Repression or Reward: Assessing the Impact of Israeli Counterinsurgency Measures on Diverse Perpetrators of Palestinian Militancy

This study quantitatively assesses the impact of Israeli government actions on Palestinian militant attacks according to different categories: Islamists (Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad), nationalists (Fatah and Palestine Liberation Organization-affiliated groups), and unknown assailants from 1987–2004. Few large-n studies disaggregate among Palestinian factions. This study, however, identifies the scope of factional responses to counterinsurgency measures based on similar constituency pressures and divergent organizational objectives. For example, both indiscriminate repression targeting the wider population and discriminate concessions that reward suspected militants embolden armed actors to increase attacks across the Palestinian spectrum. But Islamists with maximalist goals significantly ramp up attacks to derail peace process-related events and disrupt concessions that benefit Palestinian society. Islamist factions fight to prevent the emergence of a two-state solution and avoid being sidelined by leading nationalist organizations, who have relatively limited objectives and are more likely to strategically reduce attacks to accommodate peace efforts. Additional findings point to other determinants of militant attacks, including religious and national holidays in multi-party armed conflicts. By analyzing diverse sets of armed actors among a broader national movement, this study contributes to research on counterinsurgency, rebel fragmentation, conflict management, and the strategic logics of terrorism.