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Wage bargaining and labor market policy with biased expectations

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  • Balleer, Almut
  • Duernecker, Georg
  • Forstner, Susanne
  • Goensch, Johannes

Abstract

Recent research documents mounting evidence for sizable and persistent biases in individual labor market expectations. This paper incorporates subjective expectations into a general equilibrium labor market model and analytically studies the implications of biased expectations for wage bargaining, vacancy creation, worker flows and labor market policies. Importantly, we find that the specific assumption about the frequency of wage bargaining crucially shapes the propagation mechanism through which expectation biases affect bargained wages and equilibrium outcomes. Moreover, we show that the presence of biased beliefs can qualitatively alter the equilibrium effects of labor market policies. Lastly, when allowing for biased firms' beliefs, we establish that only the difference between firms' and workers' biases matters for the bargained wage but not the size of biases.

Suggested Citation

  • Balleer, Almut & Duernecker, Georg & Forstner, Susanne & Goensch, Johannes, 2024. "Wage bargaining and labor market policy with biased expectations," Ruhr Economic Papers 1069, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:rwirep:287765
    DOI: 10.4419/96973241
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Almut Balleer & Georg Duernecker & Susanne Forstner & Johannes Goensch, 2023. "Biased Expectations and Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from German Survey Data and Implications for the East-West Wage Gap," CESifo Working Paper Series 10336, CESifo.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Subjective expectations; labor markets; search and matching; bargaining; policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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