IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/imfswp/281063.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Unintended consequences of QE: Real estate prices and financial stability

Author

Listed:
  • Berg, Tobias
  • Haselmann, Rainer
  • Kick, Thomas
  • Schreiber, Sebastian

Abstract

We investigate how unconventional monetary policy, via central banks' purchases of corporate bonds, unfolds in credit-saturated markets. While this policy results in a loosening of credit market conditions as intended by policymakers, we report two unintended side effects. First, the policy impacts the allocation of credit among industries. Affected banks reallocate loans from investment-grade firms active on bond markets almost entirely to real estate asset managers. Other industries do not obtain more loans, particularly real estate developers and construction firms. We document an increase in real estate prices due to this policy, which fuels real estate overvaluation. Second, more loan write-offs arise from lending to these firms, and banks are not compensated for this risk by higher interest rates. We document a drop in bank profitability and, at the same time, a higher reliance on real estate collateral. Our findings suggest that central banks' quantitative easing has substantial adverse effects in credit-saturated economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Berg, Tobias & Haselmann, Rainer & Kick, Thomas & Schreiber, Sebastian, 2023. "Unintended consequences of QE: Real estate prices and financial stability," IMFS Working Paper Series 196, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:imfswp:281063
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/281063/1/1877968587.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joseph G. Altonji & Todd E. Elder & Christopher R. Taber, 2005. "Selection on Observed and Unobserved Variables: Assessing the Effectiveness of Catholic Schools," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 151-184, February.
    2. Fabo, Brian & Jančoková, Martina & Kempf, Elisabeth & Pástor, Ľuboš, 2021. "Fifty shades of QE: Comparing findings of central bankers and academics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 1-20.
    3. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2011. "The Effects of Quantitative Easing on Interest Rates: Channels and Implications for Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 42(2 (Fall)), pages 215-287.
    4. Kilian Huber, 2018. "Disentangling the Effects of a Banking Crisis: Evidence from German Firms and Counties," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(3), pages 868-898, March.
    5. Florian Heider & Farzad Saidi & Glenn Schepens, 2019. "Life below Zero: Bank Lending under Negative Policy Rates," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(10), pages 3728-3761.
    6. Óscar Arce & Ricardo Gimeno & Sergio Mayordomo, 2018. "The effects of the Eurosystem’s corporate sector purchase programme on Spanish companies," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue MAR.
    7. Ernest Liu & Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2022. "Low Interest Rates, Market Power, and Productivity Growth," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(1), pages 193-221, January.
    8. Rossi, Stefania P.S. & Schwaiger, Markus S. & Winkler, Gerhard, 2009. "How loan portfolio diversification affects risk, efficiency and capitalization: A managerial behavior model for Austrian banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(12), pages 2218-2226, December.
    9. Viral V. Acharya & Iftekhar Hasan & Anthony Saunders, 2006. "Should Banks Be Diversified? Evidence from Individual Bank Loan Portfolios," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(3), pages 1355-1412, May.
    10. Asim Ijaz Khwaja & Atif Mian, 2008. "Tracing the Impact of Bank Liquidity Shocks: Evidence from an Emerging Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1413-1442, September.
    11. Joseph Abadi & Markus Brunnermeier & Yann Koby, 2023. "The Reversal Interest Rate," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(8), pages 2084-2120, August.
    12. Markus Behn & Rainer Haselmann & Vikrant Vig, 2022. "The Limits of Model‐Based Regulation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(3), pages 1635-1684, June.
    13. Viral V Acharya & Tim Eisert & Christian Eufinger & Christian Hirsch, 2019. "Whatever It Takes: The Real Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(9), pages 3366-3411.
    14. Matteo Iacoviello, 2005. "House Prices, Borrowing Constraints, and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 739-764, June.
    15. Philippe Aghion & Patrick Bolton, 1992. "An Incomplete Contracts Approach to Financial Contracting," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 59(3), pages 473-494.
    16. Kindermann, Fabian & Le Blanc, Julia & Piazzesi, Monika & Schneider, Martin, 2021. "Learning about Housing Cost: Survey Evidence from the German House Price Boom," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242386, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    17. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 2003. "Is There a Bubble in the Housing Market?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2), pages 299-362.
    18. Marianne Bertrand & Esther Duflo & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2004. "How Much Should We Trust Differences-In-Differences Estimates?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(1), pages 249-275.
    19. Indraneel Chakraborty & Itay Goldstein & Andrew MacKinlay, 2018. "Housing Price Booms and Crowding-Out Effects in Bank Lending," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(7), pages 2806-2853.
    20. Charles Himmelberg & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2005. "Assessing High House Prices: Bubbles, Fundamentals and Misperceptions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 67-92, Fall.
