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The welfare effects of trade policy experiments in quantitative trade models: The role of solution methods and baseline calibration

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  • Bekkers, Eddy

Abstract

This paper compares the solution methods and baseline calibration of three different quantitative trade models (QTMs): computable general equilibrium (CGE) models, structural gravity (SG) models and models employing exact hat algebra (EHA). The different solution methods generate identical results on counterfactual experiments if baseline trade shares or baseline trade costs are identical. SG models, calibrating the baseline to gravity-predicted shares, potentially suffer from bias in the predicted welfare effects as a result of misspecification of the gravity equation, whereas the other methods, calibrating to actual shares, potentially suffer from bias as a result of random variation and measurement error of trade flows. Simulations show that predicted shares calibration can generate large biases in predicted welfare effects if the gravity equation does not contain pairwise fixed effects or is estimated without domestic trade flows. Calibration to actual shares and to fitted shares based on gravity estimation including pairwise fixed effects display similar performance in terms of robustness to the different sources of bias.

Suggested Citation

  • Bekkers, Eddy, 2019. "The welfare effects of trade policy experiments in quantitative trade models: The role of solution methods and baseline calibration," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2019-02, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:wtowps:ersd201902
    DOI: 10.30875/bdb5e37d-en
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    Cited by:

    1. Bekkers, Eddy, 2019. "Challenges to the trade system: The potential impact of changes in future trade policy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 489-506.
    2. Bekkers, Eddy & Teh, Robert, 2019. "Potential economic effects of a global trade conflict: Projecting the medium-run effects with the WTO global trade model," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2019-04, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    3. Bekkers, Eddy & Keck, Alexander, 2024. "Tariff spillovers and new rules for multilateral tariff negotiations," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2024-01, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    4. Bekkers, Eddy & Teh, Robert, 2019. "Potential Economic Effects of a Global Trade Conflict: Projecting the medium-run effects with the WTO Global Trade Model," Conference papers 333120, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    quantitative trade models; baseline calibration; free trade agreements; gravity estimation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

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