisis: Evidence from Divisia Monetary Aggregates in Germany and the European Crisis Countries," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79935, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Plödt, Martin & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim & Schwarzmüller, Tim, 2015. "Das europäische Verfahren zur Vermeidung und Korrektur makroökonomischer Ungleichgewichte: Auswertung der bisherigen Erfahrung und mögliche Reformansätze," Kieler Beiträge zur Wirtschaftspolitik 7, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
- Christian Dreger & Konstantin A. Kholodilin, 2018. "Early Warning System of Government Debt Crises," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1724, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Makram El-Shagi & Axel Lindner & Gregor von Schweinitz, 2016.
"Real Effective Exchange Rate Misalignment in the Euro Area: A Counterfactual Analysis,"
Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 37-66, February.
- El-Shagi, Makram & Lindner, Axel & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2014. "Real Effective Exchange Rate Misalignment in the Euro Area: A Counterfactual Analysis," IWH Discussion Papers 6/2014, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
- Catarina Lourenço Soares & Adelaide Maria de Sousa Figueiredo & Fernanda Otília de Sousa Figueiredo, 2014. "Analysis of Public, Private and Financial Sectors in European Countries Through the Statis Methodology," FEP Working Papers 541, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
- Luigi Bonatti & Andrea Fracasso, 2013. "The German Model and the European Crisis," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(6), pages 1023-1039, November.
- Luiza APOSTOL, 2014. "A Set of Ten Relevant Statistical Indicators of Romania’s External Debt Today," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 62(1), pages 67-78, January.
- Lanbiao Liu & Chen Chen & Bo Wang, 2022. "Predicting financial crises with machine learning methods," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(5), pages 871-910, August.
- Magnus Saß, 2024. "Detecting excessive credit growth: An approach based on structural counterfactuals," Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers 0046, Berlin School of Economics.
- Panayotis Michaelides & Mike Tsionas & Panos Xidonas, 2020. "A Bayesian Signals Approach for the Detection of Crises," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 18(3), pages 551-585, September.
- Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2012. "Deutsche Konjunktur im Aufwind – Europäische Schuldenkrise schwelt weiter," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 65(08), pages 03-72, April.
- Rho, Caterina & Saenz, Manrique, 2021. "Financial stress and the probability of sovereign default," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
Articles
- Sarlin, Peter & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2021.
"Optimizing Policymakers’ Loss Functions In Crisis Prediction: Before, Within Or After?,"
Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(1), pages 100-123, January.
See citations under working paper version above.
- Sarlin, Peter & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2015. "Optimizing Policymakers' Loss Functions in Crisis Prediction: Before, Within or After?," IWH Discussion Papers 6/2015, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
- Sarlin, Peter & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2017. "Optimizing policymakers' loss functions in crisis prediction: before, within or after?," Working Paper Series 2025, European Central Bank.
- Gregor von Schweinitz & Lena Tonzer & Manuel Buchholz, 2021.
"Monetary policy through exchange rate pegs: The removal of the Swiss franc‐Euro floor and stock price reactions,"
International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 21(4), pages 1382-1406, December.
Cited by:
- Anna Bykhovskaya & James A. Duffy, 2022. "The Local to Unity Dynamic Tobit Model," Papers 2210.02599, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.
- El-Shagi, Makram & Schweinitz, Gregor von, 2021.
"Fiscal policy and fiscal fragility: Empirical evidence from the OECD,"
Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
See citations under working paper version above.
- El-Shagi, Makram & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2019. "Fiscal policy and fiscal fragility: Empirical evidence from the OECD," IWH Discussion Papers 13/2019, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
- Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus & von Schweinitz, Gregor & Wendt, Katharina, 2019.
"On the empirics of reserve requirements and economic growth,"
Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 253-274.
See citations under working paper version above.
- Crespo-Cuaresma, Jesus & Schweinitz, Gregor von & Wendt, Katharina, 2018. "On the empirics of reserve requirements and economic growth," IWH Discussion Papers 8/2018, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
- Beutel, Johannes & List, Sophia & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2019.
