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The relationship between rainfall and human density and its implications for future water stress in sub-Saharan Africa

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  • David le Blanc
  • Romain Perez

Abstract

This paper uses Geographic Information System (GIS) data on population density, rainfall and climate change scenarios in order to identify areas that will be subject to increased water stress due to insufficient precipitation to support their projected population levels in 2050. Density increases across the continent should lead to a significant increase in the extent of water stressed zones, especially around the Sahel belt and in Eastern Africa. Changes in rainfall, the pattern of which remains inherently uncertain today, could mitigate or compound those effects. Consequences of unsustainably high local densities such as migrations are bound to become more prevalent.

Suggested Citation

  • David le Blanc & Romain Perez, 2007. "The relationship between rainfall and human density and its implications for future water stress in sub-Saharan Africa," Working Papers 57, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs.
    • Handle: RePEc:une:wpaper:57
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    File URL: http://www.un.org/esa/desa/papers/2007/wp57_2007.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Barrios, Salvador & Bertinelli, Luisito & Strobl, Eric, 2006. "Climatic change and rural-urban migration: The case of sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 357-371, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Laura Medwid & Elizabeth A. Mack, 2021. "A Scenario-based Approach for Understanding Changes in Consumer Spending Behavior in Response to Rising Water Bills," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 44(5), pages 487-514, September.
    2. Wim Naudé, 2008. "Conflict, Disasters, and No Jobs: Reasons for International Migration from Sub-Saharan Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2008-85, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    3. Francis Rathinam & Sayak Khatua & Zeba Siddiqui & Manya Malik & Pallavi Duggal & Samantha Watson & Xavier Vollenweider, 2021. "Using big data for evaluating development outcomes: A systematic map," Campbell Systematic Reviews, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 17(3), September.
    4. Yonas Alem & Mathilde Maurel & Katrin Millock, 2016. "Migration as an Adaptation Strategy to Weather Variability: An Instrumental Variables Probit Analysis," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01955941, HAL.
    5. Flavia Olivieri & Steven Hendrik Andreas Koop & Kees Van Leeuwen & Jan Hofman, 2022. "Enhancing Governance Capacity to Ensure a Long-Term Water Supply: The Case of Windhoek, Namibia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-17, February.
    6. Coniglio, Nicola D. & Pesce, Giovanni, 2015. "Climate variability and international migration: an empirical analysis," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(4), pages 434-468, August.
    7. Frankema, Ewout & Papaioannou, Kostadis, 2017. "Withdrawn Paper," CEPR Discussion Papers 11795, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Don Driscoll & Adam Felton & Philip Gibbons & Annika Felton & Nicola Munro & David Lindenmayer, 2012. "Priorities in policy and management when existing biodiversity stressors interact with climate-change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 111(3), pages 533-557, April.
    9. Mulubrhan Amare & Hosaena Ghebru & George Mavrotas & Adebayo Ogunniyi, 2024. "The Role of Land Inheritance in Youth Migration and Employment Choices: Evidence from Rural Nigeria," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 36(1), pages 135-160, February.
    10. Keiti Kondi & Stefanija Veljanoska, 2023. "Internal Migration as a Response to Soil Degradation: Evidence from Malawi," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2023004, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    climate change; rainfall; climate modeling; demographic growth; migrations; Africa;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q25 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Water
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth

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