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Credit growth in emerging Europe : a cause for stability concerns?

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  • Sirtaine, Sophie
  • Skamnelos, Ilias

Abstract

High credit growth in Emerging Europe, generally considered a sign of catching-up with the"old"Europe, has begun receiving considerable attention among investors and policymakers alike. Given heightened global risks and the demands under the European Union accession process, the need to better understand this high credit growth's drivers, riskiness, and the possible macroeconomic and financial stability consequences is strong. The authors adopt a holistic approach in reviewing the rapid credit growth experienced in the region, examining macroeconomic, financial sector, corporate sector, and asset market consequences and possible vulnerabilities. They consider three possible scenarios-a catching-up with older European countries, a soft landing as experienced by Portugal in the early 2000s, and a hard landing as experienced by Asia in 1997.

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  • Sirtaine, Sophie & Skamnelos, Ilias, 2007. "Credit growth in emerging Europe : a cause for stability concerns?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4281, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4281
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    1. Festic, Mejra & Kavkler, Alenka & Repina, Sebastijan, 2011. "The macroeconomic sources of systemic risk in the banking sectors of five new EU member states," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 310-322, February.
    2. Meixing Dai, 2012. "External Constraint and Financial Crises with Balance Sheet Effects," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(4), pages 567-585, March.
    3. Beck, Thorsten & Feyen, Erik, 2013. "Benchmarking financial systems : introducing the financial possibility frontier," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6615, The World Bank.
    4. Irena Vodenska & Lou Chitkushev, 2013. "Impact of Euro Adoption on Emerging European Countries," Management, University of Primorska, Faculty of Management Koper, vol. 8(1), pages 49-70.
    5. Małgorzata Skibińska, 2018. "Transmission of monetary policy and exchange rate shocks under foreign currency lending," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 506-525, July.
    6. Festic, Mejra & Kavkler, Alenka, 2012. "The Roots of the Banking Crisis in the New EU Member States: A Panel Regression Approach," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 20-40, March.
    7. Masso, Jaan & Meriküll, Jaanika & Vahter, Priit, 2013. "Shift from gross profit taxation to distributed profit taxation: Are there effects on firms?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 1092-1105.
    8. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Benkraiem, Ramzi & Miloudi, Anthony & Lahiani, Amine, 2017. "Production function with electricity consumption and policy implications in Portugal," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 588-599.
    9. Bruna Skarica, 2014. "Determinants of non-performing loans in Central and Eastern European countries," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 38(1), pages 37-59.
    10. Bezemer, Dirk J, 2009. "Disaggregated Credit Flows and Growth in Central Europe," MPRA Paper 15896, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Bezemer, Dirk J & Werner, Richard A, 2009. "Disaggregated Credit Flows and Growth in Central Europe," MPRA Paper 17456, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. ROMAN Angela & SARGU Alina Camelia, 2012. "Lending In Foreign Currency And Current Challenges At European Level," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1(2), pages 588-594, December.
    13. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "The Credit Boom in the EU New Member States: Bad Luck or Bad Policies?," IMF Working Papers 2010/130, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Brzoza-Brzezina, Michał & Chmielewski, Tomasz & Niedźwiedzińska, Joanna, 2007. "Substitution between domestic and foreign currency loans in Central Europe. Do central banks matter?," MPRA Paper 6759, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Mr. Joe Crowley, 2015. "Central and Commercial Bank Balance Sheet Risk Before, During, and After the Global Financial Crisis," IMF Working Papers 2015/047, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Mara Pirovano, 2013. "Household and firm leverage, capital flows and monetary policy in a small open economy," Working Paper Research 246, National Bank of Belgium.
    17. Kalyuzhnova, Yelena & Nygaard, Christian, 2009. "Resource nationalism and credit growth in FSU countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4700-4710, November.
    18. Dr. Rezarta Shkurti (Perri) & Dr. Brunilda Duraj, 2010. "The Assessment Of The Financial Soundness Of The Banking Sectors In Balkan Countries Using "Early Warning Indicators" - A Comparative Study With Policy Implications," Journal Articles, Center For Economic Analyses, pages 33-48, June.
    19. Angela Roman & Alina Camelia Åžargu, 2011. "Eu New Member States Households' Banking Indebtedness And It'S Implications: An Overview," Annales Universitatis Apulensis Series Oeconomica, Faculty of Sciences, "1 Decembrie 1918" University, Alba Iulia, vol. 2(13), pages 1-28.
    20. Mr. Joe Crowley, 2008. "Credit Growth in the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia Region," IMF Working Papers 2008/184, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Hao Thi Kim Do & Nguyet Thi Minh Nguyen & Trung Hai Le, 2017. "Effects of the Credit Boom on the Soundness of Vietnamese Commercial Banks," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 8(3), pages 57-73, July.
    22. Dušan Stojanović & Danilo Stojanović, 2015. "Excessive Credit Growth Or Catching Up Process: The Case Of Central, Eastern And Southeastern European Countries," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 60(206), pages 7-44, July - Se.

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    Keywords

    Banks&Banking Reform; Financial Intermediation; Financial Crisis Management&Restructuring; Economic Theory&Research; Investment and Investment Climate;
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