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Liberalization of trade flows under TTIP from a small country perspective. The case of Poland

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  • Jan Hagemejer

    (Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw; National Bank of Poland)

Abstract

The empirical ex-ante evaluations of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership are similar on aggregate but suggest a large heterogeneity of the TTIP impact at the individual country level. We aim to provide a comprehensive evaluation of the possible TTIP effects for the economy of Poland using a computable general equilibrium model. In our simulation scenarios we use the estimates of NTBs that allow us to differentiate the impact of NTBs on trade of Poland, the remaining NMS aggregate, Germany, the largest trading partner of Poland and the rest of EU-15. We show that from a point of view of a small country, where most of international trade is concentrated on exchange with one or a few neighboring trading partners, such as Poland, simultaneous trade liberalization with a third partner will not bring sizeable gains to its economy. We observe US-EU15 trade expansion to be crowding out some of the trade in the most important Polish trading sectors, such as chemicals and motor vehicles. The unfavorable change in the terms of trade makes the gains from trade small while some sectors reduce output by a considerable amount.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan Hagemejer, 2015. "Liberalization of trade flows under TTIP from a small country perspective. The case of Poland," Working Papers 2015-17, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    • Handle: RePEc:war:wpaper:2015-17
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    File URL: http://www.wne.uw.edu.pl/index.php/download_file/1764/
    File Function: First version, 2015
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lionel Fontagné & Julien Gourdon & Sébastien Jean, 2013. "Transatlantic Trade: Whither Partnership, Which Economic Consequences?," CEPII Policy Brief 2013-01, CEPII research center.
    2. Baldwin, Richard E, 1992. "Measurable Dynamic Gains from Trade," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(1), pages 162-174, February.
    3. Francois, Joseph & Bradley McDonald, 1996. "Liberalization and Capital Accumulation in the GTAP Model," GTAP Technical Papers 310, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    4. Fontagné, Lionel & Guillin, Amélie & Mitaritonna, Cristina, 2010. "Estimations of Tariff Equivalents for the Services Sectors," Conference papers 331941, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    5. Joseph Francois & Olga Pindyuk, 2013. "Consolidated Data on International Trade in Services," IIDE Discussion Papers 20130101, Institue for International and Development Economics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jan Hagemejer & Jan Jakub Michałek & Karolina Pawlak, 2021. "Trade Implications of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership for Poland’s Agri-Food Trade," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 13(1), pages 75-103, March.
    2. Pietrzyck, Katja & Petersen, Brigitte & Jarzębowski, Sebastian, 2018. "The Role of quality management in the context of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Part nership (TTIP): the case of the polish Agri-food sector," Problems of Agricultural Economics / Zagadnienia Ekonomiki Rolnej 276627, Institute of Agricultural and Food Economics - National Research Institute (IAFE-NRI).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    TTIP; trade liberalization; computable general equilibrium; Poland;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models

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