Northern Ireland: 20 Years On

To speak of what is exceptional about Northern Ireland today requires a provocative sense of irony, for constitutionally it can be argued Northern Ireland has become one of the most stable parts of the United Kingdom. The fact if not the value of the Union has become more deeply entrenched as both the fact and the value of the Union have come more openly into play elsewhere, even in England. Nevertheless, Northern Ireland is not immune from larger political developments and fantastic uncertainties attend consideration of the next twenty years at different levels of analysis. This article considers these uncertainties according to two possible scenarios, one involving a nationalist narrative and the other involving a unionist narrative. The key issues in each scenario and narrative are the constitutional debate in the United Kingdom, especially the referendum on Scottish independence; the future of the European Union and the United Kingdom's relationship to it; and the changing electoral demographic within Northern Ireland. If Northern Ireland's future is inextricably linked to uncertainty this makes it the rule and not the exception today.