IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/zewdip/21100.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Data resource profile: The ZEW FMS dataset

Author

Listed:
  • Brückbauer, Frank
  • Schröder, Michael

Abstract

The ZEW Financial Market Survey is a monthly panel survey among financial market experts that was launched in December 1991. The survey focuses on the experts' expectations about international financial markets and macroeconomic developments. We describe the ZEW Financial Market Survey and the resulting research dataset, which 1) is available for free for academic researchers, 2) is large and includes long individual time series (99,001 responses by 2,002 respondents, as of September 2021), and 3) contains rich information on the financial market experts collected over the years and which can be combined with the data on expectations. We give a detailed overview of the academic publications based on ZEW FMS data and provide information on how to access the dataset.

Suggested Citation

  • Brückbauer, Frank & Schröder, Michael, 2021. "Data resource profile: The ZEW FMS dataset," ZEW Discussion Papers 21-100, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:21100
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/248854/1/1785232134.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lux, Thomas, 2009. "Rational forecasts or social opinion dynamics? Identification of interaction effects in a business climate survey," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 638-655, November.
    2. Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2011. "Expected inflation, expected stock returns, and money illusion: What can we learn from survey expectations?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(5), pages 702-719, June.
    3. Thomas Lux, 2009. "Rational Forecasts or Social Opinion Dynamics? Identification of Interaction Effects in a Business Climate Survey," Post-Print hal-00720175, HAL.
    4. Oliver Gloede & Lukas Menkhoff, 2014. "Financial Professionals' Overconfidence: Is It Experience, Function, or Attitude?," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 20(2), pages 236-269, March.
    5. Dick, Christian D. & MacDonald, Ronald & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2015. "Exchange rate forecasts and expected fundamentals," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 235-256.
    6. Malte Rieth & Michele Piffer & Michael Hachula, 2016. "ECB Policies Effective in the Euro Area and Germany," DIW Economic Bulletin, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 6(7), pages 83-91.
    7. Ullrich, Katrin, 2008. "Inflation expectations of experts and ECB communication," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 93-108, March.
    8. Horst Entorf & Anne Gross & Christian Steiner, 2012. "Business Cycle Forecasts and their Implications for High Frequency Stock Market Returns," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(1), pages 1-14, January.
    9. Richard Deaves & Jin Lei & Michael Schröder, 2019. "Forecaster Overconfidence and Market Survey Performance," Journal of Behavioral Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(2), pages 173-194, April.
    10. Rolf Scheufele, 2011. "Are Qualitative Inflation Expectations Useful to Predict Inflation?," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2011(1), pages 29-53.
    11. Szczesny, Andrea & Dornau, Robert & Anders, Ulrich, 1997. "G-Mind - German market indicator: Analyse des Stimmungsindikators und seiner Subkomponenten," ZEW Dokumentationen 97-04, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    12. Dick, Christian D. & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2013. "Exchange rate expectations of chartists and fundamentalists," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 1362-1383.
    13. Carstensen Kai & Wohlrabe Klaus & Ziegler Christina, 2011. "Predictive Ability of Business Cycle Indicators under Test: A Case Study for the Euro Area Industrial Production," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 231(1), pages 82-106, February.
    14. Bekaert, Geert & Hoerova, Marie, 2016. "What do asset prices have to say about risk appetite and uncertainty?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 103-118.
    15. Francesco D’Acunto & Daniel Hoang & Michael Weber, 2017. "The Effect of Unconventional Fiscal Policy on Consumption Expenditure," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 15(01), pages 09-11, April.
    16. Sandra Schmidt & Dieter Nautz, 2012. "Central Bank Communication and the Perception of Monetary Policy by Financial Market Experts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(2‐3), pages 323-340, March.
    17. Krüger Fabian & Pohlmeier Winfried & Mokinski Frieder, 2011. "Combining Survey Forecasts and Time Series Models: The Case of the Euribor," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 231(1), pages 63-81, February.
    18. Mokinski, Frieder, 2016. "Using time-stamped survey responses to measure expectations at a daily frequency," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 271-282.
    19. Michael Schröder & Martin Schüler, 2006. "Auswirkungen des demographischen Wandels auf die Kapitalmärkte," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 7(1), pages 43-66, February.
    20. Michael W. M. Roos, 2005. "TV Weather Forecast or Look through the Window? Expert and Consumer Expectations about Macroeconomic Conditions," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(3), pages 415-437, July.
    21. Michael Schroder & Robert Dornau, 2002. "Do forecasters use monetary models? an empirical analysis of exchange rate expectations," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(8), pages 535-543.
    22. Menkhoff, Lukas & Rebitzky, Rafael R., 2008. "Investor sentiment in the US-dollar: Longer-term, non-linear orientation on PPP," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 455-467, June.
    23. Deaves, Richard & Lüders, Erik & Schröder, Michael, 2010. "The dynamics of overconfidence: Evidence from stock market forecasters," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 402-412, September.
    24. Nolte, Ingmar & Nolte, Sandra & Pohlmeier, Winfried, 2019. "What determines forecasters’ forecasting errors?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 11-24.
    25. Menkhoff, Lukas & Rebitzky, Rafael R. & Schröder, Michael, 2009. "Heterogeneity in exchange rate expectations: Evidence on the chartist-fundamentalist approach," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 70(1-2), pages 241-252, May.
    26. Lukas Menkhoff & Rafael Rebitzky & Michael Schroder, 2008. "Do dollar forecasters believe too much in PPP?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 261-270.
    27. Johannes Leitner & Robert Schmidt, 2006. "A systematic comparison of professional exchange rate forecasts with the judgemental forecasts of novices," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 14(1), pages 87-102, February.
