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Wie wahrscheinlich ist eine "Deflationsspirale" im Euroraum? Eine Analyse anhand einer Phillips-Kurve

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  • Wolters, Maik H.

Abstract

Die Inflation im Euroraum gemessen am Harmonisierten Verbraucherpreisindex ist seit Herbst 2011 von 3 Prozent auf aktuell nur noch 0,3 Prozent gefallen. Der Präsident der Europäischen Zentralbank (EZB) Mario Draghi hat in seiner Rede bei der Notenbankkonferenz in Jackson Hole im August vor einer Deflationsspirale gewarnt. Fallende Preise und Löhne würden zu einem realen Anstieg bestehender Schulden führen, woraufhin es zu mehr Insolvenzen kommen würde. Dies würde wiederum die Nachfrage verringern und zu weiter fallenden Preisen führen. Entsprechend hat der EZB-Rat Anfang September die Geldpolitik durch eine Zinssenkung weiter gelockert, um weiter sinkende Inflationsraten zu verhindern und angekündigt, in naher Zukunft mit einem Programm zur Quantitativen Lockerung mit einem nennenswerten Umfang zu beginnen. Wir zeigen basierend auf ökonomischer Theorie, aktuellen Daten und einem historischen Vergleich mit Japan, dass zwar eine Phase niedriger Inflation, aber keine Deflationsspirale zu erwarten ist.

Suggested Citation

  • Wolters, Maik H., 2014. "Wie wahrscheinlich ist eine "Deflationsspirale" im Euroraum? Eine Analyse anhand einer Phillips-Kurve," Kiel Insight 2014.8, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwbox:20148
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    1. Wieland, Volker & Wolters, Maik, 2014. "Is there a threat of self-reinforcing deflation in the euro area? A view through the lens of the Phillips curve," Kiel Policy Brief 79, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Emmanuel De Veirman, 2009. "What Makes the Output–Inflation Trade‐Off Change? The Absence of Accelerating Deflation in Japan," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(6), pages 1117-1140, September.
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