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Identification of the Effects of Dynamic Treatments by Sequential Conditional Independence Assumptions

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Michael Lechner ()
Ruth Miquel ()

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Abstract

This paper approaches the causal analysis of sequences of interventions from a potential outcome perspective. The identifying power of several different assumptions concerning the connection between the dynamic selection process and the outcomes of different sequences is discussed. The assumptions invoke different randomisation assumptions which are compatible with different selection regimes. Parametric forms are not involved. When participation in the sequences is decided every period depending on its success so far, the resulting endogeneity problem destroys nonparametric identification for many parameters of interest. However, some interesting dynamic forms of the average treatment effect are identified. As an empirical example for the application of this approach, we reexamine the effects of training programmes for the unemployed in West Germany.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen in its series University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2005 with number 2005-17.

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Length: 48 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2005
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Handle: RePEc:usg:dp2005:2005-17

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Guido W. Imbens, 1999. "The Role of the Propensity Score in Estimating Dose-Response Functions," NBER Technical Working Papers 0237, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Lechner, Michael, 2004. "Sequential Matching Estimation of Dynamic Causal Models," IZA Discussion Papers 1042, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. James J. Heckman & Edward J. Vytlacil, 2000. "Local Instrumental Variables," NBER Technical Working Papers 0252, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Behrman, Jere R & Sengupta, Piyali & Todd, Petra, 2005. "Progressing through PROGRESA: An Impact Assessment of a School Subsidy Experiment in Rural Mexico," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(1), pages 237-75, October.
  5. Donald B. Rubin, 2004. "Direct and Indirect Causal Effects via Potential Outcomes," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics, Finnish Statistical Society, Norwegian Statistical Association and Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 31(2), pages 161-170. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Heckman, James J, 1979. "Sample Selection Bias as a Specification Error," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(1), pages 153-61, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Michael Gerfin & Michael Lechner, 2002. "A Microeconometric Evaluation of the Active Labour Market Policy in Switzerland," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(482), pages 854-893, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Donald B. Rubin, 2005. "Causal Inference Using Potential Outcomes: Design, Modeling, Decisions," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 100, pages 322-331, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Heckman, James J. & Robb, Richard Jr., 1985. "Alternative methods for evaluating the impact of interventions : An overview," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1-2), pages 239-267. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Michael Lechner, 2000. "Programme Heterogeneity and Propensity Score Matching: An Application to the Evaluation of Active Labour Market Policies," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0647, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  11. Jere R. Behrman & Yingmei Cheng & Petra E. Todd, 2004. "Evaluating Preschool Programs When Length of Exposure to the Program Varies: A Nonparametric Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 108-132, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Lechner, Michael & Miquel, Ruth & Wunsch, Conny, 2005. "Long run Effects of Public Sector Sponsored Training in West Germany," CEPR Discussion Papers 4851, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. S. A. Murphy, 2003. "Optimal dynamic treatment regimes," Journal Of The Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 65(2), pages 331-355. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Lechner, Michael, 1999. "Earnings and Employment Effects of Continuous Off-the-Job Training in East Germany after Unification," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(1), pages 74-90, January.
  15. Imbens, Guido W & Angrist, Joshua D, 1994. "Identification and Estimation of Local Average Treatment Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(2), pages 467-75, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  16. Meyer, Bruce D, 1995. "Natural and Quasi-experiments in Economics," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(2), pages 151-61, April.
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  17. J.D. Angrist & Guido W. Imbens & D.B. Rubin, 1993. "Identification of Causal Effects Using Instrumental Variables," NBER Technical Working Papers 0136, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Michael Lechner, 2005. "A Note on Endogenous Control Variables in Evaluation Studies," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2005 2005-16, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen. [Downloadable!]
