IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/war/wpaper/2012-02.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Cointegration Based Trading Strategy For Soft Commodities Market

Author

Listed:
  • Piotr Arendarski

    (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences)

  • Łukasz Postek

    (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences; National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute)

Abstract

This paper explores cointegration among three of the most popular agriculture soft commodities (corn, soya and wheat) and its potential usefulness for dynamic asset allocation strategies. Johansen tests indicate that natural logarithms of weekly prices of corn, soya and wheat futures are cointegrated and two cointegrating vectors exist. Formal tests show that the estimated long-run relationship is stable even beyond the estimation sample. We use obtained results to create simple trading rules and verify their profitability. The trading strategies’ risk-adjusted abnormal returns look to be significant based on the Sharpe ratio criterion and they are low correlated with the stock market.

Suggested Citation

  • Piotr Arendarski & Łukasz Postek, 2012. "Cointegration Based Trading Strategy For Soft Commodities Market," Working Papers 2012-02, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    • Handle: RePEc:war:wpaper:2012-02
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.wne.uw.edu.pl/inf/wyd/WP/WNE_WP68.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2012
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ramaprasad Bhar & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2006. "Linkages among agricultural commodity futures prices: some further evidence from Tokyo," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(8), pages 535-539.
    2. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    3. Leland L. Johnson, 1960. "The Theory of Hedging and Speculation in Commodity Futures," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 27(3), pages 139-151.
    4. A. G. Malliaris & Jorge L. Urrutia, 1996. "Linkages between agricultural commodity futures contracts," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(5), pages 595-609, August.
    5. G. Geoffrey Booth & Cetin Ciner, 2001. "Linkages among agricultural commodity futures prices: evidence from Tokyo," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(5), pages 311-313.
    6. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    7. Brenner, Robin J. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Arbitrage, Cointegration, and Testing the Unbiasedness Hypothesis in Financial Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(1), pages 23-42, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Youngho Chang & Zheng Fang & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2017. "Volatility and Causality in Strategic Commodities: Characteristics, Myth and Evidence," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 9(8), pages 162-178, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ramaprasad Bhar & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2006. "Linkages among agricultural commodity futures prices: some further evidence from Tokyo," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(8), pages 535-539.
    2. Yoichi Tsuchiya & David McMillan, 2015. "Linkages among commodity futures prices in the recent financial crisis: An application of cointegration tests with a structural break," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 1012436-101, December.
    3. Roselyne Joyeux & George Milunovich, 2010. "Testing market efficiency in the EU carbon futures market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(10), pages 803-809.
    4. Narayan, Seema & Smyth, Russell, 2015. "The financial econometrics of price discovery and predictability," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 380-393.
    5. Ramaprasad Bhar & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2006. "Component structures of agricultural commodity futures traded on the Tokyo Grain Exchange," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, March.
    6. Yuanlong Ge & Holly H. Wang & Sung K. Ahn, 2010. "Cotton market integration and the impact of China's new exchange rate regime," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 41(5), pages 443-451, September.
    7. Watkins, Clinton & McAleer, Michael, 2002. "Cointegration analysis of metals futures," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 207-221.
    8. Clinton Watkins & Michael McAleer, 2003. "Pricing of Non-ferrous Metals Futures on the London Metal Exchange," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-213, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    9. Lisbeth Funding la Cour, 1995. "A Component® based Analysis of the danish Long-run Money Demand Relation," Discussion Papers 95-18, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    10. Muhammad Shahbaz & Vassilios G. Papavassiliou & Amine Lahiani & David Roubaud, 2023. "Are we moving towards decarbonisation of the global economy? Lessons from the distant past to the present," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 2620-2634, July.
    11. Valérie Mignon & Christophe Hurlin, 2007. "Une synthèse des tests de cointégration sur données de panel," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 180(4), pages 241-265.
    12. Rangan Gupta & Josine Uwilingiye, 2008. "Measuring The Welfare Cost Of Inflation In South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 76(1), pages 16-25, March.
    13. Ansgar Belke & Robert Czudaj, 2010. "Is Euro Area Money Demand (Still) Stable? Cointegrated VAR Versus Single Equation Techniques," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 56(4), pages 285-315.
    14. Peter Rowland & Hugo OLiveros C., 2003. "Colombian Purchasing Power Parity Analysed Using a Framework of Multivariate Cointegration," Borradores de Economia 252, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    15. Duca, John V., 2013. "Did the commercial paper funding facility prevent a Great Depression style money market meltdown?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 747-758.
    16. Katsoulacos Yannis & Metsiou Eleni & Tsionas Efthymios & Konstantakopoulou Ioanna, 2014. "Quantitative Price Tests in Antitrust Market Definition with an Application to the Savory Snacks Markets," Journal of Agricultural & Food Industrial Organization, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-33, January.
    17. Ramona Dumitriu & Razvan Stefanescu, 2015. "The Relationship Between Romanian Exports And Economic Growth After The Adhesion To European Union," Risk in Contemporary Economy, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, pages 17-26.
    18. Pär Österholm, 2005. "The Taylor Rule: A Spurious Regression?," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(3), pages 217-247, July.
    19. Boris Hofmann, 2003. "Bank Lending and Property Prices: Some International Evidence," Working Papers 222003, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    20. Garg, Bhavesh & Prabheesh, K.P., 2021. "Testing the intertemporal sustainability of current account in the presence of endogenous structural breaks: Evidence from the top deficit countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 365-379.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    cointegration; soft commodities; trading rule;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:war:wpaper:2012-02. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Marcin Bąba (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fesuwpl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.