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On the Dynamics of Trade Patterns

Author

Listed:
  • Andrea Brasili

    (Banca Intesa)

  • Paolo Epifani

    (Bocconi University CESPRI)

  • Rodolfo Helg

    (Cattaneo University LIUC)

Abstract

In this paper we analyse the dynamics of trade patterns in the six largest industrialised countries and in eight fast growing Asian economies. For each of these countries we study the shape of the sectoral distribution of an index of trade specialisation and its evolution over time. Our analysis shows a marked difference between the advanced and the emerging countries as far as the degree of persistence is concerned: the former have in fact a highly persistent trade pattern, whereas the latter show a rapidly changing trade specialisation. However, the two groups of countries are more similar as far as the evolution of the degree of specialisation is concerned: although emerging countries are still more specialised than the industrialised countries, both groups show a tendency toward a reduced polarisation and a more symmetric distribution of the specialisation index. This evidence is in line with the traditional trade theory, in which changing comparative advantage is the determinant of a changing trade pattern. On the contrary, this evidence does not support the idea that self- reinforcing mechanisms are prominent in international trade specialisation.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrea Brasili & Paolo Epifani & Rodolfo Helg, 2000. "On the Dynamics of Trade Patterns," International Trade 0004006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpit:0004006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    trade patterns; trade specialisation; comparative advantages; stochastic kernels;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General

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