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Daily and intraday application of various architectures of the LSTM model in algorithmic investment strategies on Bitcoin and the S&P 500 Index

Author

Listed:
  • Katarzyna Kryńska

    (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences, Quantitative Finance Research Group)

  • Robert Ślepaczuk

    (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences, Quantitative Finance Research Group, Department of Quantitative Finance)

Abstract

This thesis investigates the use of various architectures of the LSTM model in algorithmic investment strategies. LSTM models are used to generate buy/sell signals, with previous levels of Bitcoin price and the S&P 500 Index value as inputs. Four approaches are tested: two are regression problems (price level prediction) and the other two are classification problems (prediction of price direction). All approaches are applied to daily, hourly, and 15-minute data and are using a walk-forward optimization procedure. The out-of-sample period for the S&P 500 Index is from February 6, 2014 to November 27, 2020, and for Bitcoin it is from January 15, 2014 to December 1, 2020. We discover that classification techniques beat regression methods on average, but we cannot determine if intra-day models outperform inter-day models. We come to the conclusion that the ensembling of models does not always have a positive impact on performance. Finally, a sensitivity analysis is performed to determine how changes in the main hyperparameters of the LSTM model affect strategy performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Katarzyna Kryńska & Robert Ślepaczuk, 2022. "Daily and intraday application of various architectures of the LSTM model in algorithmic investment strategies on Bitcoin and the S&P 500 Index," Working Papers 2022-25, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    • Handle: RePEc:war:wpaper:2022-25
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    File URL: https://www.wne.uw.edu.pl/download_file/2146/0
    File Function: First version, 2022
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Illia Baranochnikov & Robert Ślepaczuk, 2022. "A comparison of LSTM and GRU architectures with novel walk-forward approach to algorithmic investment strategy," Working Papers 2022-21, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    2. Burton G. Malkiel, 2005. "Reflections on the Efficient Market Hypothesis: 30 Years Later," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 40(1), pages 1-9, February.
    3. Schulmeister, Stephan, 2009. "Profitability of technical stock trading: Has it moved from daily to intraday data?," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 190-201, October.
    4. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    5. Wun-Hua Chen & Jen-Ying Shih & Soushan Wu, 2006. "Comparison of support-vector machines and back propagation neural networks in forecasting the six major Asian stock markets," International Journal of Electronic Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 1(1), pages 49-67.
    6. Jan Grudniewicz & Robert Ślepaczuk, 2021. "Application of machine learning in quantitative investment strategies on global stock markets," Working Papers 2021-23, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Karol Chojnacki & Robert Ślepaczuk, 2023. "This study compares well-known tools of technical analysis (Moving Average Crossover MAC) with Machine Learning based strategies (LSTM and XGBoost) and Ensembled Machine Learning Strategies (LSTM ense," Working Papers 2023-15, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    machine learning; deep learning; recurrent neural networks; LSTM; algorithmic trading; ensemble investment strategy; intra-day trading; S&P 500 Index; Bitcoin;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C4 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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