IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/fisisi/s132014.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

GLOMO - Global Mobility Model: Beschreibung und Ergebnisse

Author

Listed:
  • Kühn, André
  • Novinsky, Patrick
  • Schade, Wolfgang

Abstract

The development of both, emerging markets as well as the already establish markets (USA, Japan, Europe), is highly relevant for future success of the export-oriented German automotive industry. This paper describes the so called Global Mobility Model (GLOMO) based on the system dynamics approach, which simulates the future development of car sales by segment and drive technology. The modularized model contains population, income and GDP development in order to describe the framework in the most important markets (USA, Japan, EU, Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa). According to the changes in framework conditions within these countries, worldwide car sales will nearly double up to 2030 (120 Mio. cars a year), with the most dynamic development in the Chinese market. The simulation results also show that - depending on the chosen scenario - a 40 %- share of alternative drive technologies within the worldwide car sales in 2030 seems to be possible.

Suggested Citation

  • Kühn, André & Novinsky, Patrick & Schade, Wolfgang, 2014. "GLOMO - Global Mobility Model: Beschreibung und Ergebnisse," Working Papers "Sustainability and Innovation" S13/2014, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:fisisi:s132014
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/101128/1/795334451.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Romm, Joseph, 2006. "The car and fuel of the future," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(17), pages 2609-2614, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Peng Cheng & Zhe Ouyang & Yang Liu, 0. "The effect of information overload on the intention of consumers to adopt electric vehicles," Transportation, Springer, vol. 0, pages 1-20.
    2. Kristoffersen, Trine Krogh & Capion, Karsten & Meibom, Peter, 2011. "Optimal charging of electric drive vehicles in a market environment," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(5), pages 1940-1948, May.
    3. Chung, Sung Hoon & Kwon, Changhyun, 2015. "Multi-period planning for electric car charging station locations: A case of Korean Expressways," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 242(2), pages 677-687.
    4. Shiau, Ching-Shin Norman & Samaras, Constantine & Hauffe, Richard & Michalek, Jeremy J., 2009. "Impact of battery weight and charging patterns on the economic and environmental benefits of plug-in hybrid vehicles," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2653-2663, July.
    5. Gilbert, Richard & Perl, Anthony, 2007. "Grid-connected vehicles as the core of future land-based transport systems," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 3053-3060, May.
    6. Tsita, Katerina G. & Pilavachi, Petros A., 2012. "Evaluation of alternative fuels for the Greek road transport sector using the analytic hierarchy process," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 677-686.
    7. Zhang, Yong & Yu, Yifeng & Zou, Bai, 2011. "Analyzing public awareness and acceptance of alternative fuel vehicles in China: The case of EV," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 7015-7024.
    8. Hasan-Basri, Bakti & Mohd Mustafa, Muzafarshah & Bakar, Normizan, 2019. "Are Malaysian Consumers Willing to Pay for Hybrid Cars’ Attributes?," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 53(1), pages 121-134.
    9. Shaohua Cui & Hui Zhao & Cuiping Zhang, 2018. "Locating Charging Stations of Various Sizes with Different Numbers of Chargers for Battery Electric Vehicles," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-22, November.
    10. Vedrenne, Michel & Pérez, Javier & Lumbreras, Julio & Rodríguez, María Encarnación, 2014. "Life cycle assessment as a policy-support tool: The case of taxis in the city of Madrid," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 185-197.
    11. S. A. MirHassani & R. Ebrazi, 2013. "A Flexible Reformulation of the Refueling Station Location Problem," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 47(4), pages 617-628, November.
    12. Yıldız, Barış & Arslan, Okan & Karaşan, Oya Ekin, 2016. "A branch and price approach for routing and refueling station location model," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 248(3), pages 815-826.
    13. Jonatan Pinkse & Koen Groot, 2015. "Sustainable Entrepreneurship and Corporate Political Activity: Overcoming Market Barriers in the Clean Energy Sector," Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, , vol. 39(3), pages 633-654, May.
    14. Peng Cheng & Zhe Ouyang & Yang Liu, 2020. "The effect of information overload on the intention of consumers to adopt electric vehicles," Transportation, Springer, vol. 47(5), pages 2067-2086, October.
    15. Ravagnani, Mauro A.S.S. & Thonern, Werner I. & Caballero, Jose A., 2007. "A mathematical model for the composition of Brazilian ethanol shares for exportation to be blended to gasoline," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 5060-5063, October.
    16. DeCicco, John M., 2013. "Factoring the car-climate challenge: Insights and implications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 382-392.
    17. Wei Gu & Haojun Yu & Wei Liu & Junpeng Zhu & Xiaohui Xu, 2013. "Demand Response and Economic Dispatch of Power Systems Considering Large-Scale Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles/Electric Vehicles (PHEVs/EVs): A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 6(9), pages 1-24, August.
    18. Kristián Čulík & Vladimíra Štefancová & Karol Hrudkay & Ján Morgoš, 2021. "Interior Heating and Its Influence on Electric Bus Consumption," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-19, December.
    19. Yap, Wai Kean & Karri, Vishy, 2011. "ANN virtual sensors for emissions prediction and control," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(12), pages 4505-4516.
    20. Bakker, Sjoerd, 2010. "The car industry and the blow-out of the hydrogen hype," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 6540-6544, November.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:fisisi:s132014. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/isfhgde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.