  19. Edward Vytlacil, 2002. "Independence, Monotonicity, and Latent Index Models: An Equivalence Result," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 331-341, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Charles F. Manski, 2004. "Social Learning from Private Experiences: The Dynamics of the Selection Problem," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 71(2), pages 443-458, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Chamberlain, Gary, 1987. "Asymptotic efficiency in estimation with conditional moment restrictions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 305-334, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Abbring, Jaap H., 2003. "Dynamic Econometric Program Evaluation," IZA Discussion Papers 804, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  23. Michael Lechner, 1999. "Identification and Estimation of Causal Effects of Multiple Treatments Under the Conditional Independence Assumption," IZA Discussion Papers 91, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  24. Ruth Miquel, 2003. "Identification of Effects of Dynamic Treatments with a Difference-in-Differences Approach," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2003 2003-06, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen. [Downloadable!]
  25. Annette Bergemann & Bernd Fitzenberger & Stefan Speckesser, 2005. "Evaluating the Dynamic Employment Effects of Training Programs in East Germany Using Conditional Difference-in-Differences," IZA Discussion Papers 1848, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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  26. Guido W. Imbens, 2004. "Nonparametric Estimation of Average Treatment Effects Under Exogeneity: A Review," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 4-29, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  27. Jaap H. Abbring & Gerard J. van den Berg, 2003. "The Nonparametric Identification of Treatment Effects in Duration Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(5), pages 1491-1517, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  28. Steven Lehrer & Weili Ding, 2004. "Estimating Dynamic Treatment Effects from Project STAR," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 252, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  29. Ruth Miquel, 2002. "Identification of Dynamic Treatment Effects by Instrumental Variables," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2002 2002-11, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen. [Downloadable!]
  30. Chamberlain, Gary, 1982. "The General Equivalence of Granger and Sims Causality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 569-81, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  31. Hahn, Jinyong & Todd, Petra & Van der Klaauw, Wilbert, 2001. "Identification and Estimation of Treatment Effects with a Regression-Discontinuity Design," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(1), pages 201-09, January.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jaap Abbring & James Heckman, 2008. "Dynamic policy analysis," CeMMAP working papers CWP05/08, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies. [Downloadable!]
  2. Hagen, Tobias, 2003. "Do Fixed-Term Contracts Increase the Long-Term Employment Opportunities of the Unemployed?," ZEW Discussion Papers 03-49, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  3. James J. Heckman & Salvador Navarro, 2005. "Dynamic Discrete Choice and Dynamic Treatment Effects," IZA Discussion Papers 1790, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Lechner, Michael & Miquel, Ruth & Wunsch, Conny, 2005. "Long run Effects of Public Sector Sponsored Training in West Germany," CEPR Discussion Papers 4851, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Lechner, Michael & Miquel, Ruth & Wunsch, Conny, 2005. "The curse and blessing of training the unemployed in a changing economy : the case of East Germany after unification," IAB Discussion Paper 200514, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Carlos A. Flores & Alfonso Flores-Lagunes, . "Identification and Estimation of Casual Mechanisms and Net Effects of a Treatment," Working Papers 0706, University of Miami, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  7. Martin Biewen & Bernd Fitzenberger & Aderonke Osikominu & Marie Waller, 2007. "Which Program for Whom? Evidence on the Comparative Effectiveness of Public Sponsored Training Programs in Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 2885, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Michael Lechner, 2002. "Mikroökonometrische Evaluation arbeitsmarktpolitischer Massnahmen," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2002 2002-20, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen. [Downloadable!]
  9. Steven Lehrer & Weili Ding, 2004. "Estimating Dynamic Treatment Effects from Project STAR," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 252, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  10. Michael Lechner, 2006. "The Relation of Different Concepts of Causality in Econometrics," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2006 2006-15, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen. [Downloadable!]
  11. Wang-Sheng Lee & Sandy Suardi, 2008. "Minimum Wages and Employment: Reconsidering the Use of a Time-Series Approach as an Evaluation Tool," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2008n20, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne. [Downloadable!]
  12. Michael Lechner, 2005. "A Note on Endogenous Control Variables in Evaluation Studies," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2005 2005-16, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen. [Downloadable!]
  13. Crépon, Bruno & Ferracci, Marc & Jolivet, Grégory & van den Berg, Gerard J., 2008. "Active Labor Market Policy Effects in a Dynamic Setting," IZA Discussion Papers 3848, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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