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Inflation, Political Instability and Stockmarket Volatility in Interwar Germany

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Author Info
Hans Joachim Voth ()

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Abstract

What determined the volatility of asset prices in Germany between the wars? This paper argues that the influence of political factors has been overstated. The majority of events increasing political uncertainty had little or no effect on the value of German assets and the volatility of returns on them. Instead, it was inflation (and the fear of it) that is largely responsible for most of the variability in asset returns.

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File URL: http://www.econ.upf.edu/docs/papers/downloads/535.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra in its series Economics Working Papers with number 535.

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Date of creation: Mar 2001
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Handle: RePEc:upf:upfgen:535

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Web page: http://www.econ.upf.edu/

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Related research
Keywords: Inflation; stock returns; volatility of asset returns; political uncertainty; Germany (interwar);

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies
G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
N14 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Growth and Fluctuations - - - Europe: 1913-
N24 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - Europe: 1913-

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  1. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-36, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Schwert, G William, 1989. " Why Does Stock Market Volatility Change over Time?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(5), pages 1115-53, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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