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Explaining the Growth of Government Spending in South Africa

Author

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  • James Alm

    (Department of Economics, Tulane University)

  • Abel Embaye

    (Department of Economics, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University)

Abstract

What determines government spending in South Africa? The paper estimates the determinants of real per capita government spending in the Republic of South Africa, using annual data for the period 1960 to 2007, a tumultuous period during which South Africa experienced a variety of internally imposed changes (e.g., the abolition of apartheid, changes in political institutions) and externally generated shocks (e.g., war, oil shocks). Using multivariate cointegration techniques, we find that per capita government spending, per capita income, the tax share, and the wage rate are cointegrated, a result that supports the notion that government spending is associated not only with per capita income and the true cost of government service provision as given by the wage rate but also to the fiscal illusion caused by budget deficits. We also find evidence that per capita government spending was positively affected by external shocks. These external shocks seem to play a significant role in explaining the dynamics of government spending growth.

Suggested Citation

  • James Alm & Abel Embaye, 2011. "Explaining the Growth of Government Spending in South Africa," Working Papers 1105, Tulane University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:tul:wpaper:1105
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Phindile Mdluli & Precious Mncayi & Thabang Mc Camel, 2019. "Examining Factors that Drive Government Spending in South Africa," Proceedings of International Academic Conferences 9912246, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    2. Francois J. Stofberg & Jan H. van Heerden & Heinrich R. Bohlmann, 2020. "A Fiscus for Better Economic and Social Development in South Africa," Working Papers 202072, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    3. Glenda Maluleke, 2017. "The Determinants of Government Expenditure: Analysis of the Empirical Literature from 1995 To 2016," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 13(2), pages 212-219, April.
    4. Mabugu, Ramos & Robichaud, Veronique & Maisonnave, Helene & Chitiga, Margaret, 2013. "Impact of fiscal policy in an intertemporal CGE model for South Africa," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 775-782.
    5. E. Chuke Nwude & Tarila Boloupremo, 2018. "Public Expenditure and National Income: Time Series Evidence from Nigeria," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 8(1), pages 71-76.
    6. Cormier, Benjamin, 2021. "Interests over institutions: political-economic constraints on public debt management in developing countries," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 112595, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Laurie J. Bates & Resul Cesur & Rexford E. Santerre, 2015. "Short‐run marginal medical costs from booze and butts: Evidence from the states," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 81(4), pages 1074-1095, April.
    8. Andreas Wörgötter & Sihle Nomdebevana, 2020. "Aggregate Public-Private Remuneration Patterns in South Africa," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 48(4), pages 461-474, December.
    9. Kojo Menyah & Yemane Wolde-Rufael, 2012. "Wagner'S Law Revisited: A Note From South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 80(2), pages 200-208, June.
    10. Alimi, R. Santos, 2014. "A Time Series and Panel Analysis of Government Spending and National Income," MPRA Paper 56994, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Omoshoro-Jones, Oyeyinka Sunday, 2016. "A Cointegration and Causality Test on Government Expenditure –Economic Growth Nexus: Empirical Evidence from a South African Province," MPRA Paper 102085, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 17 Oct 2017.
    12. Stofberg, F.J. & van Heerden, J.H. & Horridge, M. & Roos, L., 2022. "A fiscus for better economic and social development in South Africa," Conference papers 333392, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    median voter theorem; government spending; cointegration; unit roots; error correction method;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General

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