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Asset Price and Wealth Dynamics Under Heterogeneous Expectations

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Author Info
Carl Chiarella () (School of Finance and Economics, University of Technology, Sydney)
Xue-Zhong He () (School of Finance and Economics, University of Technology, Sydney)

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Abstract

In order to characterize asset price and wealth dynamics arising from the interaction of heterogeneous agents with CRRA utility, a discrete time stationary model in terms of return and wealth proportions (among different types of agents) is established. When fundamentalists and chartists are the main heterogeneous agents in the model, it is found that in the presence of heterogeneous agents the stationary model can have multiple steady-states. The steady-state is unstable when the chartists extrapolate strongly and (locally) stable when they extrapolate weakly. The convergence to steady-state follows an optimal selection principle - the return and wealth proportions tend to the steady-state which has relatively higher return. More importantly, heterogeneity can generate instability which, under the stochastic processes of the dividend yield and extrapolation rates, results in switching of the return among different states, such as steady-state, periodic and aperiodic cycles from time to time. To model that is finally developed displays the essential characteristics of the standard asset price dynamics model assumed in continuous time finance, in that the asset price is fluctuating around a geometrically growing trend. The model also displays the volatility clustering that is an essential feature of empirically observed assets returns.

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Paper provided by Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney in its series Research Paper Series with number 56.

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Date of creation: 01 Jun 2001
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Handle: RePEc:uts:rpaper:56

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1997. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(5), pages 1059-1096, September.
  3. Lux, Thomas, 1998. "The socio-economic dynamics of speculative markets: interacting agents, chaos, and the fat tails of return distributions," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 143-165, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Lux, T. & M. Marchesi, . "Volatility Clustering in Financial Markets: A Micro-Simulation of Interacting Agents," Discussion Paper Serie B 437, University of Bonn, Germany, revised Jul 1998.
  6. Carl Chiarella & Xue-Zhong He, 2001. "Dynamics of Beliefs and Learning Under aL Processes - The Homogeneous Case," Research Paper Series 53, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney. [Downloadable!]
  7. Carl Chiarella, 1992. "The Dynamics of Speculative Behaviour," Working Paper Series 13, School of Finance and Economics, University of Technology, Sydney. [Downloadable!]
  8. Chiarella, Carl & He, Xue-Zhong, 2003. "Dynamics of beliefs and learning under aL-processes -- the heterogeneous case," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 503-531, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Cars H. Hommes, 2001. "Financial Markets as Nonlinear Adaptive Evolutionary Systems," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 01-014/1, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Sethi, Rajiv, 1996. "Endogenous regime switching in speculative markets," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 99-118, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Xue-Zhong He & Carl Chiarella, 1999. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Risk and Learning in a Simple Asset-Pricing Model," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 223, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Reiner Franke & Tim Nesemann, 1999. "Two destabilizing strategies may be jointly stabilizing," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 69(1), pages 1-18, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Gaunersdorfer, A. & Hommes, C.H. & Wagener, F.O.O., 2000. "Bifurcation Routes to Volatility Clustering," CeNDEF Working Papers 00-04, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
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  14. Gaunersdorfer, A. & Hommes, C.H., 2000. "A Nonlinear Structural Model for Volatility Clustering," CeNDEF Working Papers 00-02, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
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  15. Franke, Reiner & Sethi, Rajiv, 1998. "Cautious trend-seeking and complex asset price dynamics," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 61-79, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Lux, T. & M. Marchesi, . "Scaling and Criticality in a Stochastic Multi-Agent Model of a Financial Market," Discussion Paper Serie B 438, University of Bonn, Germany, revised Jul 1998.
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  18. Gaunersdorfer, Andrea, 2000. "Endogenous fluctuations in a simple asset pricing model with heterogeneous agents," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 799-831, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. repec:att:wimass:19976 is not listed on IDEAS
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  25. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  26. Carl Chiarella & Xue-Zhong He, 2000. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Risk and Learning in a Simple Asset Pricing Model with a Market Maker," Research Paper Series 35, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney. [Downloadable!]
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  27. Lux, Thomas, 1995. "Herd Behaviour, Bubbles and Crashes," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(431), pages 881-96, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  28. Balasko, Yves & Royer, Daniel, 1996. "Stability of Competitive Equilibrium with Respect to Recursive and Learning Processes," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 319-348, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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