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German Economy Summer 2018 - German economy: Temporary slowdown, boom not over yet

Author

Listed:
  • Ademmer, Martin
  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens
  • Fiedler, Salomon
  • Groll, Dominik
  • Hauber, Philipp
  • Jannsen, Nils
  • Kooths, Stefan
  • Potjagailo, Galina
  • Wolters, Maik H.

Abstract

The strong economic upswing in Germany has taken a break. For the current year, we revise our GDP growth forecast down by 0.5 percentage points to 2.0 percent. However, the slowdown in economic activity at the beginning of the year is mainly due to temporary factors. We therefore expect growth to regain momentum during the course of the year. For 2019, we expect German GDP to increase by 2.3 percent. Thus, production continues to increase faster than potential output. With capacity utilization already at very high levels, the German economy will get closer to its limit.

Suggested Citation

  • Ademmer, Martin & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Fiedler, Salomon & Groll, Dominik & Hauber, Philipp & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Potjagailo, Galina & Wolters, Maik H., 2018. "German Economy Summer 2018 - German economy: Temporary slowdown, boom not over yet," Kiel Institute Economic Outlook 44, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkeo:44
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    Cited by:

    1. Romeo-Victor Ionescu & Valentin-Marian Antohi & Monica-Laura Zlati, 2019. "The New German-French Friendship Treaty And The Cohesion’S Utopia," Romanian Journal of Regional Science, Romanian Regional Science Association, vol. 13(2), pages 42-51, DECEMBER.

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    Keywords

    business cycle forecast; stabilization policy; leading indicators; outlook; Forecast error evaluation; consumption; factor model;
    All these keywords.

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