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Exploring the Carbon Kuznets Hypothesis

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Author Info
Georg Muller-Furstenberger (University of Bern)
Martin Wagner (University of Bern)
Benito Muller (Oxford Institute for Energy Studies)

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Abstract

The Carbon Kuznets hypothesis conjectures an inverse U{shape relation between GDP and carbon dioxide emissions. We investigate a number of empirical problems with this hypothesis by way of both econometric analysis and CGE modelling. The econometric analysis takes into account the possibility of unit root non{stationary regressors. On a panel of 107 countries covering the years from 1986 to 1998 we ¯nd evidence for unit root non{stationarity in log GDP and log emissions. Our discussion therefore focusses of potential pitfalls in estimating the Carbon Kuznets curve in the context of non{stationary panels context. We conclude that current practice in the literature fails to take these potential problems adequately into account. The second conceptual problem considered in the paper is the question of how to inter- pret an observed inverse U{shaped relationship. With the help of a small GCE model, we illustrate the danger of using observed GDP{emission patterns directly as a policy guide. Our model economy, where decarbonization is exogenous, demonstrates in particular that a carbon policy relating to income levels may not be appropriate even in the face of an observed inverse U{pattern between income and emissions.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Others with number 0506009.

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Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: 10 Jun 2005
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpot:0506009

Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 23
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Related research
Keywords: Carbon Kuznets curve; non{stationary panel; regressions with integrated variables; CGE modelling;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
Q20 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - General
C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Hypothesis Testing
C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Estimation

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Peter C.B. Phillips & Joon Y. Park, 1998. "Asymptotics for Nonlinear Transformations of Integrated Time Series," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1182, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Park, Joon Y & Phillips, Peter C B, 2001. "Nonlinear Regressions with Integrated Time Series," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(1), pages 117-61, January.
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  3. Elbert Dijkgraaf & Herman Vollebergh, 2004. "A Note on Testing for Environmental Kuznets Curves with Panel Data," Others 0409001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  4. Gene M. Grossman & Alan B. Krueger, 1994. "Economic Growth and the Environment," NBER Working Papers 4634, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. BERTINELLI, Luisito & STROBL, Eric, 2004. "The Environmental Kuznets Curve semi-parametrically revisited," CORE Discussion Papers 2004051, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE). [Downloadable!]
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  6. Douglas Holtz-Eakin & Thomas M. Selden, 1992. "Stoking the Fires? Co2 Emissions and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 4248, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Understanding spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 311-340, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Nordhaus, William D, 1991. "To Slow or Not to Slow: The Economics of the Greenhouse Effect," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(407), pages 920-37, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Martin Wagner & Georg Müller-Fürstenberger, 2004. "The Carbon Kuznets Curve: A Cloudy Picture Emitted by Bad Econometrics?," Diskussionsschriften dp0418, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Daniel L. Millimet & John A. List & Thanasis Stengos, 2003. "The Environmental Kuznets Curve: Real Progress or Misspecified Models?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1038-1047, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Roger Perman & David I. Stern, 2003. "Evidence from panel unit root and cointegration tests that the Environmental Kuznets Curve does not exist," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society and Blackwell Publishing Asia Pty Ltd., vol. 47(3), pages 325-347, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Manne, Alan & Mendelsohn, Robert & Richels, Richard, 1995. "MERGE : A model for evaluating regional and global effects of GHG reduction policies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 17-34, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Grossman, G.M & Krueger, A.B., 1991. "Environmental Impacts of a North American Free Trade Agreement," Papers 158, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Public and International Affairs.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Martin Wagner & Georg Müller-Fürstenberger, 2004. "The Carbon Kuznets Curve: A Cloudy Picture Emitted by Bad Econometrics?," Diskussionsschriften dp0418, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Susanne Dröge & Claudia Kemfert, 2005. "Trade Policy to Control Climate Change: Does the Stick Beat the Carrot?," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 74(2), pages 235-248. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. David Bradford & Rebecca Fender & Stephen Shore & Martin Wagner, 2005. "The Environmental Kuznets Curve: Exploring a Fresh Specification," Contributions to Economic Analysis & Policy, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 4(1), pages 1073-1073. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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