This study examines the link between various monetary policy regimes and the ability to manage inflation and exchange rate risk premiums in the EU candidate countries as they undergo monetary convergence to the eurozone. The underlying hypothesis is that a system of 'flexible inflation targeting' may be an optimal policy choice for managing these two categories of risk. A model of inflation and exchange rate risk premiums within the context of inflation targeting is proposed. Recent trends in these risk premiums in Hungary, the Czech Republic and Poland are tested by using the GARCH(1,1) methodology.
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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Macroeconomics with number
0501037.
Find related papers by JEL classification: E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy P33 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - International Linkages
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Manfred J.M. Neumann & Jrgen von Hagen, 2002.
"Does inflation targeting matter?,"
Review,
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 127-148.
[Downloadable!]
Alberto Alesina & Robert J. Barro, 2001.
"Dollarization,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 381-385, May.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)