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World Economy Summer 2018 - Reduced world economic momentum

Author

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  • Gern, Klaus-Jürgen
  • Hauber, Philipp
  • Kooths, Stefan
  • Stolzenburg, Ulrich

Abstract

The world economy has lost momentum in the beginning of this year, although partly due to special factors. We have reduced our forecast for global growth in both 2018 and 2019 by 0.2 percentage points. In the advanced economies capacity utilization will continue to increase, supporting an increase in underlying inflation in addition to the temporary impact of higher oil prices on headline inflation. Escalating trade conflicts constitute a major risk for the forecast. Other notable risks are increased political uncertainty in Europe following the elections in Italy and potential disruptions associated with the process of monetary policy normalization, including financial stress in emerging economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Hauber, Philipp & Kooths, Stefan & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2018. "World Economy Summer 2018 - Reduced world economic momentum," Kiel Institute Economic Outlook 43, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkeo:43
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    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/209502/1/kkb_43_2018-q2_world.pdf
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    Keywords

    advanced economies; emerging economies; monetary policy; Japan; Russia; ASEAN;
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