IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/fisisi/s122014.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Modelling market diffusion of electric vehicles with real world driving data: German market and policy options

Author

Listed:
  • Gnann, Till
  • Plötz, Patrick
  • Kühn, André
  • Wietschel, Martin

Abstract

Electric vehicles (EVs) have the potential to reduce green house gas emissions from the transport sector. However, the limited electric range of EVs could impede their market introduction. Still some potential users are willing to pay more for EVs. The combined effect of these and other influencing factors as well as the resulting future market evolution are unclear. Here, we study the market evolution of EVs in Germany until 2020. Our results reveal a great deal of uncertainty in the market evolution of EVs due to external conditions and the users' willingness to pay. We find the future share of EVs in German passenger car stock to range from 0.4% to almost 3% by 2020. Energy prices have a large impact on EV market evolution as a 25% increase in fuel prices would double the number of EVs in stock by 2020 compared to a reference scenario. The high uncertainty of the market evolution implies that policies to foster market diffusion of EVs should be dynamically adaptable to react to changing framework conditions. We find a special depreciation allowance for commercial vehicles and a subsidy of 1,000 Euro as the most effective and efficient monetary policy options.

Suggested Citation

  • Gnann, Till & Plötz, Patrick & Kühn, André & Wietschel, Martin, 2014. "Modelling market diffusion of electric vehicles with real world driving data: German market and policy options," Working Papers "Sustainability and Innovation" S12/2014, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:fisisi:s122014
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/100032/1/791640302.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thiel, Christian & Perujo, Adolfo & Mercier, Arnaud, 2010. "Cost and CO2 aspects of future vehicle options in Europe under new energy policy scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 7142-7151, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Cen & Schmöcker, Jan-Dirk & Kuwahara, Masahiro & Nakamura, Toshiyuki & Uno, Nobuhiro, 2020. "A diffusion model for estimating adoption patterns of a one-way carsharing system in its initial years," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 135-150.
    2. Gnann, Till & Stephens, Thomas S. & Lin, Zhenhong & Plötz, Patrick & Liu, Changzheng & Brokate, Jens, 2018. "What drives the market for plug-in electric vehicles? - A review of international PEV market diffusion models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 158-164.
    3. Globisch, Joachim & Plötz, Patrick & Dütschke, Elisabeth & Wietschel, Martin, 2019. "Consumer preferences for public charging infrastructure for electric vehicles," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 54-63.
    4. Van, Tien Linh Cao & Barthelmes, Lukas & Gnann, Till & Speth, Daniel & Kagerbauer, Martin, 2021. "Addressing the gaps in market diffusion modeling of electrical vehicles: A case study from Germany for the integration of environmental policy measures," Working Papers "Sustainability and Innovation" S05/2021, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI).
    5. Xiong, Siqin & Yuan, Yi & Yao, Jia & Bai, Bo & Ma, Xiaoming, 2023. "Exploring consumer preferences for electric vehicles based on the random coefficient logit model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PA).
    6. Gnann, Till & Speth, Daniel & Plötz, Patrick & Wietschel, Martin & Krail, Michael, 2022. "Markthochlaufszenarien für Elektrofahrzeuge: Rückblick und Ausblick bis 2030," Working Papers "Sustainability and Innovation" S05/2022, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI).
    7. Ensslen, Axel & Gnann, Till & Jochem, Patrick & Plötz, Patrick & Dütschke, Elisabeth & Fichtner, Wolf, 2020. "Can product service systems support electric vehicle adoption?," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 343-359.
    8. Hu, Jia-Wei & Javaid, Aneeque & Creutzig, Felix, 2021. "Leverage points for accelerating adoption of shared electric cars: Perceived benefits and environmental impact of NEVs," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    9. Xie, Fei & Lin, Zhenhong, 2017. "Market-driven automotive industry compliance with fuel economy and greenhouse gas standards: Analysis based on consumer choice," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 299-311.
    10. Huber, Julian & Dann, David & Weinhardt, Christof, 2020. "Probabilistic forecasts of time and energy flexibility in battery electric vehicle charging," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    11. Plötz, Patrick & Schneider, Uta & Globisch, Joachim & Dütschke, Elisabeth, 2014. "Who will buy electric vehicles? Identifying early adopters in Germany," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 96-109.
    12. Scheller, Fabian & Johanning, Simon & Bruckner, Thomas, 2018. "IRPsim: A techno-socio-economic energy system model vision for business strategy assessment at municipal level," Contributions of the Institute for Infrastructure and Resources Management 02/2018, University of Leipzig, Institute for Infrastructure and Resources Management.
    13. Plötz, Patrick & Jakobsson, Niklas & Sprei, Frances, 2017. "On the distribution of individual daily driving distances," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 213-227.
    14. Gnann, T. & Speth, D. & Seddig, K. & Stich, M. & Schade, W. & Gómez Vilchez, J.J., 2022. "How to integrate real-world user behavior into models of the market diffusion of alternative fuels in passenger cars - An in-depth comparison of three models for Germany," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    15. Jochem, Patrick & Babrowski, Sonja & Fichtner, Wolf, 2015. "Assessing CO2 emissions of electric vehicles in Germany in 2030," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 68-83.
    16. Ranjit R. Desai & Eric Hittinger & Eric Williams, 2022. "Interaction of Consumer Heterogeneity and Technological Progress in the US Electric Vehicle Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-25, June.