"Does machine learning help us predict banking crises?,"
Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
Cited by:
- Chris Reimann, 2024. "Predicting financial crises: an evaluation of machine learning algorithms and model explainability for early warning systems," Review of Evolutionary Political Economy, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 51-83, June.
- Grodecka-Messi, Anna & Kenny, Seán & Ögren, Anders, 2021.
"Predictors of bank distress: The 1907 crisis in Sweden,"
Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
- Grodecka, Anna & Kenny, Seán & Ögren, Anders, 2018. "Predictors of Bank Distress:The 1907 Crisis in Sweden," Working Paper Series 358, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
- Grodecka, Anna & Kenny, Seán & Ögren, Anders, 2018. "Predictors of Bank Distress: The 1907 Crisis in Sweden," Lund Papers in Economic History 180, Lund University, Department of Economic History.
- Beutel, Johannes & Metiu, Norbert & Stockerl, Valentin, 2021.
"Toothless tiger with claws? Financial stability communication, expectations, and risk-taking,"
Discussion Papers
05/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
- Beutel, Johannes & Metiu, Norbert & Stockerl, Valentin, 2021. "Toothless tiger with claws? Financial stability communication, expectations, and risk-taking," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 53-69.
- Casabianca, Elizabeth Jane & Catalano, Michele & Forni, Lorenzo & Giarda, Elena & Passeri, Simone, 2022.
"A machine learning approach to rank the determinants of banking crises over time and across countries,"
Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
- Elizabeth Jane Casabianca & Michele Catalano & Lorenzo Forni & Elena Giarda & Simone Passeri, 2019. "An Early Warning System for banking crises: From regression-based analysis to machine learning techniques," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0235, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
- Hartwig, Benny & Meinerding, Christoph & Schüler, Yves S., 2021.
"Identifying indicators of systemic risk,"
Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
- Hartwig, Benny & Meinerding, Christoph & Schüler, Yves, 2020. "Identifying indicators of systemic risk," Discussion Papers 33/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
- Pham, Xuan T.T. & Ho, Tin H., 2021. "Using boosting algorithms to predict bank failure: An untold story," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 40-54.
- Ponomarenko, Alexey & Tatarintsev, Stas, 2023.
"Incorporating financial development indicators into early warning systems,"
The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
- Alexey Ponomarenko & Stas Tatarintsev, 2020. "Incorporating financial development indicators into early warning systems," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps58, Bank of Russia.
- Tölö, Eero, 2020. "Predicting systemic financial crises with recurrent neural networks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
- Tran Huynh & Silke Uebelmesser, 2022.
"Early warning models for systemic banking crises: can political indicators improve prediction?,"
Jena Economics Research Papers
2022-007, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
- Huynh, Tran & Uebelmesser, Silke, 2024. "Early warning models for systemic banking crises: Can political indicators improve prediction?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
- Ellis, Scott & Sharma, Satish & Brzeszczyński, Janusz, 2022. "Systemic risk measures and regulatory challenges," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
- Wang, Peiwan & Zong, Lu, 2023. "Does machine learning help private sectors to alarm crises? Evidence from China’s currency market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 611(C).
- Nakatani, Ryota, 2020.
"Macroprudential policy and the probability of a banking crisis,"
Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1169-1186.
- Nakatani, Ryota, 2020. "Macroprudential Policy and the Probability of a Banking Crisis," MPRA Paper 101157, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Doumpos, Michalis & Zopounidis, Constantin & Gounopoulos, Dimitrios & Platanakis, Emmanouil & Zhang, Wenke, 2023. "Operational research and artificial intelligence methods in banking," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 306(1), pages 1-16.
- Bui, Dien Giau & Chen, Yan-Shing & Hsu, Hsing-Hua & Lin, Chih-Yung, 2020. "Labor unions and bank risk culture: evidence from the financial crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
- Susanna Levantesi & Gabriella Piscopo, 2020. "The Importance of Economic Variables on London Real Estate Market: A Random Forest Approach," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-17, October.
- Truong, Chi & Sheen, Jeffrey & Trück, Stefan & Villafuerte, James, 2022. "Early warning systems using dynamic factor models: An application to Asian economies," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
- Metiu, Norbert, 2022. "A composite indicator of financial conditions for Germany," Technical Papers 03/2022, Deutsche Bundesbank.
