This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Regime switching in stochastic models of commodity prices: An application to an optimal tree harvesting problem

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Shan Chen (Department of Economics, University of Waterloo)
Margaret Insley (Department of Economics, University of Waterloo)

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

This paper investigates a regime switching model of stochastic lumber prices in the context of an optimal tree harvesting problem. Using lumber derivatives prices, two lumber price models are calibrated: a regime switching model and a single regime model. In the regime switching model, the lumber price can be in one of two regimes in which different mean reverting price processes prevail. An optimal tree harvesting problem is specified in terms of a linear complementarity problem which is solved using a fully implicit finite difference, fully-coupled, numerical approach. The land value and critical harvesting prices are found to be significantly different depending on which price model is used. The regime switching model shows promise as a parsimonious model of timber prices that can be incorporated into forestry investment problems.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://economics.uwaterloo.ca/documents/ChenInsleyRegime.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by University of Waterloo, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 08003.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation: Aug 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wat:wpaper:08003

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Waterloo, Ontario, N2L 3G1
Phone: (519) 888-4567 ext 3695
Fax: (519) 725-0530
Web page: http://economics.uwaterloo.ca/
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Jennifer Lehman).

Related research
Keywords: optimal tree harvesting; regime switching; calibration; lumber derivatives prices; fully implicit finite difference approach;

Other versions of this item:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Schwert, G. William, 1996. "Markup pricing in mergers and acquisitions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 153-192, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Morck, Randall & Schwartz, Eduardo & Stangeland, David, 1989. "The Valuation of Forestry Resources under Stochastic Prices and Inventories," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(04), pages 473-487, December. [Downloadable!]
  3. Bessembinder, Hendrik, et al, 1995. " Mean Reversion in Equilibrium Asset Prices: Evidence from the Futures Term Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 361-75, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Alvarez, Luis H.R. & Koskela, Erkki, 2007. "Taxation and rotation age under stochastic forest stand value," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 113-127, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Margaret Insley & Kimberly Rollins, 2005. "On Solving the Multirotational Timber Harvesting Problem with Stochastic Prices: A Linear Complementarity Formulation," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, American Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 87(3), pages 735-755, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Margaret Insley & Tony Wirjanto, 2008. "Contrasting two approaches in real options valuation: contingent claims versus dynamic programming," Working Papers 08002, University of Waterloo, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  7. Saphores, Jean-Daniel & Khalaf, Lynda & Pelletier, Denis, 2002. " On Jumps and ARCH Effects in Natural Resource Prices: An Application to Pacific Northwest Stumpage Prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, American Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 84(2), pages 387-400, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Reed, William J & Clarke, Harry R, 1990. "Harvest Decisions and Asset Valuation for Biological Resources Exhibiting Size-Dependent Stochastic Growth," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 31(1), pages 147-69, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Raymond, Jennie E & Rich, Robert W, 1997. "Oil and the Macroeconomy: A Markov State-Switching Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(2), pages 193-213, May.
  10. Insley, Margaret & Lei, Manle, 2007. "Hedges and Trees: Incorporating Fire Risk into Optimal Decisions in Forestry Using a No-Arbitrage Approach," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 32(03), December. [Downloadable!]
  11. Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1997. " The Stochastic Behavior of Commodity Prices: Implications for Valuation and Hedging," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 923-73, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Malcolm P. Baker & E. Scott Mayfield & John E. Parsons, 1998. "Alternative Models of Uncertain Commodity Prices for Use with Modern Asset Pricing Methods," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 19(1), pages 115-148.
Full references

Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? Each page is provided with a technical contact, in case something is not right with the supplied information. See under "publisher info".

This page was last updated on 2009-10-25.


This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.