IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/bubdp2/7449.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Real estate markets and bank distress

Author

Listed:
  • Koetter, Michael
  • Poghosyan, Tigran

Abstract

We investigate the relationship between real estate markets and bank distress among German universal and specialized mortgage banks between 1995 and 2004. Higher house prices increase the value of collateral, which reduces the probability of bank distress (PDs). But higher prices at given rents may also indicate excessive expectations regarding the present value of real estate assets, which can increase PDs. Increasing price-to-rent ratios are positively related to PDs and larger real estate exposures amplify this effect. Rising real estate price levels alone reduce bank PDs, but only for banks with large real estate market exposure. This suggests a positive, but relatively small 'collateral' effect for banks with more expertise in specialized mortgage lending. Likewise, lower price-to-rent ratios are estimated to reduce the riskiness of banks. The multilevel logit model used here further shows that real estate markets are regionally segmented and location-specific effects contribute significantly to predicted bank PDs.

Suggested Citation

  • Koetter, Michael & Poghosyan, Tigran, 2008. "Real estate markets and bank distress," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2008,18, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp2:7449
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/27670/1/200818dkp_b_.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Haynes, Michelle & Thompson, Steve, 1999. "The productivity effects of bank mergers: Evidence from the UK building societies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 825-846, May.
    2. Jim Clayton, 1996. "Rational Expectations, Market Fundamentals and Housing Price Volatility," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 24(4), pages 441-470, December.
    3. Holly, Sean & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Yamagata, Takashi, 2010. "A spatio-temporal model of house prices in the USA," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(1), pages 160-173, September.
    4. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1996. "The Financial Accelerator and the Flight to Quality," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 1-15, February.
    5. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    6. Higgins, Matthew & Osler, Carol, 1997. "Asset Market Hangovers and Economic Growth: The OECD during 1984-93," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 13(3), pages 110-134, Autumn.
    7. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    8. Robert J. Shiller & Karl E. Case & Allan N. Weiss, 1995. "Mortgage Default Risk and Real Estate Prices: The Use of Index-Based Futures and Options in Real Estate," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1098, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    9. Boris Hofmann, 2004. "The Determinants of Bank Credit in Industrialized Countries: Do Property Prices Matter?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 203-234, July.
    10. Bos, J.W.B. & Koetter, M. & Kolari, J.W. & Kool, C.J.M., 2009. "Effects of heterogeneity on bank efficiency scores," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 195(1), pages 251-261, May.
    11. Koetter, M. & Bos, J.W.B. & Heid, F. & Kolari, J.W. & Kool, C.J.M. & Porath, D., 2007. "Accounting for distress in bank mergers," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(10), pages 3200-3217, October.
    12. Gan, Jie, 2004. "Banking market structure and financial stability: Evidence from the Texas real estate crisis in the 1980s," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(3), pages 567-601, September.
    13. Aoki, Kosuke & Proudman, James & Vlieghe, Gertjan, 2004. "House prices, consumption, and monetary policy: a financial accelerator approach," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 414-435, October.
    14. Harrison, Patricia & Ragas, Wade R., 1995. "Financial variables contributing to savings and loan failures from 1980-1989," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 197-210.
    15. Kick, Thomas & Koetter, Michael, 2007. "Slippery slopes of stress: Ordered failure events in German banking," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 132-148, July.
    16. Koetter, Michael & Poghosyan, Tigran, 2008. "The implications of latent technology regimes for competition and efficiency in banking," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2008,15, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    17. Jonathan McCarthy & Richard Peach, 2004. "Are home prices the next \\"bubble\\"?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Dec, pages 1-17.
    18. David C. Wheelock & Paul W. Wilson, 2000. "Why do Banks Disappear? The Determinants of U.S. Bank Failures and Acquisitions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(1), pages 127-138, February.
    19. Allen, Franklin & Gale, Douglas, 2000. "Bubbles and Crises," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(460), pages 236-255, January.
    20. Ayuso, Juan & Restoy, Fernando, 2006. "House prices and rents: An equilibrium asset pricing approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 371-388, June.
    21. Charles W. Calomiris & Joseph R. Mason, 2003. "Fundamentals, Panics, and Bank Distress During the Depression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(5), pages 1615-1647, December.