- Antulov-Fantulin, Nino & Lagravinese, Raffaele & Resce, Giuliano, 2021. "Predicting bankruptcy of local government: A machine learning approach," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 681-699.
- Sreenivasulu Puli & Nagaraju Thota & A. C. V. Subrahmanyam, 2024. "Assessing Machine Learning Techniques for Predicting Banking Crises in India," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 17(4), pages 1-16, March.
- Solomon Y. Deku & Alper Kara & Artur Semeyutin, 2021. "The predictive strength of MBS yield spreads during asset bubbles," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 111-142, January.
- Hristov, Nikolay & Roth, Markus, 2022. "Uncertainty shocks and systemic-risk indicators," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
- Mauro Paoloni & Massimiliano Celli, 2023. "The Covid-19 Pandemic and the Eurozone: A Reconnaissance of E.U. Financial Assistance to Counteract the Coronavirus’s Perfect Storm," International Journal of Business and Management, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 16(7), pages 1-72, February.
- Leonard Sabetti & Ronald Heijmans, 2020. "Shallow or deep? Detecting anomalous flows in the Canadian Automated Clearing and Settlement System using an autoencoder," Working Papers 681, DNB.
- Chau, Michael & Lin, Chih-Yung & Lin, Tse-Chun, 2020. "Wisdom of crowds before the 2007–2009 global financial crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
- Bitetto, Alessandro & Cerchiello, Paola & Mertzanis, Charilaos, 2023. "On the efficient synthesis of short financial time series: A Dynamic Factor Model approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
- Ademmer, Martin & Beckmann, Joscha & Bode, Eckhardt & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Funke, Manuel & Hauber, Philipp & Heidland, Tobias & Hinz, Julian & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Söder, Mareike & Stame, 2021. "Big Data in der makroökonomischen Analyse," Kieler Beiträge zur Wirtschaftspolitik 32, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
- Li Xian Liu & Shuangzhe Liu & Milind Sathye, 2021. "Predicting Bank Failures: A Synthesis of Literature and Directions for Future Research," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-24, October.
- Zongxin Zhang & Ying Chen, 2022. "Tail Risk Early Warning System for Capital Markets Based on Machine Learning Algorithms," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 60(3), pages 901-923, October.
- Kristóf, Tamás & Virág, Miklós, 2022. "EU-27 bank failure prediction with C5.0 decision trees and deep learning neural networks," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
- Lanbiao Liu & Chen Chen & Bo Wang, 2022. "Predicting financial crises with machine learning methods," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(5), pages 871-910, August.
- Magnus Saß, 2024. "Detecting excessive credit growth: An approach based on structural counterfactuals," Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers 0046, Berlin School of Economics.
- du Plessis, Emile, 2022. "Multinomial modeling methods: Predicting four decades of international banking crises," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(2).
- Dichtl, Hubert & Drobetz, Wolfgang & Otto, Tizian, 2023. "Forecasting Stock Market Crashes via Machine Learning," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
- El-Shagi, Makram & Schweinitz, Gregor von, 2018.
"The joint dynamics of sovereign ratings and government bond yields,"
Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 198-218.
See citations under working paper version above.
- von Schweinitz, Gregor & El-Shagi, Makram, 2016. "The Joint Dynamics of Sovereign Ratings and Government Bond Yields," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145894, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- El-Shagi, Makram & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2016. "The joint dynamics of sovereign ratings and government bond yields," Discussion Papers 13/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.
- El-Shagi, Makram & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2015. "The Joint Dynamics of Sovereign Ratings and Government Bond Yields," IWH Discussion Papers 4/2015, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
- Makram El-Shagi & Axel Lindner & Gregor von Schweinitz, 2016.
"Real Effective Exchange Rate Misalignment in the Euro Area: A Counterfactual Analysis,"
Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 37-66, February.
See citations under working paper version above.
- El-Shagi, Makram & Lindner, Axel & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2014. "Real Effective Exchange Rate Misalignment in the Euro Area: A Counterfactual Analysis," IWH Discussion Papers 6/2014, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
- Makram El-Shagi & Gregor von Schweinitz, 2016.
