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Monetary Convergence And Risk Premiums In The EU Candidate Countries

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Author Info
Lucjan T Orlowski (Sacred Heart University)

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Abstract

This study examines the link between various monetary policy regimes and the ability to manage inflation and exchange rate risk premiums in the EU candidate countries as they undergo monetary convergence to the eurozone. The underlying hypothesis is that a system of 'flexible inflation targeting' may be an optimal policy choice for managing these two categories of risk. A model of inflation and exchange rate risk premiums within the context of inflation targeting is proposed. Recent trends in these risk premiums in Hungary, the Czech Republic and Poland are tested by using the GARCH(1,1) methodology.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Macroeconomics with number 0501037.

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Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: 31 Jan 2005
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0501037

Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 36
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Web page: http://129.3.20.41

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Related research
Keywords: inflation risk premium; exchange rate risk premium; inflation targeting; monetary convergence; transition economies;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
P33 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - International Linkages

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Andrea Schaechter & Marc Zelmer, 2000. "Adopting Inflation Targeting: Practical Issues for Emerging Market Countries," IMF Occasional Papers 202, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Jordi Gali & Tommaso Monacelli, 2002. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," NBER Working Papers 8905, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Manfred J.M. Neumann & Jrgen von Hagen, 2002. "Does inflation targeting matter?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 127-148. [Downloadable!]
  4. Alberto Alesina & Robert J. Barro, 2001. "Dollarization," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 381-385, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1999. "Inflation targeting as a monetary policy rule," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 607-654, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Bofinger, Peter & Wollmershauser, Timo, 2001. "Is there a third way to EMU for the EU accession countries?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 253-274, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Barry Eichengreen, 2002. "Can Emerging Markets Float? Should They Inflation Target?," Working Papers Series 36, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  8. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2001. "From inflation targeting to the euro-peg: A model of monetary convergence for transition economies," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 233-251, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Laurence M. Ball, 1999. "Policy Rules for Open Economies," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 127-156 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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