    22. Richard J. Herring & Susan Wachter, 1999. "Real Estate Booms and Banking Busts: An International Perspective," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 99-27, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
    23. Guo, Lin, 1999. "When and why did FSLIC resolve insolvent thrifts?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 955-990, June.
    24. Greene, William, 2005. "Reconsidering heterogeneity in panel data estimators of the stochastic frontier model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 126(2), pages 269-303, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jahn, Nadya & Kick, Thomas, 2012. "Early warning indicators for the German banking system: A macroprudential analysis," Discussion Papers 27/2012, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    2. Sampagnaro, Gabriele & Battaglia, Francesca, 2010. "Reliability and Heterogeneity of Real Estate Indexes and their Impact on the Predictability of Returns," MPRA Paper 23378, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Dumitriu, Ramona & Stefanescu, Răzvan, 2013. "Decizii strategice ale politicii monetare [Strategic decisions of the Monetary Policy]," MPRA Paper 51242, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Nov 2013.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Koetter, Michael & Poghosyan, Tigran, 2010. "Real estate prices and bank stability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1129-1138, June.
    2. Davis, E. Philip & Zhu, Haibin, 2011. "Bank lending and commercial property cycles: Some cross-country evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 1-21, February.
    3. Koetter, Michael & Poghosyan, Tigran, 2008. "The implications of latent technology regimes for competition and efficiency in banking," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2008,15, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    4. Luc Laeven, 2011. "Banking Crises: A Review," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 17-40, December.
    5. Koetter Michael, 2008. "An Assessment of Bank Merger Success in Germany," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 9(2), pages 232-264, May.
    6. Addison-Smyth, Diarmaid & McQuinn, Kieran & O'Reilly, Gerard, 2009. "Modelling Credit in the Irish Mortgage Market," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 40(4), pages 371-392.
    7. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1999. "Monetary policy and asset price volatility," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 77-128.
    8. Michael Koetter & Mr. Tigran Poghosyan & Thomas Kick, 2010. "Recovery Determinants of Distressed Banks: Regulators, Market Discipline, or the Environment?," IMF Working Papers 2010/027, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Fungáčová, Zuzana & Turk-Ariss, Rima & Weill, Laurent, 2013. "Does excessive liquidity creation trigger bank failures?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 2/2013, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    10. Chen, Nan-Kuang, 2001. "Asset price fluctuations in Taiwan: evidence from stock and real estate prices 1973 to 1992," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 215-232.
    11. Mr. Abdelhak S Senhadji & Mr. Charles Collyns, 2002. "Lending Booms, Real Estate Bubbles and the Asian Crisis," IMF Working Papers 2002/020, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Goldstein, Itay & Razin, Assaf, 2015. "Three Branches of Theories of Financial Crises," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 10(2), pages 113-180, 30.
    13. Eloisa T Glindro & Tientip Subhanij & Jessica Szeto & Haibin Zhu, 2008. "Determinants of house prices in nine Asia-Pacific economies," BIS Working Papers 263, Bank for International Settlements.
    14. Fungáčová, Zuzana & Turk-Ariss, Rima & Weill, Laurent, 2013. "Does excessive liquidity creation trigger bank failures?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 2/2013, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    15. Eloisa T Glindro & Tientip Subhanij & Jessica Szeto & Haibin Zhu, 2008. "Are Asia-Pacific Housing Prices Too High For Comfort?," Working Papers 2008-11, Monetary Policy Group, Bank of Thailand.
    16. Goetz von Peter, 2004. "Asset Prices and Banking Distress: A Macroeconomic Approach," Finance 0411034, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Eloisa T. Glindro & Tientip Subhanij & Jessica Szeto & Haibin Zhu, 2011. "Determinants of House Prices in Nine Asia-Pacific Economies," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(3), pages 163-204, September.
    18. Zuzana Fungacova & Ms. Rima A Turk & Laurent Weill, 2015. "High Liquidity Creation and Bank Failures: Do They Behave Differently?," IMF Working Papers 2015/103, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Loayza,Norman V. & Ouazad,Amine & Ranciere,Romain, 2017. "Financial development, growth, and crisis: is there a trade-off ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8237, The World Bank.
    20. Allen, Franklin & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2011. "Asset Prices, Financial Stability and Monetary Policy," Working Papers 11-39, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real estate; distress; universal vs. specialized banks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • G3 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp2:7449. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dbbgvde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.