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A Cross Section of Equity Returns: The No-Arbitrage Test

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  • Pongrapeeporn Abhakorn
  • Peter N. Smith
  • Michael R. Wickens

Abstract

We propose a new test based on the no-arbitrage condition that compares cross-sectional variation in equity returns to the cross-sectional variation in their conditional covariance with the discount factors. Using the multivariate generalized heteroskedasticity in mean model (MGM) to estimate the 25 portfolios formed on size and book-to-market ratio, together with each with its own arbitrage condition, we find that the no-arbitrage test rejects the consumption-based capital asset pricing model (C-CAPM). Although the conditional covariances of returns with consumption exhibit negative variation across size, they do not vary across the book-to-market ratio. Thus, the C-CAPM can capture size effect, but not value effect. Allowing the coefficients on the consumption covariances to be different largely improves the fit of the C-CAPM, however. The value effect appears to be associated with book-to-market ratio as well as size. Book-to-market ratio separately does not generate information about average returns that cannot be explained by the C-CAPM.

Suggested Citation

  • Pongrapeeporn Abhakorn & Peter N. Smith & Michael R. Wickens, "undated". "A Cross Section of Equity Returns: The No-Arbitrage Test," Discussion Papers 11/23, Department of Economics, University of York.
    • Handle: RePEc:yor:yorken:11/23
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Risk Premium; Equity Return; Stochastic Discount Factor; No-arbitrage Condition;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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