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Climate change, conflict, and cooperation : global analysis of the resilience of international river treaties to increased water variability

Author

Listed:
  • Dinar, Shlomi
  • Katz, David
  • De Stefano, Lucia
  • Blankespoor, Brian

Abstract

Although water variability has already been observed across river basins, climate change is predicted to increase variability. Such environmental changes may aggravate political tensions, especially in regions that are not equipped with an appropriate institutional apparatus. Increased variability is also likely to challenge regions with existing institutional capacity. This paper argues that the best attempts to assess the ability of states to deal with variability in the future rest with considering how agreements have fared in the past. The paper investigates to what extent particular mechanisms and institutional designs help mitigate inter-country tensions over shared water. The analysis specifically focuses on identifying which water allocation mechanisms and institutional features provide better opportunities for mitigating conflict given that water allocation issues tend to be most salient among riparians. Water-related events from the Basins at Risk events database are used as the dependent variable to test hypotheses regarding the viability, or resilience, of treaties over time. Climatic, geographic, political, and economic variables are used as controls. The analysis is conducted for the years 1948-2001 with the country dyad as the level of observation. Findings pertaining to the primary explanatory variables suggest that country dyads governed by treaties with water allocation mechanisms exhibiting both flexibility and specificity evince more cooperative behavior. Country dyads governed by treaties with a larger sum of institutional mechanisms likewise evince a higher level of cooperation, although certain institutional mechanisms are more important than others.

Suggested Citation

  • Dinar, Shlomi & Katz, David & De Stefano, Lucia & Blankespoor, Brian, 2014. "Climate change, conflict, and cooperation : global analysis of the resilience of international river treaties to increased water variability," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6916, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6916
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Brian Blankespoor & Alan Basist & Ariel Dinar & Shlomi Dinar & Harold Houba & Neil Thomas, 2014. "Assessing the Economic and Political Impacts of Climate Change on International River Basins using Surface Wetness in the Zambezi and Mekong Basins," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-005/II, Tinbergen Institute.
    2. Jacob D. Petersen-Perlman & Itay Fischhendler, 2018. "The weakness of the strong: re-examining power in transboundary water dynamics," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 275-294, April.
    3. Mukherjee, Sacchidananda & Chakraborty, Debashis, 2016. "Urbanization and Demand for Water and Sanitation Services: An Analysis on Cross-Region Investment Requirements," MPRA Paper 74767, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Charlotte De Bruyne & Itay Fischhendler & Yoram Z. Haftel, 2020. "Design and change in transboundary freshwater agreements," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(2), pages 321-341, September.
    5. Maryam Jafroudi, 2018. "Enhancing climate resilience of transboundary water allocation agreements: the impact of shortening the agreement’s lifetime on cooperation stability," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 18(5), pages 707-722, October.
    6. Jacob Rightnar & Ariel Dinar, 2020. "The Welfare Implications of Bankruptcy Allocation of the Colorado River Water: The Case of the Salton Sea Region," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(8), pages 2353-2370, June.
    7. Yuyu Zeng & Harold Houba & Ariel Dinar & Miroslav Marence, 2016. "Damming Trans-boundary Rivers: A Welfare Analysis of Conflict and Cooperation," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 16-090/II, Tinbergen Institute.

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