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Import shocks and voting behavior in Europe revisited

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  • Backes, Annika
  • Müller, Steffen

Abstract

We provide first evidence for the long-run causal impact that Chinese imports to European regions had on voting outcomes and revisit earlier estimates of the short-run impact for a methodological reason. The fringes of the political spectrum gained ground many years after the China shock plateaued and, unlike an earlier study by Colantone and Stanig (2018b), we do not find any robust evidence for a short-run effect on far-right votes. Instead, far-left and populist parties gained in the short run. We identify persistent long-run effects of import shocks on voting. These effects are biased towards populism and, to a lesser extent, to the far-right.

Suggested Citation

  • Backes, Annika & Müller, Steffen, 2024. "Import shocks and voting behavior in Europe revisited," IWH Discussion Papers 8/2024, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:287751
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gaulier, Guillaume & Zignago, Soledad, 2004. "Notes on BACI (analytical database of international trade). 1989-2002 version," MPRA Paper 32401, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Dani Rodrik, 2021. "Why Does Globalization Fuel Populism? Economics, Culture, and the Rise of Right-Wing Populism," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 13(1), pages 133-170, August.
    3. Barth, Erling & Finseraas, Henning & Kjelsrud, Anders & Moene, Kalle, 2023. "Openness and the welfare state: risk and income effects in protection without protectionism," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    globalization; import shocks; populism; voting behavior;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • F6 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization
    • J2 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor

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