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Mixed Logit Estimation Of Radical Islamic Terrorism In Europe And North America: A Comparative Study

Author

Listed:
  • Carlos Barros

    (ISEG-UTL)

  • Isabel Proença

    (ISEG-UTL)

Abstract

This paper estimates what characteristics (e.g. location, number of casualties, and type of attack) are associated with an Islamic terrorist attack. This is established by identifying the significant determinants of the probability that an attack had been carried out by Islamic terrorists. For Europe, the United States, and Canada, the analysis employs ITERATE data from October 1979 to December 2002 to ascertain the significant characteristics of Islamic terrorist attacks. A random- parameter logit model is used to analyze the probability of such attacks, taking into account the heterogeneity of the sample data. This model outperforms the standard logit model. Some policy implications are presented.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos Barros & Isabel Proença, 2005. "Mixed Logit Estimation Of Radical Islamic Terrorism In Europe And North America: A Comparative Study," Microeconomics 0508005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpmi:0508005
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; prepared on windows; pages: 21
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    File URL: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de/econ-wp/mic/papers/0508/0508005.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Thomas Gries & Tim Krieger & Daniel Meierrieks, 2011. "Causal Linkages Between Domestic Terrorism and Economic Growth," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(5), pages 493-508, June.
    2. Ana Bela Santos Bravo & Carlos Manuel Mendes Dias, 2006. "An Empirical Analysis Of Terrorism: Deprivation, Islamism And Geopolitical Factors," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(4), pages 329-341.
    3. B. Peter Rosendorff & Todd Sandler, 2005. "The Political Economy of Transnational Terrorism," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 49(2), pages 171-182, April.
    4. Frick, Bernd & Barros, Carlos Pestana & Prinz, Joachim, 2010. "Analysing head coach dismissals in the German "Bundesliga" with a mixed logit approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 200(1), pages 151-159, January.
    5. Joan L. Walker & Moshe Ben-Akiva & Denis Bolduc, 2007. "Identification of parameters in normal error component logit-mixture (NECLM) models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(6), pages 1095-1125.
    6. Levan Elbakidze & Yanhong Jin, 2012. "Victim Countries of Transnational Terrorism: An Empirical Characteristics Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(12), pages 2152-2165, December.
    7. A. James Wynne & Chandrashekar Challa & John Palesis & Bernie Farkas, 2015. "A Conceptual Model: Impact Of Usage Of Social Media Tools To Enhance Project Management Success," Portuguese Journal of Management Studies, ISEG, Universidade de Lisboa, vol. 0(2), pages 55-72.
    8. Edouard Kujawski, 2015. "Accounting for Terrorist Behavior in Allocating Defensive Counterterrorism Resources," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(4), pages 365-376, July.
    9. Olive Emil Wetter & Valentino Wüthrich, 2015. "“What is dear to you?” Survey of beliefs regarding protection of critical infrastructure against terrorism," Defense & Security Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(3), pages 185-198, September.
    10. Mumtaz Karatas & Ertan Yakıcı & Abdullah Dasci, 2022. "Solving a bi-objective unmanned aircraft system location-allocation problem," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 319(2), pages 1631-1654, December.
    11. Price Gregory N. & Elu Juliet U., 2017. "Climate Change and Cross-State Islamist Terrorism in Nigeria," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 23(3), pages 1-13, August.
    12. Carlos Pestana Barros & Luis Gil-Alana, 2006. "Eta: A Persistent Phenomenon," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 95-116.
    13. Aniruddha Bagchi & João Ricardo Faria & Timothy Mathews, 2019. "A model of a multilateral proxy war with spillovers," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 179(3), pages 229-248, June.
    14. Horácio C. Faustino & Isabel Proença, 2015. "Immigration And Intra-Industry Trade: The Relevance Of Language, Qualification And Economic Integration," Portuguese Journal of Management Studies, ISEG, Universidade de Lisboa, vol. 0(1), pages 3-18.
    15. Chen Wang & Vicki M. Bier, 2013. "Expert Elicitation of Adversary Preferences Using Ordinal Judgments," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 61(2), pages 372-385, April.
    16. Barros, Carlos Pestana & Passos, Jose & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2006. "The timing of ETA terrorist attacks," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 335-346, April.
    17. Jürges Hendrik & Westermaier Franz G., 2020. "Conflict Intensity and Birth Outcomes – Evidence from the West Bank," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 20(2), pages 1-8, April.
    18. Jülide Yildirim & Nadir Öcal, 2013. "Analysing The Determinants Of Terrorism In Turkey Using Geographically Weighted Regression," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(3), pages 195-209, June.
    19. Carlos Pestana Barros & Isabel Proenca & Joao Ricardo Faria & Luis Gil-Alana, 2007. "Are Usa Citizens At Risk Of Terrorism In Europe?," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(6), pages 495-507.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Islamic radical terrorism; mixed logit model; and public policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War

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