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Aggregate Consumption and Debt Accumulation: An Empirical Examination of US Household Behavior

Author

Listed:
  • Yun Kim

    (Department of Economics, Trinity College)

  • Mark Setterfield

    (Department of Economics, Trinity College)

  • Yuan Mei

    (Department of Economics, Trinity College)

Abstract

The outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008 witnessed a marked contraction in US consumption spending that had hitherto been boosted by historically high levels of household debt-financing. These events question the validity of conventional models of consumption based on the life-cycle hypothesis, with its benign view of debt as a neutral instrument of optimal intertemporal expenditure smoothing. This paper develops an alternative account of consumption spending based on the Keynesian relative income hypothesis, which claims that current income, its distribution, household borrowing, and household indebtedness all affect current consumption. The paper then provides an empirical investigation of US consumption spending since the 1960s. The results of this inquiry are not compatible with the life-cycle hypothesis, but are congruent with our alternative Keynesian theory of consumption based on the relative income hypothesis.

Suggested Citation

  • Yun Kim & Mark Setterfield & Yuan Mei, 2012. "Aggregate Consumption and Debt Accumulation: An Empirical Examination of US Household Behavior," Working Papers 1204, Trinity College, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:tri:wpaper:1204
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Ricardo Barradas & Ines Tomas, 2023. "Household indebtedness in the European Union countries: Going beyond the mainstream interpretation," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 76(304), pages 21-49.
    3. Detzer, Daniel, 2016. "Financialisation, debt and inequality: Scenarios based on a stock flow consistent model," IPE Working Papers 64/2016, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    4. Cem Oyvat & Oğuz Öztunalı & Ceyhun Elgin, 2020. "Wage‐led versus profit‐led demand: A comprehensive empirical analysis," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(3), pages 458-486, July.
    5. Daniel Detzer, 2017. "Financialisation, Debt and Inequality: Export-led Mercantilist and Debt-led Private Demand Boom Economies in a Stock-flow consistent Model," Working Papers 2016-03, Universita' di Cassino, Dipartimento di Economia e Giurisprudenza.
    6. Robert A. Blecker, 2016. "Wage-led versus profit-led demand regimes: the long and the short of it," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 4(4), pages 373-390, October.
    7. Glenn Lauren Moore & Engelbert Stockhammer, 2018. "The drivers of household indebtedness reconsidered: An empirical evaluation of competing arguments on the macroeconomic determinants of household indebtedness in OECD countries," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(4), pages 547-577, October.
    8. Ana Romão & Ricardo Barradas, 2024. "Macroeconomic determinants of households' indebtedness in Portugal: What really matters in the era of financialisation?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1), pages 383-401, January.
    9. Engelbert Stockhammer & Joel Rabinovich & Niall Reddy, 2018. "Distribution, wealth and demand regimes in historical perspective," FMM Working Paper 14-2018, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    10. de Bondt, Gabe & Gieseck, Arne & Zekaite, Zivile & Herrero, Pablo, 2019. "Disaggregate income and wealth effects in the largest euro area countries," Working Paper Series 2343, European Central Bank.
    11. Stockhammer, Engelbert & Wildauer, Rafael, 2018. "Expenditure Cascades, Low Interest Rates or Property Booms? Determinants of Household Debt in OECD Countries," Review of Behavioral Economics, now publishers, vol. 5(2), pages 85-121, September.
    12. Engelbert Stockhammer & Rafael Wildauer, 2016. "Debt-driven growth? Wealth, distribution and demand in OECD countries," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 40(6), pages 1609-1634.
    13. Engelbert Stockhammer & Karsten Kohler, 2019. "Financialization and demand regimes in advanced economies," Working Papers PKWP1911, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    14. Prante, Franz J., 2017. "Macroeconomic effects of personal and functional income inequality: Theory and empirical evidence for the US and Germany," IPE Working Papers 83/2017, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    15. Engelbert Stockhammer, 2015. "Wage-led versus profit-led demand: What have we learned? A Kalecki-Minsky view," Working Papers PKWP1512, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    16. Stockhammer, Engelbert & Rabinovich, Joel & Reddy, Niall, 2017. "Distribution, wealth and demand regimes in historical perspective. USA, UK, France and Germany, 1855-2010," Economics Discussion Papers 2017-5, School of Economics, Kingston University London.
    17. Betül Mutlugün, 2022. "Endogenous income distribution and aggregate demand: Empirical evidence from heterogeneous panel structural vector autoregression," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(2), pages 583-637, May.
    18. Gabe Jacob de Bondt & Arne Gieseck & Zivile Zekaite, 2020. "Thick modelling income and wealth effects: a forecast application to euro area private consumption," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 257-286, January.
    19. Hein, Eckhard, 2022. "Varieties of demand and growth regimes: Post-Keynesian foundations," IPE Working Papers 196/2022, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Consumption; household borrowing; household debt; life cycle hypothesis; relative income hypothesis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth

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