Forest Jihad: Assessing the Evidence for “Popular Resistance Terrorism”

Despite increasing concern over the potential threat from “forest jihad,” there has been no systematic attempt to assess whether such attacks are in fact taking place. Drawing on principles from the geospatial profiling of terrorist events, fire-risk prediction data, and information on jihadist convictions, this article offers a thorough review of the evidence to address this question. The available information suggests that so far, jihadists have not attempted to attack North American or European wildlands by means of arson. Despite calls for “popular resistance terrorism” in the jihadist literature, and the apparently low costs associated with this type of attack, jihadists have so far shown little appetite for “forest jihad.”