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A meta-analysis of the total economic impact of climate change

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  • Richard S.J. Tol

    (University of Sussex)

Abstract

Earlier meta-analyses of the economic impact of climate change are updated with more data, with three new results: (1) The central estimate of the economic impact of global warming is always negative. (2) The confidence interval about the estimates is much wider. (3) Elicitation methods are most pessimistic, econometric studies most optimistic. Two previous results remain: (4) The uncertainty about the impact is skewed towards negative surprises. (5) Poorer countries are much more vulnerable than richer ones. A meta-analysis of the impact of weather shocks reveals that studies, which relate economic growth to temperature levels, cannot agree on the sign of the impact whereas studies, which make economic growth a function of temperature change do agree on the sign but differ an order of magnitude in effect size. The former studies posit that climate change has a permanent effect on economic growth, the latter that the effect is transient. The impact on economic growth implied by studies of the impact of climate change is close to the growth impact estimated as a function of weather shocks. The social cost of carbon shows a similar pattern to the total impact estimates, but with more emphasis on the impacts of moderate warming in the near and medium term. Keywords: climate change; weather shocks; economic growth; social cost of carbon

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  • Richard S.J. Tol, 2022. "A meta-analysis of the total economic impact of climate change," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 22-056/VIII, Tinbergen Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20220056
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    1. Richard S. J. Tol, 2023. "Social cost of carbon estimates have increased over time," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 13(6), pages 532-536, June.
    2. Joxe Mari Barrutiabengoa & Julián Cubero & Rafael Doménech & Javier Andrés, 2023. "Global | Bienestar y Coste Social del Carbono [Global | Social Welfare and the Social Cost of Carbon]," Working Papers 23/04, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    3. Fangzhi Wang & Hua Liao & Richard S. J. Tol & Changjing Ji, 2023. "Endogenous preference for non-market goods in carbon abatement decision," Papers 2312.11010, arXiv.org.
    4. Fangzhi Wang & Hua Liao & Richard S. J. Tol, 2023. "Baumol's Climate Disease," Papers 2312.00160, arXiv.org.
    5. Choudhury, Tonmoy & Kayani, Umar Nawaz & Gul, Azeem & Haider, Syed Arslan & Ahmad, Sareer, 2023. "Carbon emissions, environmental distortions, and impact on growth," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).

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    Keywords

    Climate change; weather shocks; economic growth; social cost of carbon;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • O44 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Environment and Growth
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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