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Exponential smoothing forecasts: Taming the Bullwhip Effect when demand is seasonal

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  • Udenio, Maximiliano
  • Vatamidou, Eleni
  • Fransoo, Jan C.

    (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management)

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  • Udenio, Maximiliano & Vatamidou, Eleni & Fransoo, Jan C., 2023. "Exponential smoothing forecasts: Taming the Bullwhip Effect when demand is seasonal," Other publications TiSEM 8fca6329-83b9-4a49-a2aa-e, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:tiu:tiutis:8fca6329-83b9-4a49-a2aa-e4e959d4f761
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    File URL: https://pure.uvt.nl/ws/portalfiles/portal/60224006/IJPR_2022_FAV_3Ple_smoothing_paper.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hyndman, Rob J. & Koehler, Anne B. & Snyder, Ralph D. & Grose, Simone, 2002. "A state space framework for automatic forecasting using exponential smoothing methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 439-454.
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    3. Makridakis, Spyros & Hibon, Michele, 1991. "Exponential smoothing: The effect of initial values and loss functions on post-sample forecasting accuracy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 317-330, November.
    4. Maximiliano Udenio & Eleni Vatamidou & Jan C. Fransoo & Nico Dellaert, 2017. "Behavioral causes of the bullwhip effect: An analysis using linear control theory," IISE Transactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(10), pages 980-1000, October.
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    6. Petropoulos, Fotios & Wang, Xun & Disney, Stephen M., 2019. "The inventory performance of forecasting methods: Evidence from the M3 competition data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 251-265.
    7. John Bossons, 1966. "The Effects of Parameter Misspecification and Non-Stationarity on the Applicability of Adaptive Forecasts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 12(9), pages 659-669, May.
    8. Gérard P. Cachon & Taylor Randall & Glen M. Schmidt, 2007. "In Search of the Bullwhip Effect," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 9(4), pages 457-479, April.
    9. P. J. Harrison, 1967. "Exponential Smoothing and Short-Term Sales Forecasting," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 13(11), pages 821-842, July.
    10. Disney, S.M. & Farasyn, I. & Lambrecht, M. & Towill, D.R. & de Velde, W. Van, 2006. "Taming the bullwhip effect whilst watching customer service in a single supply chain echelon," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 173(1), pages 151-172, August.
    11. Li, Qinyun & Disney, Stephen M. & Gaalman, Gerard, 2014. "Avoiding the bullwhip effect using Damped Trend forecasting and the Order-Up-To replenishment policy," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 3-16.
    12. Warburton, R.D.H. & Disney, S.M., 2007. "Order and inventory variance amplification: The equivalence of discrete and continuous time analyses," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(1-2), pages 128-137, October.
    13. Xueli Zhan & Qin Zhang & Wenfeng Xie, 2018. "Dynamic Performance and Stability Research of VMI-APIOBPCS in Apparel Industry Based on Control Theory," International Journal of Enterprise Information Systems (IJEIS), IGI Global, vol. 14(2), pages 56-76, April.
    14. Li Chen & Hau L. Lee, 2012. "Bullwhip Effect Measurement and Its Implications," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 60(4), pages 771-784, August.
    15. Wright, David & Yuan, Xin, 2008. "Mitigating the bullwhip effect by ordering policies and forecasting methods," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 587-597, June.
    16. Disney, S. M. & Towill, D. R., 2003. "On the bullwhip and inventory variance produced by an ordering policy," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 157-167, June.
    17. Spiliotis, Evangelos & Makridakis, Spyros & Kaltsounis, Anastasios & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios, 2021. "Product sales probabilistic forecasting: An empirical evaluation using the M5 competition data," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 240(C).
    18. Dejonckheere, J. & Disney, S. M. & Lambrecht, M. R. & Towill, D. R., 2003. "Measuring and avoiding the bullwhip effect: A control theoretic approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 147(3), pages 567-590, June.
    19. Bayraktar, Erkan & Lenny Koh, S.C. & Gunasekaran, A. & Sari, Kazim & Tatoglu, Ekrem, 2008. "The role of forecasting on bullwhip effect for E-SCM applications," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(1), pages 193-204, May.
    20. Hoberg, Kai & Bradley, James R. & Thonemann, Ulrich W., 2007. "Analyzing the effect of the inventory policy on order and inventory variability with linear control theory," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 176(3), pages 1620-1642, February.
    21. Wang, Xun & Disney, Stephen M., 2016. "The bullwhip effect: Progress, trends and directions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 250(3), pages 691-701.
    22. Cantor, David E. & Katok, Elena, 2012. "Production smoothing in a serial supply chain: A laboratory investigation," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 781-794.
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