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Credit-less recoveries : neither a rare nor an insurmountable challenge

Author

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  • Sugawara, Naotaka
  • Zalduendo, Juan

Abstract

This paper examines why some countries experience economic recoveries without pick-up of bank credit (credit-less) and how different this recovery pattern is from the case where credit is increased as an economy recovers (credit-with). To answer these questions, the paper uses quarterly data covering 96 countries and identifies 272 recovery episodes. It finds that more than 25 percent of all recoveries are credit-less and around 45 percent of all credit-less recoveries occurred in 2009-10. It also finds that output and investment growth tends to be lower in credit-less events but, by eight quarters after the trough date, the gap between credit-less and credit-with episodes is mostly exhausted. Results of the probit estimations show that the size of the downturn and the extent of external adjustment are associated with the likelihood of credit-less recoveries. Moreover, fiscal loosening tends to be related to credit-less events while monetary easing and a country's decision to seek an International Monetary Fund-supported program reduce the probability of credit-less recoveries. Finally, the model suggests that many countries in the Europe and Central Asia region were likely to experience credit-less recoveries following the global financial crisis in 2008/09. What is more worrisome for them is the fact that they are facing another negative external shock.

Suggested Citation

  • Sugawara, Naotaka & Zalduendo, Juan, 2013. "Credit-less recoveries : neither a rare nor an insurmountable challenge," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6459, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6459
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Katalin Bodnár & Zsolt Kovalszky & Emese Hudák, 2014. "Recovery from crises and lending," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 13(4), pages 57-85.
    3. Palotai, Dániel & Baksay, Gergely, 2017. "Válságkezelés és gazdasági reformok Magyarországon, 2010-2016 [Recession management and economic reforms in Hungary, 2010-2016]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 698-722.
    4. Romanos Priftis & Anastasia Theofilakou, 2021. "Growth effects of corporate balance sheet adjustments in the EU," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(2), pages 773-801, February.
    5. Sophia Dimelis & Ioannis Giotopoulos & Helen Louri, 2017. "Can Firms Grow Without Credit? A Quantile Panel Analysis in the Euro Area," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 153-183, June.
    6. Corrado, Luisa & Rossi, Isolina, 2019. "Anatomy of credit-less recoveries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).

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