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Microsimulation of residential activity for alternative urban development scenarios: A case study on brussels and flemish brabant

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  • Frederik Priem
  • Philip Stessens
  • Frank Canters

Abstract

The historically rooted suburbanization of Flanders and the Brussels Capital Region (BCR) in Belgium has resulted in severe urban sprawl, traffic congestion, natural land degradation and many related problems. Recent policy proposals put forward by the two regions aim for more compact urban development in well-serviced areas. Yet, it is unclear how these proposed policies may impact residential dynamics over the coming decades. To address this issue, we developed a Residential Microsimulation (RM) framework that spatially refines coarse-scale demographic projections at the district level to the level of census tracts. The validation of simulated changes from 2001 to 2011 reveals that the proposed framework succeeds in modelling historic trends and clearly outperforms a random model. To support simulation from 2011 to 2040, two alternative urban development scenarios are defined. The Business As Usual (BAU) scenario essentially represents a continuation of urban sprawl development, whereas the Sustainable Development (SUS) scenario strives for higher-density development around strategic well-serviced nodes in line with proposed policies. This study demonstrates how residential microsimulation supported by scenario analysis can play a constructive role in urban policy design and evaluation.

Suggested Citation

  • Frederik Priem & Philip Stessens & Frank Canters, 2020. "Microsimulation of residential activity for alternative urban development scenarios: A case study on brussels and flemish brabant," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/305003, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    • Handle: RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/305003
    Note: SCOPUS: ar.j
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    Keywords

    Compact development; Discrete choice modelling; Flanders; Residential location choice; Scenario analysis; Urban sprawl;
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