IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wrk/warwec/1387.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Graduate Earnings Premia in the UK : Decline and Fall?

Author

Listed:
  • Boero, Gianna

    (Department of Economics, University of Warwick)

  • Nathwani, Tej

    (Higher Education Statistics Agency)

  • Naylor, Robin

    (Department of Economics, University of Warwick)

  • Smith, Jeremy

    (Department of Economics, University of Warwick)

Abstract

A long-standing puzzle in the economics of education concerns the observed constancy of the average earnings premium for a degree despite a prolonged period of substantial growth in the share of graduates in the working population in the UK. Focusing on birth cohorts between 1970 and 1990, we produce evidence of a recent decline in the earnings premium for graduates over non-graduates by age 26. For those born in 1990, we estimate an average graduate earnings premium of 10%, contrasting with an estimate of 17% for the 1970 birth cohort. We also find a substantial increase in dispersion around the average premium according to class of degree awarded. Combined with a falling average, this has left the earnings of 1990-born graduates awarded lower degree classes only 3% above that of non-graduates. Among the 1970-born cohort, the equivalent earnings premium was 14%. We suggest that this precipitous fall is consistent with a ‘double-scarring’ effect associated with the combination of increased higher education participation and a rise in the proportion of graduates awarded an upper honours degree over the span of the two cohorts.

Suggested Citation

  • Boero, Gianna & Nathwani, Tej & Naylor, Robin & Smith, Jeremy, 2021. "Graduate Earnings Premia in the UK : Decline and Fall?," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1387, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:wrk:warwec:1387
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/workingpapers/2021/twerp_1387_-_naylor.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Britton, Jack & van der Erve, Laura & Belfield, Chris & Vignoles, Anna & Dickson, Matt & Zhu, Yu & Walker, Ian & Dearden, Lorraine & Sibieta, Luke & Buscha, Franz, 2022. "How much does degree choice matter?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    2. Battistin, Erich & De Nadai, Michele & Sianesi, Barbara, 2014. "Misreported schooling, multiple measures and returns to educational qualifications," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 181(2), pages 136-150.
    3. G. M.P. Swann, 2009. "The Economics of Innovation," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 13211.
    4. Ireland, Norman & Naylor, Robin A. & Smith, Jeremy & Telhaj, Shqiponja, 2009. "Educational returns, ability composition and cohort effects: theory and evidence for cohorts of early-career UK graduates," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 28608, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Ashworth, Jared & Ransom, Tyler, 2019. "Has the college wage premium continued to rise? Evidence from multiple U.S. surveys," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 149-154.
    6. Richard Blundell & Lorraine Dearden & Barbara Sianesi, 2005. "Evaluating the effect of education on earnings: models, methods and results from the National Child Development Survey," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 168(3), pages 473-512, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Battistin, Erich & Chesher, Andrew, 2014. "Treatment effect estimation with covariate measurement error," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(2), pages 707-715.
    2. Freier, Ronny & Schumann, Mathias & Siedler, Thomas, 2015. "The earnings returns to graduating with honors — Evidence from law graduates," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 39-50.
    3. Frank R. Lichtenberg, 2014. "Has Medical Innovation Reduced Cancer Mortality?," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 60(1), pages 135-177.
    4. Cowling, Marc & Ughetto, Elisa & Lee, Neil, 2018. "The innovation debt penalty: Cost of debt, loan default, and the effects of a public loan guarantee on high-tech firms," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 166-176.
    5. Alhassan Abdul-Wakeel Karakara & Evans Osabuohien, 2020. "ICT adoption, competition and innovation of informal firms in West Africa: a comparative study of Ghana and Nigeria," Journal of Enterprising Communities: People and Places in the Global Economy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 14(3), pages 397-414, June.
    6. ManYing Kang & Marcel Ausloos, 2017. "An Inverse Problem Study: Credit Risk Ratings as a Determinant of Corporate Governance and Capital Structure in Emerging Markets: Evidence from Chinese Listed Companies," Economies, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-23, November.
    7. Gunther Bensch & Jörg Peters, 2013. "Alleviating Deforestation Pressures? Impacts of Improved Stove Dissemination on Charcoal Consumption in Urban Senegal," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 89(4), pages 676-698.
    8. Vitaliy Roud & Thomas Wolfgang Thurner, 2018. "The Influence of State‐Ownership on Eco‐Innovations in Russian Manufacturing Firms," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 22(5), pages 1213-1227, October.
    9. Laura Barbieri & Daniela Bragoli & Flavia Cortelezzi & Giovanni Marseguerra, 2015. "Public Support to Innovation Strategies," DISCE - Quaderni del Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali dises1509, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    10. Massimo Colombo & Annalisa Croce & Samuele Murtinu, 2014. "Ownership structure, horizontal agency costs and the performance of high-tech entrepreneurial firms," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 42(2), pages 265-282, February.
    11. Olusola O. Ololade & Palesa P. Rametse, 2018. "Determining factors that enable managers to implement an environmental management system for sustainable construction: A case study in Johannesburg," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(8), pages 1720-1732, December.
    12. Leonard F.S. Wang & Arijit Mukherjee, 2014. "Patent Protection, Innovation and Technology Licensing," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(3-4), pages 245-254, December.
    13. Schankerman, Mark & Schuett, Florian, 2016. "Screening for Patent Quality," CEPR Discussion Papers 11688, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Christoph P. Kiefer & Pablo Del Río González & Javier Carrillo‐Hermosilla, 2019. "Drivers and barriers of eco‐innovation types for sustainable transitions: A quantitative perspective," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(1), pages 155-172, January.
    15. Richard Harris & John Moffat, 2011. "R&D, Innovation and Exporting," SERC Discussion Papers 0073, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    16. Wipo, 2011. "World Intellectual Property Report 2011- The Changing Face of Innovation," WIPO Economics & Statistics Series, World Intellectual Property Organization - Economics and Statistics Division, number 2011:944, June.
    17. Ralf Becker & Maggy Fostier, 2015. "Evaluating non-compulsory educational interventions - the case of peer assisted study groups," Economics Discussion Paper Series 1509, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    18. Christian Rammer & Gastón P Fernández & Dirk Czarnitzki, 2021. "Artificial Intelligence and Industrial Innovation: Evidence from Firm-Level Data," Working Papers of Department of Economics, Leuven 674605, KU Leuven, Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB), Department of Economics, Leuven.
    19. Adu-Gyamfi, Richard & Kuada, John & Asongu, Simplice, 2018. "An Integrative Framework for Entrepreneurship Research in Africa," MPRA Paper 89133, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Davide Consoli & Pier Paolo Patrucco, 2011. "Complexity and the Coordination of Technological Knowledge: The Case of Innovation Platforms," Chapters, in: Handbook on the Economic Complexity of Technological Change, chapter 8 Edward Elgar Publishing.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wrk:warwec:1387. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Margaret Nash (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dewaruk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.