"Qual VAR revisited: Good forecast, bad story,"
Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 19, pages 293-322, November.
- Makram El-Shagi & Gregor Von Schweinitz, 2016. "Qual Var Revisited: Good Forecast, Bad Story," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 293-321, November.
See citations under working paper version above.- El-Shagi, Makram & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2012. "Qual VAR Revisited: Good Forecast, Bad Story," IWH Discussion Papers 12/2012, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
- El-Shagi, Makram & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2015.
"Risk and return—Is there an unholy cycle of ratings and yields?,"
Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 49-51.
Cited by:
- El-Shagi, Makram & Schweinitz, Gregor von, 2018.
"The joint dynamics of sovereign ratings and government bond yields,"
Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 198-218.
- von Schweinitz, Gregor & El-Shagi, Makram, 2016. "The Joint Dynamics of Sovereign Ratings and Government Bond Yields," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145894, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- El-Shagi, Makram & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2016. "The joint dynamics of sovereign ratings and government bond yields," Discussion Papers 13/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.
- El-Shagi, Makram & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2015. "The Joint Dynamics of Sovereign Ratings and Government Bond Yields," IWH Discussion Papers 4/2015, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
- El-Shagi, Makram, 2016. "Much ado about nothing: Sovereign ratings and government bond yields in the OECD," IWH Discussion Papers 22/2016, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
- Makram El‐Shagi & Gregor von Schweinitz, 2022. "Why they keep missing: An empirical investigation of sovereign bond ratings and their timing," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 69(2), pages 186-224, May.
- El-Shagi, Makram & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2017. "Why they keep missing: An empirical investigation of rational inattention of rating agencies," IWH Discussion Papers 1/2017, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), revised 2017.
- El-Shagi, Makram & Schweinitz, Gregor von, 2018.
"The joint dynamics of sovereign ratings and government bond yields,"
Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 198-218.
- El-Shagi, M. & Knedlik, T. & von Schweinitz, G., 2013.
"Predicting financial crises: The (statistical) significance of the signals approach,"
Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 76-103.
See citations under working paper version above.
- El-Shagi, Makram & Knedlik, Tobias & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2012. "Predicting Financial Crises: The (Statistical) Significance of the Signals Approach," IWH Discussion Papers 3/2012, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
- Tobias Knedlik & Gregor Von Schweinitz, 2012.
"Macroeconomic Imbalances as Indicators for Debt Crises in Europe,"
Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(5), pages 726-745, September.
See citations under working paper version above.
- Knedlik, Tobias & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2011. "Macroeconomic Imbalances as Indicators for Debt Crises in Europe," IWH Discussion Papers 12/2011, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
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NEP Fields
NEP is an announcement service for new working papers, with a weekly report in each of many fields. This author has had 12 papers announced in NEP. These are the fields, ordered by number of announcements, along with their dates. If the author is listed in the directory of specialists for this field, a link is also provided.- NEP-MAC: Macroeconomics (6) 2018-05-14 2018-06-18 2019-06-10 2019-06-24 2020-12-21 2024-01-29. Author is listed
- NEP-OPM: Open Economy Macroeconomics (3) 2016-07-23 2020-12-21 2023-04-10
- NEP-BAN: Banking (2) 2018-05-14 2024-01-29
- NEP-BIG: Big Data (2) 2019-01-14 2019-01-28
- NEP-CBA: Central Banking (2) 2018-05-14 2023-04-10
- NEP-CMP: Computational Economics (2) 2019-01-14 2019-01-28
- NEP-ECM: Econometrics (2) 2016-02-17 2017-03-12
- NEP-EEC: European Economics (2) 2019-06-10 2019-06-24
- NEP-FDG: Financial Development and Growth (2) 2018-05-14 2024-01-29
- NEP-PBE: Public Economics (2) 2019-06-10 2019-06-24
- NEP-DCM: Discrete Choice Models (1) 2019-01-28
- NEP-HIS: Business, Economic and Financial History (1) 2019-01-14
- NEP-MON: Monetary Economics (1) 2023-04-10
- NEP-PUB: Public Finance (1) 2019-06-24
- NEP-RMG: Risk Management (1) 2016-02-17
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