    28. Ronald MacDonald & Lukas Menkhoff & Rafael R. Rebitzky, 2009. "Exchange rate forecasters’ performance: evidence of skill?," Working Papers 2009_13, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    29. Hüfner, Felix P. & Lahl, David, 2003. "What Determines the ZEW Indicator?," ZEW Discussion Papers 03-48, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    30. Markus Glaser & Zwetelina Iliewa & Martin Weber, 2019. "Thinking about Prices versus Thinking about Returns in Financial Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 74(6), pages 2997-3039, December.
    31. Rangvid, Jesper & Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2009. "Higher-order beliefs among professional stock market forecasters: some first empirical tests," ZEW Discussion Papers 09-042, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    32. de Bondt, Gabe J. & Hahn, Elke & Zekaite, Zivile, 2021. "ALICE: Composite leading indicators for euro area inflation cycles," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 687-707.
    33. Friedrich Heinemann & Katrin Ullrich, 2006. "The Impact of EMU on Inflation Expectations," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 175-195, April.
    34. Wolfgang Franz, 2005. "Will the (German) NAIRU Please Stand Up?," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 6(2), pages 131-153, May.
    35. Nolte, Ingmar & Pohlmeier, Winfried, 2007. "Using forecasts of forecasters to forecast," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 15-28.
    36. Dieter Hess & Alexandra Niessen, 2010. "The early news catches the attention: On the relative price impact of similar economic indicators," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(10), pages 909-937, October.
    37. Carlson, John A & Parkin, J Michael, 1975. "Inflation Expectations," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 42(166), pages 123-138, May.
    38. Laudenbach, Christine & Loos, Benjamin & Pirschel, Jenny & Wohlfart, Johannes, 2021. "The trading response of individual investors to local bankruptcies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 928-953.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Brückbauer Frank & Schröder Michael, 2023. "The ZEW Financial Market Survey Panel," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 243(3-4), pages 451-469, June.
    2. Mokinski, Frieder, 2016. "Using time-stamped survey responses to measure expectations at a daily frequency," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 271-282.
    3. Stolzenburg, Ulrich & Lux, Thomas, 2010. "Identification of a core-periphery structure among participants of a business climate survey," Kiel Working Papers 1659, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    4. Oliver Gloede & Lukas Menkhoff, 2014. "Financial Professionals' Overconfidence: Is It Experience, Function, or Attitude?," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 20(2), pages 236-269, March.
    5. Pierdzioch, Christian & Reitz, Stefan & Ruelke, Jan-Christoph, 2014. "Heterogeneous Forecasters and Nonlinear Expectation Formation in the U.S. Stock Market," FinMaP-Working Papers 11, Collaborative EU Project FinMaP - Financial Distortions and Macroeconomic Performance: Expectations, Constraints and Interaction of Agents.
    6. Reitz, Stefan & Rülke, Jan-Christoph & Stadtmann, Georg, 2012. "Nonlinear expectations in speculative markets – Evidence from the ECB survey of professional forecasters," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 1349-1363.
    7. Yamamoto, Ryuichi & Hirata, Hideaki, 2013. "Strategy switching in the Japanese stock market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 2010-2022.
    8. Kunze, Frederik, 2017. "Predicting exchange rates in Asia: New insights on the accuracy of survey forecasts," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 326, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    9. Sandra Schmidt & Dieter Nautz, 2012. "Central Bank Communication and the Perception of Monetary Policy by Financial Market Experts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44, pages 323-340, March.
    10. Breitung, Jörg & Schmeling, Maik, 2013. "Quantifying survey expectations: What’s wrong with the probability approach?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 142-154.
    11. Brückbauer, Frank, 2022. "Do financial market experts know their theory? New evidence from survey data," ZEW Discussion Papers 20-092, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, revised 2022.
    12. Frederik Kunze, 2020. "Predicting exchange rates in Asia: New insights on the accuracy of survey forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 313-333, March.
    13. Jongen, Ron & Verschoor, Willem F.C. & Wolff, Christian C.P. & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2012. "Explaining dispersion in foreign exchange expectations: A heterogeneous agent approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 719-735.
    14. Dick, Christian D. & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2013. "Exchange rate expectations of chartists and fundamentalists," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 1362-1383.
    15. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2018. "A Data-Driven Approach to Construct Survey-Based Indicators by Means of Evolutionary Algorithms," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 135(1), pages 1-14, January.
    16. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2017. "Let the data do the talking: Empirical modelling of survey-based expectations by means of genetic programming," IREA Working Papers 201711, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised May 2017.
    17. Zhenxi Chen, 2020. "Regional financial market bloc and spillover of the financial crisis: A heterogeneous agents approach," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 88(2), pages 262-281, March.
    18. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2019. "Evolutionary Computation for Macroeconomic Forecasting," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 53(2), pages 833-849, February.
    19. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2019. "Empirical modelling of survey-based expectations for the design of economic indicators in five European regions," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 46(2), pages 205-227, May.
    20. Gerunov, Anton, 2013. "Връзка Между Икономическите Очаквания И Стопанската Динамика В Ес-27 [Linkages Between Expectations and Economic Dynamics in EU-27]," MPRA Paper 68795, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    research dataset; financial market experts; financial market expectations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C8 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G4 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:21100. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/zemande.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.