    17. Plötz, Patrick & Gnann, Till & Jochem, Patrick & Yilmaz, Hasan Ümitcan & Kaschub, Thomas, 2019. "Impact of electric trucks powered by overhead lines on the European electricity system and CO2 emissions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 32-40.
    18. Sykes, Maxwell & Axsen, Jonn, 2017. "No free ride to zero-emissions: Simulating a region's need to implement its own zero-emissions vehicle (ZEV) mandate to achieve 2050 GHG targets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 447-460.
    19. Romano Alberto Acri & Silvia Barone & Paolo Cambula & Valter Cecchini & Maria Carmen Falvo & Jacopo Lepore & Matteo Manganelli & Federico Santi, 2021. "Forecast of the Demand for Electric Mobility for Rome–Fiumicino International Airport," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-19, August.
    20. Viri, Riku & Mäkinen, Johanna & Liimatainen, Heikki, 2021. "Modelling car fleet renewal in Finland: A model and development speed-based scenarios," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 63-79.
    21. Schwab, Julia & Sölch, Christian & Zöttl, Gregor, 2022. "Electric Vehicle Cost in 2035: The impact of market penetration and charging strategies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    22. Scheller, Fabian & Johanning, Simon & Bruckner, Thomas, 2019. "A review of designing empirically grounded agent-based models of innovation diffusion: Development process, conceptual foundation and research agenda," Contributions of the Institute for Infrastructure and Resources Management 01/2019, University of Leipzig, Institute for Infrastructure and Resources Management.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kley, Fabian & Lerch, Christian & Dallinger, David, 2011. "New business models for electric cars--A holistic approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 3392-3403, June.
    2. Li, Zhe & Ouyang, Minggao, 2011. "A win-win marginal rent analysis for operator and consumer under battery leasing mode in China electric vehicle market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 3222-3237, June.
    3. Varga, Bogdan Ovidiu, 2013. "Electric vehicles, primary energy sources and CO2 emissions: Romanian case study," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 61-70.
    4. Haugen, Molly J. & Paoli, Leonardo & Cullen, Jonathan & Cebon, David & Boies, Adam M., 2021. "A fork in the road: Which energy pathway offers the greatest energy efficiency and CO2 reduction potential for low-carbon vehicles?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    5. Zhongqi Deng & Peng Tian, 2020. "Are China's subsidies for electric vehicles effective?," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(4), pages 475-489, June.
    6. González Palencia, Juan C. & Furubayashi, Takaaki & Nakata, Toshihiko, 2014. "Techno-economic assessment of lightweight and zero emission vehicles deployment in the passenger car fleet of developing countries," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 129-142.
    7. Wu, Geng & Inderbitzin, Alessandro & Bening, Catharina, 2015. "Total cost of ownership of electric vehicles compared to conventional vehicles: A probabilistic analysis and projection across market segments," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 196-214.
    8. Weixing Liu & Hongtao Yi, 2020. "What Affects the Diffusion of New Energy Vehicles Financial Subsidy Policy? Evidence from Chinese Cities," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(3), pages 1-15, January.
    9. Rusich, Andrea & Danielis, Romeo, 2013. "The private and social monetary costs and the energy consumption of a car. An estimate for seven cars with different vehicle technologies on sale in Italy," Working Papers 1301, SIET Società Italiana di Economia dei Trasporti e della Logistica, revised 2013.
    10. Yong, Jia Ying & Ramachandaramurthy, Vigna K. & Tan, Kang Miao & Mithulananthan, N., 2015. "A review on the state-of-the-art technologies of electric vehicle, its impacts and prospects," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 365-385.
    11. Kouridis, Ch & Vlachokostas, Ch, 2022. "Towards decarbonizing road transport: Environmental and social benefit of vehicle fleet electrification in urban areas of Greece," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    12. Kloess, Maximilian & Müller, Andreas, 2011. "Simulating the impact of policy, energy prices and technological progress on the passenger car fleet in Austria--A model based analysis 2010-2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5045-5062, September.
    13. Gnann, Till & Plötz, Patrick & Kühn, André & Wietschel, Martin, 2015. "Modelling market diffusion of electric vehicles with real world driving data – German market and policy options," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 95-112.
    14. Ajanovic, Amela & Haas, Reinhard, 2016. "Dissemination of electric vehicles in urban areas: Major factors for success," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(P2), pages 1451-1458.
    15. Tovar Reaños, Miguel A. & Sommerfeld, Katrin, 2018. "Fuel for inequality: Distributional effects of environmental reforms on private transport," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 28-43.
    16. Lin, Boqiang & Tan, Ruipeng, 2017. "Estimation of the environmental values of electric vehicles in Chinese cities," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 221-229.
    17. Albert, Gila & Glanzer, Yaniv, 2014. "The usefulness of pollution examinations of on-road vehicles—The case of Jerusalem," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 100-104.
    18. Matteo Giacomo Prina & Giampaolo Manzolini & David Moser & Roberto Vaccaro & Wolfram Sparber, 2020. "Multi-Objective Optimization Model EPLANopt for Energy Transition Analysis and Comparison with Climate-Change Scenarios," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-22, June.
    19. Samuel Pelletier & Ola Jabali & Gilbert Laporte, 2016. "50th Anniversary Invited Article—Goods Distribution with Electric Vehicles: Review and Research Perspectives," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(1), pages 3-22, February.
    20. Zhao, Dan & Ji, Shou-feng & Wang, He-ping & Jiang, Li-wen, 2021. "How do government subsidies promote new energy vehicle diffusion in the complex network context? A three-stage evolutionary game model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:fisisi:s122014. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/isfhgde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.