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Measuring illicit financial flows: A gravity model approach to estimate international trade misinvoicing

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  • Lourenço S. Paz

Abstract

Illicit financial flows have recently attracted the attention of academia, practitioners, and multilateral organizations who consider them harmful to economic development. Some observers suggest that many of these flows occur via the misinvoicing of international trade transactions. This study develops a novel methodology based on the gravity model of international trade to estimate illicit financial flows using publicly available product-level international trade data.

Suggested Citation

  • Lourenço S. Paz, 2022. "Measuring illicit financial flows: A gravity model approach to estimate international trade misinvoicing," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2022-24, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    • Handle: RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2022-24
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Derek Kellenberg & Arik Levinson, 2019. "Misreporting trade: Tariff evasion, corruption, and auditing standards," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(1), pages 106-129, February.
    2. Céline Carrère & Christopher Grigoriou, 2014. "Can Mirror Data Help To Capture Informal International Trade?," UNCTAD Blue Series Papers 65, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    3. Tony Addison & Miguel Niño†Zarazúa & Jukka Pirttilä, 2018. "Fiscal Policy, State Building and Economic Development," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(2), pages 161-172, March.
    4. Maria de Boyrie & Simon Pak & John Zdanowicz, 2005. "The impact of Switzerland's money laundering law on capital flows through abnormal pricing in international trade," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(4), pages 217-230.
    5. Yalta, A. Yasemin & Demir, Ishak, 2010. "The Extent of Trade Mis-Invoicing in Turkey: Did Post-1990 Policies Matter?," MPRA Paper 30186, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    Cited by:

    1. Acciai, Elia & Belloni, Michele & Della Giusta, Marina & Segre, Giovanna, 2023. "Illicit Shadows: An Economic Analysis of Trade Gaps in Cultural Goods through the Italian Market," IZA Discussion Papers 16282, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Gravity model; Illicit financial flows; International trade; Misinvoicing; Transportation cost;
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