IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wiw/wiwrsa/ersa05p787.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

In search of a modelling strategy for projecting internal migration in European countries - Demographic versus economic-geographical approaches

Author

Listed:
  • Leo JG Van Wissen
  • Nicole Gaag
  • Phil Rees
  • John Stillwell

Abstract

Internal migration is the most volatile and difficult to predict component of regional demographic change. A pure demographic approach using age and sex-specific parameters of migration intensities cannot fully capture the migration trends over time. One of the approaches that can be used for a better description of past trends and forecasting of future trends is to use additional non-demographic information such as regional economic indicators. In this paper we compare the predictive performance of pure demographic and extended economic-geographical models using data of four European countries at the so-called NUTS 2 level. The models are nested within a GLM specification%2C that allows both demographic and extended models to be written as specific cases of loglinear models. Therefore model fit and performance can be compared directly.

Suggested Citation

  • Leo JG Van Wissen & Nicole Gaag & Phil Rees & John Stillwell, 2005. "In search of a modelling strategy for projecting internal migration in European countries - Demographic versus economic-geographical approaches," ERSA conference papers ersa05p787, European Regional Science Association.
  • Handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa05p787
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www-sre.wu.ac.at/ersa/ersaconfs/ersa05/papers/787.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:cai:popine:popu_p1986_41n3_0609 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. A Stewart Fotheringham & Phil Rees & Tony Champion & Stamatis Kalogirou & Andy R Tremayne, 2004. "The Development of a Migration Model for England and Wales: Overview and Modelling Out-Migration," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 36(9), pages 1633-1672, September.
    3. Andrei Rogers, 1967. "Matrix Analysis Of Interregional Population Growth And Distribution," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 177-196, January.
    4. P H Rees & A G Wilson, 1973. "Accounts and Models for Spatial Demographic Analysis I: Aggregate Population," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 5(1), pages 61-90, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Vaz, Eric & Campos, Ana Claudia, 2013. "A Multi-Dasymetric Mapping Approach for Tourism," Journal of Tourism, Sustainability and Well-being, Cinturs - Research Centre for Tourism, Sustainability and Well-being, University of Algarve, vol. 1(4), pages 265-277.
    2. Monastiriotis, Vassilis & Kaplanis, Ioannis, 2011. "Flexible employment and cross- regional adjustment," Working Papers 2072/179671, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics.
    3. John Stillwell, 2005. "Inter-regional migration modelling - a review and assessment," ERSA conference papers ersa05p770, European Regional Science Association.
    4. Ian Smith & Rob Atkinson, 2011. "Mobility and the smart, green and inclusive Europe," Local Economy, London South Bank University, vol. 26(6-7), pages 562-576, September.
    5. Villa, Miguel & Alberts, Joop, 1979. "Redistribucion espacial de la poblacion en America Latina," Series Históricas 8679, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    6. Oshan, Taylor M., 2020. "The spatial structure debate in spatial interaction modeling: 50 years on," OSF Preprints 42vxn, Center for Open Science.
    7. Cameron, Gavin & Muellbauer, John & Murphy, Anthony, 2006. "Housing Market Dynamics and Regional Migration in Britain," CEPR Discussion Papers 5832, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. A.G. Wilson, 1968. "Models in Urban Planning: a Synoptic Review of Recent Literature," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 5(3), pages 249-276, November.
    9. repec:ris:cieodp:2013_022 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Adam Dennett & Alan Wilson, 2013. "A Multilevel Spatial Interaction Modelling Framework for Estimating Interregional Migration in Europe," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 45(6), pages 1491-1507, June.
    11. Villa, Miguel & Alberts, Joop, 1980. "Redistribución espacial de la población en América Latina," Series Históricas 9756, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    12. Thomas Niedomysl, 2008. "Residential Preferences for Interregional Migration in Sweden: Demographic, Socioeconomic, and Geographical Determinants," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 40(5), pages 1109-1131, May.
    13. Herrchen, Beate, 1989. "Bevölkerungsmodelle: Konzepte, Anwendungen, Erweiterungsmöglichkeiten," Discussion Papers, Series II 84, University of Konstanz, Collaborative Research Centre (SFB) 178 "Internationalization of the Economy".

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa05p787. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Gunther Maier (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.ersa.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.