    21. Lin William Cong & Haoyu Gao & Jacopo Ponticelli & Xiaoguang Yang, 2019. "Credit Allocation Under Economic Stimulus: Evidence from China," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(9), pages 3412-3460.
    22. Claudio Borio & Leonardo Gambacorta & Boris Hofmann, 2017. "The influence of monetary policy on bank profitability," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(1), pages 48-63, March.
    23. De Santis, Roberto A. & Geis, André & Juskaite, Aiste & Cruz, Lia Vaz, 2018. "The impact of the corporate sector purchase programme on corporate bond markets and the financing of euro area non-financial corporations," Economic Bulletin Articles, European Central Bank, vol. 3.
    24. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2011. "The Effects of Quantitative Easing on Interest Rates: Channels and Implications for Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 43(2 (Fall)), pages 215-287.
    25. Grosse-Rueschkamp, Benjamin & Steffen, Sascha & Streitz, Daniel, 2019. "A capital structure channel of monetary policy," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(2), pages 357-378.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Berg, Tobias & Haselmann, Rainer & Kick, Thomas & Schreiber, Sebastian, 2022. "Unintended side effects of unconventional monetary policy," LawFin Working Paper Series 27, Goethe University, Center for Advanced Studies on the Foundations of Law and Finance (LawFin).
    2. Albertazzi, Ugo & Barbiero, Francesca & Marqués-Ibáñez, David & Popov, Alexander & Rodriguez d’Acri, Costanza & Vlassopoulos, Thomas, 2020. "Monetary policy and bank stability: the analytical toolbox reviewed," Working Paper Series 2377, European Central Bank.
    3. Grosse-Rueschkamp, Benjamin & Steffen, Sascha & Streitz, Daniel, 2019. "A capital structure channel of monetary policy," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(2), pages 357-378.
    4. De Santis, Roberto A. & Zaghini, Andrea, 2021. "Unconventional monetary policy and corporate bond issuance," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    5. Christian Bittner & Alexander Rodnyansky & Farzad Saidi & Yannick Timmer, 2021. "Mixing QE and Interest Rate Policies at the Effective Lower Bound: Micro Evidence from the Euro Area," CESifo Working Paper Series 9363, CESifo.
    6. Bottero, Margherita & Minoiu, Camelia & Peydró, José-Luis & Polo, Andrea & Presbitero, Andrea F. & Sette, Enrico, 2022. "Expansionary yet different: Credit supply and real effects of negative interest rate policy," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 754-778.
    7. Wang, Ling, 2023. "Central bank asset purchases, banks’ risky security holdings and profitability: Macro and micro evidence from Japan and the U.S," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 347-364.
    8. Margherita Bottero & Ms. Camelia Minoiu & José-Luis Peydró & Andrea Polo & Mr. Andrea F Presbitero & Enrico Sette, 2019. "Negative Monetary Policy Rates and Portfolio Rebalancing: Evidence from Credit Register Data," IMF Working Papers 2019/044, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Bank for International Settlements, 2019. "Unconventional monetary policy tools: a cross-country analysis," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 63, december.
    10. Cohen, Lior, 2022. "Examining QE’s bang for the Buck: Does Quantitative easing reduce credit and liquidity risks and stimulate real economic activity?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    11. Burietz, Aurore & Picault, Matthieu, 2023. "To lend or not to lend? The ECB as the ‘intermediary of last resort’," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    12. Paludkiewicz, Karol, 2018. "Unconventional monetary policy, bank lending, and security holdings: The yield-induced portfolio rebalancing channel," Discussion Papers 22/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    13. Christian Pfister & Jean-Guillaume Sahuc, 2020. "Unconventional monetary policies: A stock-taking exercise," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 130(2), pages 137-169.
    14. Benjamin Grosse-Rueschkamp & Jörg Rocholl, 2020. "Ursachen und Konsequenzen von Niedrigzinsen [Causes and Consequences of Low Interest Rates]," Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research, Springer, vol. 72(4), pages 401-421, December.
    15. Rostagno, Massimo & Altavilla, Carlo & Carboni, Giacomo & Lemke, Wolfgang & Motto, Roberto & Saint Guilhem, Arthur & Yiangou, Jonathan, 2019. "A tale of two decades: the ECB’s monetary policy at 20," Working Paper Series 2346, European Central Bank.
    16. Dautović, Ernest & Gambacorta, Leonardo & Reghezza, Alessio, 2023. "Supervisory policy stimulus: evidence from the euro area dividend recommendation," Working Paper Series 2796, European Central Bank.
    17. Bittner, Christian & Fecht, Falko & Georg, Co-Pierre, 2021. "Contagious zombies," Discussion Papers 15/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    18. Kirsten Schmidt & Felix Noth & Lena Tonzer, 2022. "A Note of Caution on Quantifying Banks' Recapitalization Effects," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(4), pages 1123-1133, June.
    19. Moser, Christian & Saidi, Farzad & Wirth, Benjamin & Wolter, Stefanie, 2020. "Credit Supply, Firms, and Earnings Inequality," MPRA Paper 100371, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Philippe Andrade & Christophe Cahn & Henri Fraisse & Jean-Stéphane Mésonnier, 2019. "Can the Provision of Long-Term Liquidity Help to Avoid a Credit Crunch? Evidence from the Eurosystem’s LTRO," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 1070-1106.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:imfswp:281063. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/hoffmde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.